Hello, everybody. I'm honored to be here to talk to you, and what I'm going to talk about today is luck and justice and the relation between them.
Hammaga salom. Siz bilan suhatlashish men uchun sharaf, va bugun men omad va adolat hamda ularning aloqadorligini gapirmoqchiman.
Some years ago, a former student of mine called me to talk about his daughter. It turns out his daughter was a high school senior, was seriously interested in applying to Swarthmore, where I taught, and he wanted to get my sense of whether she would get in. Swarthmore is an extremely hard school to get into. So I said, "Well, tell me about her." And he told me about her, what her grades were like, her board scores, her extracurricular activities. And she just sounded like a superstar, wonderful, wonderful kid. So I said, "She sounds fabulous. She sounds like just the kind of student that Swarthmore would love to have." And so he said, "Well, does that mean that she'll get in?" And I said, "No. There just aren't enough spots in the Swarthmore class for everybody who's good. There aren't enough spots at Harvard or Yale or Princeton or Stanford. There aren't enough spots at Google or Amazon or Apple. There aren't enough spots at the TED Conference. There are an awful lot of good people, and some of them are not going to make it." So he said, "Well, what are we supposed to do?" And I said, "That's a very good question."
Bir necha yil oldin mening sobiq talabam qizi haqida gaplashish uchun menga qo'ng'iroq qildi. Uning litseyning yuqori sinfida o'qiydigan qizi men ta'lim beradigan Svartmor kollejiga hujjat topshirishni jin dildan istar ekan, u qizi o'qishga kira olish yo kirmasligi haqida mening fikrimni bilmoqchi edi. Svatmorga o'qishga kirish juda ham qiyin. Shu sababdan "Menga u haqida gapirib berchi?" dedim. Va u qizi haqida, uning baholari, imtihonda to'plagan ballari haqida, darsdan tashqari mashg'ulotlari haqida gapirib berdi. U shunchaki super yulduzligi ayon edi, ajoyib, juda ham ajoyib qiz. Shuda men "U misli ko'rilmagan ajoyib qiz. U Svartmor ega bo'lishni istaydigan talabaning aynan o'zi ekanligi ko'rinib turibdi" dedim. Shunda u "Demak, bu u o'qishga kira oladi deganimi?" deb so'radi. Men esa "Yo'q" deb javob berdim. "Svartmor sinfida yaxshi odamlar uchun yetarlicha joy yo'q. Garvardda ham, Yelda ham, Prinstonda ham, Stendfordda ham joylar yetarli emas. Google, Amazon yoki Appleda ham joylar yetarli emas. Hattoki, TED konferensiyasida ham joylar yetarli emas. Yaxshi insonlar juda ham ko'p, lekin ba'zilari buni uddalay olmaydi". U esa "Xo'sh, unda biz nima qilishimiz kerak?" dedi. Va men "Bu juda ham yaxshi savol" dedim.
What are we supposed to do? And I know what colleges and universities have done. In the interest of fairness, what they've done is they've kept ratcheting up the standards because it doesn't seem fair to admit less qualified people and reject better qualified people, so you just keep raising the standards higher and higher until they're high enough that you can admit only the number of students that you can fit.
Biz nima qilishimiz kerak? Men kollej va universitetlar yo'l tutganini bilaman. Adolatli bo'lishi uchun ular me'zonlarni oshirishni davom ettirgan, chunki malakasi kam odamlarni qabul qilish va yuqori malakalilarni rad etish adolatsizlik bo'lardi, shuning uchun standartlar o'zingiz mos bo'lgan talabalar safidan joy olishingiz uchun yetarli darajada yuqori bo'lmagunicha siz ularni yanada yuqoriroq darajada ko'tarishda davom etaverasiz.
And this violates a lot of people's sense of what justice and fairness is. People in American society have different opinions about what it means to say that some sort of process is just, but I think there's one thing that pretty much everyone agrees on, that in a just system, a fair system, people get what they deserve.
Bu esa ko'p odamlarning adolat va xolislik haqidagi fikrini butunlay o'zgartiradi. Amerika jamiyatida odamlar biror-bir jarayonni adolatli deyish qanday ma'noni anglatishi haqida turlicha fikrga ega, lekin menimcha, deyarli barcha insonlar aynan bitta fikrga qo'shilishadi, qonuniylik tizimida, adolat tizimida odamlar o'zi loyiq narsagagina erishadi.
And what I was telling my former student is that when it comes to college admissions, it just isn't true that people get what they deserve. Some people get what they deserve, and some people don't, and that's just the way it is.
Men sobiq talabamga o'qishga kirish haqida gap ketganda odamlar o'zlari munosib bo'lgan narsaga erishishlari shunchaki haqiqat emasligi haqida aytdim. Ba'zi insonlari o'zlari munosib bo'lgan narsalarga erishishadi, ba'zilari esa yo'q, hayot o'zi shunday.
When you ratchet up requirements as colleges have done, what you do is you create a crazy competition among high school kids, because it's not adequate to be good, it's not adequate to be good enough, you have to be better than everybody else who is also applying. And what this has done, or what this has contributed to, is a kind of epidemic of anxiety and depression that is just crushing our teenagers. We are wrecking a generation with this kind of competition.
Agar siz kollej talablarini qondirsangiz siz o'rta maktab o'quvchilari o'rtasida juda kuchli raqobatni yaratasiz, chunki yaxshi bo'lishning o'zi yetarli emas, talablarni qondirish ham yetarli emas, siz boshqa hujjat topshirgan barcha talabalardan yaxshiroq bo'lishingiz kerak. Xo'sh, bu nimaga olib keldi, yoki nimaga hissa qo'shdi, bu shunchaki o'smirlarimizni ezib kelayotgan xavotir va depressiya epidemiyasi edi xolos. Biz bunday raqobat bilan butun avlodni barbod qilyabmiz.
As I was thinking about this, it occurred to me there's a way to fix this problem. And here's what we could do: when people apply to college, we distinguish between the applicants who are good enough to be successful and the ones who aren't, and we reject the ones who aren't good enough to be successful, and then we take all of the others, and we put their names in a hat, and we just pick them out at random and admit them. In other words, we do college admissions by lottery, and maybe we do job offers at tech companies by lottery, and -- perish the thought -- maybe we even make decisions about who gets invited to talk at TED by lottery.
Men bu haqida o'ylar ekanman bu muammoni hal qilishning bir usuli borligi xayolimga keldi. Xo'sh, biz nima qilishimiz mumkin: insonlar kollejga hujjat topshirgan paytda biz abituriyentlarni muvaffaqiyatga erisha oladigan va erisha olmaydiganlarga ajiratib olamiz, va muvaffaqiyatga erisha olmaydiganlarni rad etamiz, keyin boshqalarning barchasini olib ularning ismlarini ko'rib chiqamiz, biz o'ylab o'tirmasdan ularni tanlab olamiz va ularni o'qishga qabul qilamiz. Boshqacha qilib aytganda, kollejga qabulni lotereya orqali amalga oshiramiz, balki biz texnologik kompaniyalarda ish takliflarini ham lotereya orqali berarmiz, bu ahmoqona fikrni unutamiz, ehtimol TED da nutq so'zlash uchun kimni taklif qilishimizni ham lotereyadan aniqlarmiz.
Now, don't misunderstand me, a lottery like this is not going to eliminate the injustice. There will still be plenty of people who don't get what they deserve. But at least it's honest. It reveals the injustice for what it is instead of pretending otherwise, and it punctures the incredible pressure balloon that our high school kids are now living under.
Hozir meni noto'g'ri tushunmang, bunday lotereya adolatsizlikni bartaraf eta olmaydi. Shunda ham o'zlari munosib narsaga erisha olmaydigan odamlar ko'p bo'laveradi. Lekin bu oz bo'lsa ham adolatdan bo'lardi. Boshqacha ko'rsatish o'rniga u nima uchun adolatsizlik bo'lganini ochib berardi, va u hozir bizning o'rta maktab o'quvchilarimiz yashayotgan juda katta bosim pufagini yorib yuboradi.
So why is it that this perfectly reasonable proposal, if I do say so myself, doesn't get any serious discussion? I think I know why. I think it's that we hate the idea that really important things in life might happen by luck or by chance, that really important things in our lives are not under our control. I hate that idea. It's not surprising that people hate that idea, but it simply is the way things are.
Xo'sh, nima sababdan bu juda ham o'rinli taklif, agar men o'zimga shunday desam, bu jiddiy munozaraga sabab bo'lmaydimi? Buning sababini bilaman. O'ylaymanki, biz mana bunday fikrni yomon ko'ramiz: hayotdagi eng muhim narsalar omad yoki tasodifan sodir bo'lishi mumkin, hayotimizdagi chindan ham muhim voqealar bizning nazoratimiz ostida emas. Men bu fikrni yomon ko'raman. Insonlar bu fikrni yoqtirmasliklari ajablanarli hol emas, lekin bu shunchaki oddiy haqiqat.
First of all, college admissions already is a lottery. It's just that the admissions officers pretend that it isn't. So let's be honest about it.
Birinchidan kollejga kirish allaqachon lotereya orqali amalga oshiriladi. Shunchaki qabul komissiyasi aslida unday bo'lmaganday qilib ko'rsatishadi. Keling bu narsaga vijdonan yondashaylik.
And second, I think if we appreciated that it was a lottery, it would also get us to acknowledge the importance of good fortune in almost every one of our lives.
Va ikkinchidan, o'ylaymanki, agar biz buni lotereya ekanligini tushunib yetsak, bu hayotimizning deyarli har bir qismida omad juda ham muhimligini anglab yetishimizga yordam beradi.
Take me. Almost all the most significant events in my life have occurred, to a large degree, as a result of good luck. When I was in seventh grade, my family left New York and went to Westchester County. Right at the beginning of school, I met a lovely young girl who became my friend, then she became my best friend, then she became my girlfriend and then she became my wife. Happily, she's been my wife now for 52 years. I had very little to do with this. This was a lucky accident.
Misol uchun meni olaylik. Hayotimdagi deyarli barcha eng muhim voqealar asosan omad tufayli sodir bo'lgan. Men yettinchi sinfligimda oilam bilan Nyu-Yorkdan ketib, Vestchester okrugiga ko'chib o'tdik. O'quv yilining boshida men juda yoqimtoy qiz bilan tanishdim, u mening do'stim bo'ldi, keyin u mening eng yaqin do'stimga aylandi, undan so'ng esa sevgilim bo'ldi, va nihoyat u mening turmush o'rtog'imga aylandi. Baxtimga, 52 yildan buyon u mening umr yo'ldoshim, hozir ham. Bu voqeaga hech qanday aloqam yo'q edi. Bu shunchaki omadli tasodif edi.
I went off to college, and in my first semester, I signed up for a class in introduction to psychology. I didn't even know what psychology was, but it fit into my schedule and it met requirements, so I took it. And by luck, the class was taught by a superstar introductory psychology teacher, a legend. Because of that, I became a psychology major.
Men kollejga o'qishga kirdim, va birinchi semestrda, psixologiyaga kirish kursiga yozildim. Men hatto psixologiya nimaligini bilmasdim, lekin u mening jadvalimga va talablarimga mos tushdi, va shu kursni tanladim. Omadni qarangki, darsni mashhur afsonaviy psixologiya o'qituvchisi o'tar edi. Shu sababli men psixologiya fani mutaxassisi bo'lib yetishdim.
Went off to graduate school. I was finishing up. A friend of mine who taught at Swarthmore decided he didn't want to be a professor anymore, and so he quit to go to medical school. The job that he occupied opened up, I applied for it, I got it, the only job I've ever applied for. I spent 45 years teaching at Swarthmore, an institution that had an enormous impact on the shape that my career took.
Magistraturaga o'qishga kirdim. Men o'qishni tamomlash arafasida edim. Svartmorda dars beradigan do'stim bundan buyog'iga professor bo'lib ishlamaslikka qaror qildi, va tibbiyot maktabiga borish uchun ishdan bo'shadi. U egallab turgan ish o'rni bo'shadi, men unga ariza topshirib ishga kirdim, u umrim davomida ariza topshirgan yagona ishim edi. 45 yil Svartmorda dars berdim, u karyeram shakllanishiga juda katta ta'sir ko'rsatgan institut edi.
And to just give one last example, I was giving a talk about some of my work in New York, and there was somebody in the audience who came up to me after my talk. He introduced himself. He said, "My name is Chris. Would you like to give a talk at TED?" And my response was, "What's TED?" Well, I mean, he told me, and TED then wasn't what it is now. But in the intervening years, the talks I've given at TED have been watched by more than 20 million people.
Eng so'nggi misolni aytadigan bo'lsam, men Nyu-Yorkda ba'zi ishlarim haqida ma'ruza o'qiyotgan edim, ma'ruzadan so'ng tinglovchilarimdan biri meni oldimga keldi. U o'zini tanishtirdi. U "Mening ismim Kris. Siz TEDda ma'ruza o'qishni istaysizmi?" dedi. Men esa "TED nima?" deya javob qaytardim. Aytmoqchimanki, u menga bu haqida aytib berdi, va o'sha paytda TED hozirgidek emas edi. Ammo yillar davomida, mening TEDda qilgan ma'ruzalarimni 20 milliondan ortiq odam tomosha qildi.
So the conclusion is, I'm a lucky man. I'm lucky about my marriage. I'm lucky about my education. I'm lucky about my career. And I'm lucky to have had a platform and a voice at something like TED.
Demak, xulosa shuki, men omadli insonman. Oila qurish borasida omadliman. Ta'lim olish borasida omadliman. Men kasb tanlash borasida omadliman. Va TEDda o'z o'rnim va ovozimga ega bo'lish borasida ham omadliman.
Did I deserve the success I've had? Sure I deserve that success, just as you probably deserve your success. But lots of people also deserve successes like ours who haven't had it.
Men erishgan muvaffaqiyatiga loyiqmidim? Albatta, siz loyiq bo'lganingiz kabi, men ham bu muvaffaqiyatga munosibman. Ammo bunday yutuqlarga ega bo'lmagan ko'plab insonlar ham biznikidek muvaffaqiyatlarga munosibdir.
So do people get what they deserve? Is society just? Of course not. Working hard and playing by the rules is just no guarantee of anything. If we appreciate the inevitability of this kind of injustice and the centrality of good fortune, we might ask ourselves what responsibilities do we have to the people we are now celebrating as heroes in this time of the pandemic when a serious illness befalls their family to make sure that they remain whole and their lives aren't ruined by the cost of dealing with the illness? What do we owe people who struggle, work hard and are less lucky than we are?
Xo'sh, ular o'zi loyiq bo'lgan narsaga erishishadimi? Jamiyat adolatlimi? Albatta, yo'q. Qattiq mehnat qilish va qoidalarga muvofiq ish tutish hech narsani kafolatlamaydi. Agar biz bunday adolatsizlikning muqarrarligi va omadning markaziyligini tushinib yetsak, o'zimizga bunday savol berishimiz mumkin: biz qahramon sifatida hurmat qilayotgan insonlarimizning oilasi hozirgi pandemiya sharoitida o'gir kasallikka duchor bo'lsa, ularning sog'lig'ini saqlab qolish va ularning hayoti kasallik bilan kurashish evaziga barbod bo'lmasligi uchun biz qanday choralar ko'ra olamiz? Kurashuvchan, qattiq mehnat qiladigan va bizdan omadsizroq insonlardan qanday qarzimiz bor?
About a half century ago, the philosopher John Rawls wrote a book called "A Theory of Justice," and in that book, he introduced a concept that he called "the veil of ignorance." The question he posed was: If you didn't know what your position in society was going to be, what kind of a society would you want to create? And what he suggested is that when we don't know whether we're going to enter society at the top or at the bottom, what we want is a society that is pretty damn equal, so that even the unlucky will be able to live decent, meaningful and satisfying lives.
Taxminan yarim asr ilgari faylasuf Jon Rols "Adolat nazariyasi" deb nomlangan kitob yozib, unda "jaholat pardasi" degan tushunchani taqdim etadi. U bir savolni o'rtaga tashlaydi: Agar siz jamiyatdagi mavqeyingiz qanday bo'lishini bilmasangiz, o'zingiz qanday jamiyat yaratishni istardingiz? Va u shunday taklif bildiradi: biz jamiyatda yuqori yoki quyi o'rinni egallashimizni bilmay turgan paytimizda, jamiyatning shu qadar teng huquqli, adolatli bo'lishini istaymizki, natijada hattoki, omadsiz insonlar ham tartibli, mazmunli va shod hayot kechira olsinlar.
So bring this back, all of you lucky, successful people, to your communities, and do what you can to make sure that we honor and take care of people who are just as deserving of success as we are, but just not as lucky.
Bu narsani jamiyatingizga qaytaring, siz barchangiz omadli,muvaffaqiyatli insonsiz, va biz kabi muvaffaqiyatga loyiq, ammo omadli bo'lmagan insonlarni hurmat qilishimiz va ularga g'amxo'rlik qilishimiz uchun barcha imkoniyatlarni ishga soling.
Thank you.
Rahmat.