Hello, everybody. I'm honored to be here to talk to you, and what I'm going to talk about today is luck and justice and the relation between them.
Halo semuanya, Sebuah kehormatan bagi saya untuk bicara di depan anda. Hari ini saya akan membicarakan tentang keberuntungan dan keadilan dan hubungan antara keduanya.
Some years ago, a former student of mine called me to talk about his daughter. It turns out his daughter was a high school senior, was seriously interested in applying to Swarthmore, where I taught, and he wanted to get my sense of whether she would get in. Swarthmore is an extremely hard school to get into. So I said, "Well, tell me about her." And he told me about her, what her grades were like, her board scores, her extracurricular activities. And she just sounded like a superstar, wonderful, wonderful kid. So I said, "She sounds fabulous. She sounds like just the kind of student that Swarthmore would love to have." And so he said, "Well, does that mean that she'll get in?" And I said, "No. There just aren't enough spots in the Swarthmore class for everybody who's good. There aren't enough spots at Harvard or Yale or Princeton or Stanford. There aren't enough spots at Google or Amazon or Apple. There aren't enough spots at the TED Conference. There are an awful lot of good people, and some of them are not going to make it." So he said, "Well, what are we supposed to do?" And I said, "That's a very good question."
Beberapa tahun lalu, mantan murid saya menghubungi saya untuk membicarakan putrinya. Ternyata, putrinya sudah SMA, dan ingin mendaftar di Swarthmore, tempat saya mengajar, dan dia ingin pendapat saya apakah anaknya akan diterima. Swarthmore adalah sekolah yang sangat sulit dimasuki. Jadi, saya berkata, "Ceritakan tentang anakmu." Lalu dia menceritakannya, bagaimana nilai-nilainya, aktivitas ekstrakurikulernya. Dan dia kedengarannya seperti seorang superstar, anak hebat Jadi saya bilang, "Dia terdengar hebat, dia seperti anak yang diinginkan Swarthmore." Dan dia berkata, "Jadi, apa ini berarti dia akan diterima?" Dan saya jawab, "Tidak. Tidak ada cukup tempat di Swarthmore untuk semua orang pintar. Tidak ada cukup tempat di Harvard, Yale, Princeton, Stanford. Tidak ada cukup tempat di Google, Amazon, Apple. Tidak ada cukup tempat di Konferensi TED. Ada banyak sekali orang pintar, dan tidak semuanya akan berhasil." Lalu, dia berkata, "Jadi, apa yang harus kami lakukan?" Dan saya jawab, "Itu pertanyaan yang bagus."
What are we supposed to do? And I know what colleges and universities have done. In the interest of fairness, what they've done is they've kept ratcheting up the standards because it doesn't seem fair to admit less qualified people and reject better qualified people, so you just keep raising the standards higher and higher until they're high enough that you can admit only the number of students that you can fit.
Apa yang harus kita lakukan? Saya tahu apa yang telah dilakukan perguruan tinggi dan universitas. Agar adil, mereka terus meningkatkan standarnya karena tidak adil untuk menerima orang yang kurang berkualifikasi, dan menolak orang yang lebih berkualifikasi. Jadi, mereka makin meningkatkan standarnya semakin tinggi sampai cukup tinggi hingga hanya sedikit siswa yang masuk.
And this violates a lot of people's sense of what justice and fairness is. People in American society have different opinions about what it means to say that some sort of process is just, but I think there's one thing that pretty much everyone agrees on, that in a just system, a fair system, people get what they deserve.
Ini melanggar pandangan banyak orang tentang arti keadilan yang sesungguhnya. Orang-orang di Amerika punya pemahaman berbeda tentang pengertian proses yang adil tapi saya kira ada satu hal yang semua orang setuju, bahwa di sistem yang adil, orang menerima apa yang pantas diterima.
And what I was telling my former student is that when it comes to college admissions, it just isn't true that people get what they deserve. Some people get what they deserve, and some people don't, and that's just the way it is.
Dan saya bilang pada mantan murid saya, dalam hal penerimaan perguruan tinggi tidak benar bahwa tiap orang mendapatkan apa yang pantas diterima. Sebagian orang mendapatkan apa yang pantas dan sebagian tidak. Dan memang begitulah adanya.
When you ratchet up requirements as colleges have done, what you do is you create a crazy competition among high school kids, because it's not adequate to be good, it's not adequate to be good enough, you have to be better than everybody else who is also applying. And what this has done, or what this has contributed to, is a kind of epidemic of anxiety and depression that is just crushing our teenagers. We are wrecking a generation with this kind of competition.
Ketika syarat dinaikkan oleh perguruan tinggi, ini membuat kompetisi besar di antara anak-anak SMA, karena menjadi pintar saja tidak cukup, menjadi cukup pintar saja tidak cukup, Anda harus menjadi lebih baik dari semua yang juga mendaftar. Dan ini mengakibatkan, atau berkontribusi kepada epidemi kegelisahan dan depresi yang meremukkan para remaja kita. Kita merusak sebuah generasi dengan kompetisi seperti ini.
As I was thinking about this, it occurred to me there's a way to fix this problem. And here's what we could do: when people apply to college, we distinguish between the applicants who are good enough to be successful and the ones who aren't, and we reject the ones who aren't good enough to be successful, and then we take all of the others, and we put their names in a hat, and we just pick them out at random and admit them. In other words, we do college admissions by lottery, and maybe we do job offers at tech companies by lottery, and -- perish the thought -- maybe we even make decisions about who gets invited to talk at TED by lottery.
Seraya saya berpikir, saya punya cara untuk mengatasi masalah ini, dan inilah yang bisa kita lakukan: ketika orang-orang daftar ke perguruan tinggi, kita pisahkan antara mereka yang cukup pintar untuk berhasil dan mereka yang tidak, dan kita menolak mereka yang tidak cukup pintar, dan lalu kita ambil sisanya, menaruh nama mereka di dalam topi, dan mengambilnya secara acak dan menerima mereka. Dalam kata lain, kita menerima mahasiswa dengan bertaruh, dan mungkin juga memberi pekerjaan di perusahaan teknologi dengan bertaruh. Dan amit-amit, mungkin kita juga memilih siapa yang berceramah di TED dengan bertaruh.
Now, don't misunderstand me, a lottery like this is not going to eliminate the injustice. There will still be plenty of people who don't get what they deserve. But at least it's honest. It reveals the injustice for what it is instead of pretending otherwise, and it punctures the incredible pressure balloon that our high school kids are now living under.
Jangan keliru memahami saya, Bertaruh seperti ini tidak akan menghapus ketidakadilan. Akan masih ada banyak orang yang tak mendapatkan apa yang pantas. Tapi, setidaknya, ini jujur. Ini menunjukkan ketidakadilannya, daripada berpura-pura, dan ini melepaskan tekanan besar dari anak-anak SMA kita saat ini.
So why is it that this perfectly reasonable proposal, if I do say so myself, doesn't get any serious discussion? I think I know why. I think it's that we hate the idea that really important things in life might happen by luck or by chance, that really important things in our lives are not under our control. I hate that idea. It's not surprising that people hate that idea, but it simply is the way things are.
Lalu mengapa proposal yang menurut saya masuk akal ini, tidak serius dibahas? Saya tahu mengapa. Saya kira karena kita benci akan ide bahwa hal penting dalam hidup bisa terjadi karena keberuntungan, bahwa hal tersebut tidak di bawah kendali kita. Saya benci ide itu. Tidak mengagetkan bahwa orang-orang juga membencinya, tapi itulah kenyataannya.
First of all, college admissions already is a lottery. It's just that the admissions officers pretend that it isn't. So let's be honest about it.
Pertama, penerimaan perguruan tinggi itu saja sudah sebuah taruhan. Hanya saja, kantor penerimaan berpura-pura sebaliknya. Jadi, marilah jujur akan hal ini.
And second, I think if we appreciated that it was a lottery, it would also get us to acknowledge the importance of good fortune in almost every one of our lives.
Dan kedua, saya kira jika kita menerima bahwa ini adalah taruhan, kita juga akan mengakui pentingnya keberuntungan dalam hidup.
Take me. Almost all the most significant events in my life have occurred, to a large degree, as a result of good luck. When I was in seventh grade, my family left New York and went to Westchester County. Right at the beginning of school, I met a lovely young girl who became my friend, then she became my best friend, then she became my girlfriend and then she became my wife. Happily, she's been my wife now for 52 years. I had very little to do with this. This was a lucky accident.
Contohnya saya. Hampir semua kejadian signifikan yang terjadi dalam hidup saya, adalah hasil dari keberuntungan. Saat saya kelas 7, keluarga saya pindah dari New York ke Westchester County. Tepat saat sekolah mulai, saya bertemu gadis cantik yang menjadi teman saya, lalu menjadi teman baik saya, lalu menjadi pacar saya, dan lalu menjadi istri saya. Bahagianya, kami sudah bersama selama 52 tahun. Saya tidak berperan besar di sini. Ini kebetulan yang menguntungkan.
I went off to college, and in my first semester, I signed up for a class in introduction to psychology. I didn't even know what psychology was, but it fit into my schedule and it met requirements, so I took it. And by luck, the class was taught by a superstar introductory psychology teacher, a legend. Because of that, I became a psychology major.
Saat saya kuliah, dan di semester pertama, saya mendaftar di kelas "Pengantar Psikologi." Saya tidak tahu apa itu psikologi, tapi jadwalnya cocok dan memenuhi syarat, maka saya ambil. Beruntungnya, kelasnya diajarkan oleh guru psikologi yang legendaris. Karena itu, saya masuk ke jurusan psikologi.
Went off to graduate school. I was finishing up. A friend of mine who taught at Swarthmore decided he didn't want to be a professor anymore, and so he quit to go to medical school. The job that he occupied opened up, I applied for it, I got it, the only job I've ever applied for. I spent 45 years teaching at Swarthmore, an institution that had an enormous impact on the shape that my career took.
Lanjut ke pascasarjana. Saya mulai menyelesaikannya. Teman saya yang mengajar di Swarthmore tidak ingin menjadi profesor lagi, jadi dia berhenti untuk kuliah kedokteran. Posisi dia yang dulu menjadi lowong, saya melamar pekerjaan itu dan diterima, satu-satunya pekerjaan yang saya lamar. Saya mengajar di Swarthmore selama 45 tahun, sebuah institusi yang berdampak besar dalam membentuk karier saya.
And to just give one last example, I was giving a talk about some of my work in New York, and there was somebody in the audience who came up to me after my talk. He introduced himself. He said, "My name is Chris. Would you like to give a talk at TED?" And my response was, "What's TED?" Well, I mean, he told me, and TED then wasn't what it is now. But in the intervening years, the talks I've given at TED have been watched by more than 20 million people.
Dan satu contoh terakhir, saya sedang memberi ceramah tentang karya saya di New York, dan ada seorang hadirin yang mendatangi saya setelah ceramah. Dia memperkenalkan dirinya. "Nama saya Chris. Apa Anda ingin memberi ceramah di TED?" Dan respon saya saat itu, "Apa itu TED?" Lalu dia memberi tahu saya, dan TED dulunya berbeda dari sekarang. Beberapa tahun kemudian, Ceramah yang saya berikan di TED sudah ditonton lebih dari 20 juta orang.
So the conclusion is, I'm a lucky man. I'm lucky about my marriage. I'm lucky about my education. I'm lucky about my career. And I'm lucky to have had a platform and a voice at something like TED.
Jadi, kesimpulannya, saya orang beruntung. Saya beruntung di pernikahan. Saya beruntung di pendidikan. Saya beruntung di karier. Dan saya beruntung untuk bisa memiliki suara di TED.
Did I deserve the success I've had? Sure I deserve that success, just as you probably deserve your success. But lots of people also deserve successes like ours who haven't had it.
Apa saya pantas mendapat kesuksesan ini? Tentu, saya pantas, seperti Anda juga pantas menerima kesuksesan Anda. Tapi banyak orang juga pantas mendapat kesuksesan seperti kita, tapi belum mendapatkannya.
So do people get what they deserve? Is society just? Of course not. Working hard and playing by the rules is just no guarantee of anything. If we appreciate the inevitability of this kind of injustice and the centrality of good fortune, we might ask ourselves what responsibilities do we have to the people we are now celebrating as heroes in this time of the pandemic when a serious illness befalls their family to make sure that they remain whole and their lives aren't ruined by the cost of dealing with the illness? What do we owe people who struggle, work hard and are less lucky than we are?
Jadi apakah orang-orang menerima apa yang pantas diterima? Apakah masyarakat adil? Tentu tidak. Bekerja keras dan menaati peraturan tidak menjamin apa pun. Jika kita menerima keniscayaan akan ketidakadilan ini dan pentingnya keberuntungan, kita harus bertanya, apa kewajiban kita pada mereka yang kita anggap pahlawan saat pandemi ini yang keluarganya sakit parah untuk memastikan bahwa hidup mereka tidak hancur akibat penyakitnya? Apa utang kita kepada mereka yang berjuang, bekerja keras, dan kurang beruntung dari kita?
About a half century ago, the philosopher John Rawls wrote a book called "A Theory of Justice," and in that book, he introduced a concept that he called "the veil of ignorance." The question he posed was: If you didn't know what your position in society was going to be, what kind of a society would you want to create? And what he suggested is that when we don't know whether we're going to enter society at the top or at the bottom, what we want is a society that is pretty damn equal, so that even the unlucky will be able to live decent, meaningful and satisfying lives.
Sekitar setengah abad lalu, filsuf John Rawls menulis buku berjudul "Teori Keadilan," dan dalam buku itu, dia memperkenalkan konsep bernama "kabut ketidaktahuan." Ia mengatakan: jika Anda tidak tahu posisi Anda nantinya dalam masyarakat, masyarakat seperti apa yang ingin Anda ciptakan? Dan dia menyatakan, kalau kita tidak tahu apakah kita akan memasuki masyarakat dari atas atau bawah, yang kita inginkan adalah masyarakat yang seimbang, agar orang yang tidak beruntung pun bisa punya kehidupan yang layak, berarti, dan memuaskan.
So bring this back, all of you lucky, successful people, to your communities, and do what you can to make sure that we honor and take care of people who are just as deserving of success as we are, but just not as lucky.
Jadi Anda yang beruntung dan sukses, sampaikan ini pada komunitas Anda, dan lakukan yang Anda bisa untuk menghargai dan merawat mereka yang juga pantas mendapatkan kesuksesan seperti kita, hanya saja tidak beruntung.
Thank you.
Terima kasih.