Hello, everybody. I'm honored to be here to talk to you, and what I'm going to talk about today is luck and justice and the relation between them.
Ola a todo o mundo. Hónrame estar aquí falando con vós, hoxe falarei de sorte e xustiza e da relación entre ambas.
Some years ago, a former student of mine called me to talk about his daughter. It turns out his daughter was a high school senior, was seriously interested in applying to Swarthmore, where I taught, and he wanted to get my sense of whether she would get in. Swarthmore is an extremely hard school to get into. So I said, "Well, tell me about her." And he told me about her, what her grades were like, her board scores, her extracurricular activities. And she just sounded like a superstar, wonderful, wonderful kid. So I said, "She sounds fabulous. She sounds like just the kind of student that Swarthmore would love to have." And so he said, "Well, does that mean that she'll get in?" And I said, "No. There just aren't enough spots in the Swarthmore class for everybody who's good. There aren't enough spots at Harvard or Yale or Princeton or Stanford. There aren't enough spots at Google or Amazon or Apple. There aren't enough spots at the TED Conference. There are an awful lot of good people, and some of them are not going to make it." So he said, "Well, what are we supposed to do?" And I said, "That's a very good question."
Hai uns anos, un antigo estudante meu chamoume para falar da súa filla. Ela era estudante do último ano de bacharelato e estaba moi interesada en ingresar en Swarthmore onde eu era profesor, e el quería saber se ela podería entrar. Swarthmore é unha univerisdade na que é difícil entrar. Polo que dixen, "Cóntame algo sobre ela". E fíxoo, sobre as súas notas e as súas actividades extracurriculares. E parecía unha súper estrela, unha nena marabillosa,. Polo que l ledixen, "Parece perfecta. Xusto o tipo de estudante que querería ter Swarthmore." El dixo, "Entón, entrará?" E dixen, "Non. Non hai suficientes prazas en Swarthmore para todos os que son bos. Non hai suficientes en Harvard, nin Yale, nin Princeton ou Stanford. Non hai suficientes en Google, nin Amazon, nin Apple Non hai suficientes nas conferencias TED. Hai moitísima xente boa, e algúns simplemente non o conseguen." El dixo, "Que podemos facer agora?" E dixen, "Boa pregunta."
What are we supposed to do? And I know what colleges and universities have done. In the interest of fairness, what they've done is they've kept ratcheting up the standards because it doesn't seem fair to admit less qualified people and reject better qualified people, so you just keep raising the standards higher and higher until they're high enough that you can admit only the number of students that you can fit.
Que podemos facer agora? Sei o que as universidades teñen feito. Para intentar ser xustos, seguiron subindo os estándares porque non parece xusto admitir a xente menos cualificada e rexeitar aos máis cualificados, polo que seguen aumentando os estándares máis e máis ata que son o suficientemente altos como para admitir ao número de alumnos aos que poden ensinar.
And this violates a lot of people's sense of what justice and fairness is. People in American society have different opinions about what it means to say that some sort of process is just, but I think there's one thing that pretty much everyone agrees on, that in a just system, a fair system, people get what they deserve.
E isto viola o que moita xente considera xusto. A sociedade americana ten diferentes opinións sobre o qué siginifica que un proceso sea xusto, pero creo que hai algo no que case todos estamos de acordo, que nun sistema xusto, a xente recibe o que merece.
And what I was telling my former student is that when it comes to college admissions, it just isn't true that people get what they deserve. Some people get what they deserve, and some people don't, and that's just the way it is.
E o que eu lle dicía ao meu antigo estudante é que en canto as admisións universitarias, non é certo que a xente reciba o que merece- Algúns recíbeno e outros non, simplemente é así.
When you ratchet up requirements as colleges have done, what you do is you create a crazy competition among high school kids, because it's not adequate to be good, it's not adequate to be good enough, you have to be better than everybody else who is also applying. And what this has done, or what this has contributed to, is a kind of epidemic of anxiety and depression that is just crushing our teenagers. We are wrecking a generation with this kind of competition.
Cando sobes os requisitos como fixeron as universidades o que creas é unha competitivadade de tocos entre os nenos de instituto, porque non vale con ser bo, non vale con ser suficientemente bo, tes que ser mellor que calquera outro que se inscriba. O que isto conseguíu, ou ao que contribuíu, é a unha epidemia de ansiedade e depresión que está acabando cos nosos adolescentes. Estamos mazando unha xeración con este tipo de competitvidade.
As I was thinking about this, it occurred to me there's a way to fix this problem. And here's what we could do: when people apply to college, we distinguish between the applicants who are good enough to be successful and the ones who aren't, and we reject the ones who aren't good enough to be successful, and then we take all of the others, and we put their names in a hat, and we just pick them out at random and admit them. In other words, we do college admissions by lottery, and maybe we do job offers at tech companies by lottery, and -- perish the thought -- maybe we even make decisions about who gets invited to talk at TED by lottery.
Mentres cismaba nisto, ocurréuseme unha forma de arranxar este problema. Isto é o que poderíamos facer: cando a xente solicita unha universidade, distinguimos entre solicitantes que son suficientemente bos para ser exitosos e os que non o son, e rexeitamos aos que no son suficientemente bos e logo collemos os outros e poñemos os seus nomes nun sombreiro, e collémolos de forma aleatoria e admitímolos. Noutras verbas, escollemos os admitidos por unha lotaría, e quizáis tamén as ofertas de emprego en compañías de tecnoloxía, e -- pensade nisto-- tamén quen é invitado as charlas TED por lotaría.
Now, don't misunderstand me, a lottery like this is not going to eliminate the injustice. There will still be plenty of people who don't get what they deserve. But at least it's honest. It reveals the injustice for what it is instead of pretending otherwise, and it punctures the incredible pressure balloon that our high school kids are now living under.
Non me malinterpretedes, unha lotaría así non eliminaría a inxustiza. Moita xente que o merece non saería escollida. Pero ao menos é honesto. Revela a inxustiza do que é en vez de ocultalo, e punza a incrible burbulla de presión na que viven os rapaces de insituto.
So why is it that this perfectly reasonable proposal, if I do say so myself, doesn't get any serious discussion? I think I know why. I think it's that we hate the idea that really important things in life might happen by luck or by chance, that really important things in our lives are not under our control. I hate that idea. It's not surprising that people hate that idea, but it simply is the way things are.
Entón, por qué esta proposta razonable, aínda que o diga eu, non se toma en serio? Creo que sei o por qué. Creo que é porque odiamos a idea de que as cousas máis importantes na vida podan pasar por sorte, que as cousas importantes da nosa vida non estean baixo o noso control. Odio esa idea. Non é sorprendente que a xeite a odie, pero así con as cousas.
First of all, college admissions already is a lottery. It's just that the admissions officers pretend that it isn't. So let's be honest about it.
As admisións á universidade xa son unha lotaría. Pero fínxese que non o son. Debemos ser honestos sobre isto.
And second, I think if we appreciated that it was a lottery, it would also get us to acknowledge the importance of good fortune in almost every one of our lives.
E segundo, Se apreciamos que é unha lotaría, tamén apreciariamos a importancia da boa sorte en cada momento da nosa vida.
Take me. Almost all the most significant events in my life have occurred, to a large degree, as a result of good luck. When I was in seventh grade, my family left New York and went to Westchester County. Right at the beginning of school, I met a lovely young girl who became my friend, then she became my best friend, then she became my girlfriend and then she became my wife. Happily, she's been my wife now for 52 years. I had very little to do with this. This was a lucky accident.
Por exemplo: eu Todos os momentos importantes da miña vida ocurriron, en gran medida, grazas a boa sorte. Cando estaba en séptimo, a miña familia mudouse de Nova York ao condado de Westchester. Ao comezo das clases, coñecín aunha rapariga fermosa que foi a miña amiga, logo a miña mellor amiga, e logo a miña moza, e logo a miña muller. Felizmente, xa é a miña muller dende hai 52 anos. Non foi cousa miña. Foi unha sorte.
I went off to college, and in my first semester, I signed up for a class in introduction to psychology. I didn't even know what psychology was, but it fit into my schedule and it met requirements, so I took it. And by luck, the class was taught by a superstar introductory psychology teacher, a legend. Because of that, I became a psychology major.
Marchei á universidade, e no primeiro semestre, apunteime a unha clase de introdución á psicoloxía. Non sabía nin o que era a psicoloxía, pero o horario íame ben e cumpría os requisitos así que collina. E por sorte, o profesor desa clase era un profesor de psicoloxía marabilloso, unha lenda. Por iso, especialiceime en psicoloxía.
Went off to graduate school. I was finishing up. A friend of mine who taught at Swarthmore decided he didn't want to be a professor anymore, and so he quit to go to medical school. The job that he occupied opened up, I applied for it, I got it, the only job I've ever applied for. I spent 45 years teaching at Swarthmore, an institution that had an enormous impact on the shape that my career took.
Gradueime. Estaba a acabar. Un amigo que ensinaba en Swarthmore deicidiu que non quería seguir sendo profesor, marchou e comezou medicina. O seu posto quedou libre, soliciteino e obtíveno, o único traballo que solicitei. Pasei 45 anos ensinando en Swarthmore, unha institución que deu forma á miña carreira.
And to just give one last example, I was giving a talk about some of my work in New York, and there was somebody in the audience who came up to me after my talk. He introduced himself. He said, "My name is Chris. Would you like to give a talk at TED?" And my response was, "What's TED?" Well, I mean, he told me, and TED then wasn't what it is now. But in the intervening years, the talks I've given at TED have been watched by more than 20 million people.
E para darvos un último exemplo, estaba dando unha charla sobre o meu traballo en Nova York é unha persoa do público veu falar comigo tras a charla. Presentouse. Dixo "Chámome Chris. Gustaríache dar unha charla TED?" E dixen, qué é TED?" E díxome o que era, daquela non era o que é hoxe. Non anos vindeiros, as charlas que dei para TED víronas máis de 20 millóns de persoas.
So the conclusion is, I'm a lucky man. I'm lucky about my marriage. I'm lucky about my education. I'm lucky about my career. And I'm lucky to have had a platform and a voice at something like TED.
A conclusión é que son un home con sorte. Sorte co matrimonio. Sorte coa educación. Sorte co meu traballo. Sorte de ter voz nunha plataforma coma TED.
Did I deserve the success I've had? Sure I deserve that success, just as you probably deserve your success. But lots of people also deserve successes like ours who haven't had it.
Merezo todo este éxito? Merezo éxito, claro coma seguramente o merecedes vós. Pero moita outra xente tamén merece éxito e non o tiveron.
So do people get what they deserve? Is society just? Of course not. Working hard and playing by the rules is just no guarantee of anything. If we appreciate the inevitability of this kind of injustice and the centrality of good fortune, we might ask ourselves what responsibilities do we have to the people we are now celebrating as heroes in this time of the pandemic when a serious illness befalls their family to make sure that they remain whole and their lives aren't ruined by the cost of dealing with the illness? What do we owe people who struggle, work hard and are less lucky than we are?
A xente recibe o que merece? A sociedade é xusta? Claro que non. Traballar duro e seguir as normas non garante nada. Se apreciamos a inestabilidade deste tipo de inxustiza e a centralidade da boa sorte, quizáis nos preguntemos que responsabilidades temos coa xente que agora vemos coma heroes nesta época de pandemia cando unha enfermidade seria cae na súa familia para asegurarse de que se manteñen e que as súas vidas non se arruínan co costo de tratar coa enfermidade? Que debemos á xente que lle custa, traballa duro e ten menos sorte ca nós?
About a half century ago, the philosopher John Rawls wrote a book called "A Theory of Justice," and in that book, he introduced a concept that he called "the veil of ignorance." The question he posed was: If you didn't know what your position in society was going to be, what kind of a society would you want to create? And what he suggested is that when we don't know whether we're going to enter society at the top or at the bottom, what we want is a society that is pretty damn equal, so that even the unlucky will be able to live decent, meaningful and satisfying lives.
Hai medio século. o filósofo John Rawls escribiu un libro chamado "A teoría da xustiza," nese libro, introduciu o concepto do "veo da ignorancia." A pregunta era: Se non soubeses cal ía ser a túa posición na sociedade, que tipo de sociedade che gustaría ter? E suxeriu que cando non sabemos onde imos caer socialmente ao comezo ou ao final, desexamos unha sociedade igualitaria, para que incluso os non afortunados poidan vivir unha vida decente, con sentido e satisfactoria.
So bring this back, all of you lucky, successful people, to your communities, and do what you can to make sure that we honor and take care of people who are just as deserving of success as we are, but just not as lucky.
Devolvede todo ás vosas comunidades, vós a xente con sorte e exitosa, e facede todo o que poidades para honrar e coidar a xente que merece o éxito tanto coma nós pero non teñen tanta sorte.
Thank you.
Grazas.