When someone mentions Cuba, what do you think about? Classic, classic cars? Perhaps good cigars? Maybe you think of a famous baseball player. What about when somebody mentions North Korea? You think about those missile tests, maybe their notorious leader or his good friend, Dennis Rodman.
當有人提到古巴, 你會想到什麼? 經典,經典的車子? 或是高檔雪茄? 也許你想到的是知名的棒球員。 那如果有人提到北韓呢? 你會想到的是那些飛彈測試, 也許是那位惡名昭彰的領導者, 或是他的好朋友,丹尼斯羅德曼。
(Laughter)
(笑聲)
One thing that likely doesn't come to mind is a vision of a country, an open economy, whose citizens have access to a wide range of affordable consumer products.
有一樣東西通常不會被想到, 就是一個國家的遠景, 一個開放的經濟體, 如何讓他的人民取得各種 他們可付擔得起的消費產品。
I'm not here to argue how these countries got to where they are today. I simply want to use them as an example of countries and citizens who have been affected, negatively affected, by a trade policy that restricts imports and protects local industries. Recently we've heard a number of countries talk about restricting imports and protecting their local, domestic industries. Now, this may sound fine in a sound bite, but what it really is is protectionism. We heard a lot about this during the 2016 presidential election. We heard about it during the Brexit debates and most recently during the French elections. In fact, it's been a really important topic being talked about around the world, and many aspiring political leaders are running on platforms positioning protectionism as a good thing.
我並不是來這裡爭論這些國家 是如何走到今天這一步的。 我只是想要用它們當作例子, 來說明國家及人民 會因為限制進口政策 以及保護本土產業主義 而造成負面影響。 最近,我們聽到有不少國家 在談論要限制進口, 藉以保護它們的本土產業。 乍聽之下,這想法聽起來沒問題, 但它其實只是一種保護主義。 在 2016 年的總統大選時, 我們常聽到這個議題。 在英國脫歐的辯論中 我們也常聽到它, 最近,在法國選舉中也會聽到。 事實上,它一直是個全世界 都在談論的重要主題, 且許多有抱負的政治領袖 不斷地在演說中說明 保護主義是件好事。
Now, I could see why they think protectionism is good, because sometimes it seems like trade is unfair. Some have blamed trade for some of the problems we've been having here at home in the US. For years we've been hearing about the loss of high-paying US manufacturing jobs. Many think that manufacturing is declining in the US because companies are moving their operations offshore to markets with lower-cost labor like China, Mexico and Vietnam. They also think trade agreements sometimes are unfair, like NAFTA and the Trans-Pacific Partnership, because these trade agreements allow companies to reimport those cheaply produced goods back into the US and other countries from where the jobs were taken. So it kind of feels like the exporters win and the importers lose.
我可以了解為何他們認為 保護主義是好的, 因為,有時候,貿易看起來 似乎是不公平的。 有些人會怪罪貿易, 我們在自家美國所發生的 一些問題都是貿易的錯。 多年來,我們都不斷聽到 高薪的美國製造業工作在減少。 許多人認為,在美國, 製造業在走下坡, 是因為公司把它們的 營運移到海外去, 移到低成本勞工的市場, 比如中國、墨西哥、越南。 他們也認為,貿易協定 有時候是不公平的, 如北美自由貿易協定、 以及跨太平洋夥伴關係, 因為這些貿易協定讓公司 可以將那些便宜製造的商品 重新進口回來美國, 以及其它工作機會被搶走的國家。 所以這種感覺有點像是,出口者贏, 進口者輸。
Now, the reality is output in the manufacturing sector in the US is actually growing, but we are losing jobs. We're losing lots of them. In fact, from 2000 to 2010, 5.7 million manufacturing jobs were lost. But they're not being lost for the reasons you might think. Mike Johnson in Toledo, Ohio didn't lose his jobs at the factory to Miguel Sanchez in Monterrey, Mexico. No. Mike lost his job to a machine. 87 percent of lost manufacturing jobs have been eliminated because we've made improvements in our own productivity through automation. So that means that one out of 10 lost manufacturing jobs was due to offshoring. Now, this is not just a US phenomenon. No. In fact, automation is spreading to every production line in every country around the world.
現實則是, 在美國,製造業的出口 其實在成長, 但我們的工作在減少。 我們的工作減少很多。 事實上,從 2000 年到 2010 年, 就減少了 570 萬個製造業工作。 但這些工作之所以減少的原因 和你想的不同。 俄亥俄州托利多市的麥克強生, 他丟掉工作的原因並不是輸給 墨西哥蒙特雷市的米戈山切斯。 不是。 麥克丟掉工作的原因, 是因為一台機器。 87% 的製造業工作機會消失, 是因為我們用自動化 改善了我們自己的生產力而造成的。 那意味著,每十個 被縮減掉的製造業工作中, 只有一個是因為外移造成的。 這不只是在美國才有的現象。 不是。 事實上,自動化遍及了 全世界每一個國家的每一條生產線。
But look, I get it: if you just lost your job and then you read in the newspaper that your old company just struck up a deal with China, it's easy to think you were just replaced in a one-for-one deal.
但,我懂: 如果你剛丟了你的工作, 接著你在報紙上讀到 你原本的公司剛剛和中國簽了協議, 很容易就會聯想到, 你是被一個換一個的 協議所取代掉的。
When I hear stories like this, I think that what people picture is that trade happens between only two countries. Manufacturers in one country produce products and they export them to consumers in other countries, and it feels like the manufacturing countries win and the importing countries lose.
當我聽到像這樣的故事, 我認為人們所想像的是, 貿易只發生在兩個國家之間。 製造商在一個國家 生產產品然後出口銷售給 另一個國家的消費者, 感覺就像是製造國贏, 而進口國輸。
Well, reality's a little bit different. I'm a supply chain professional, and I live and work in Mexico. And I work in the middle of a highly connected network of manufacturers all collaborating from around the world to produce many of the products we use today. What I see from my front-row seat in Mexico City actually looks more like this. And this is a more accurate depiction of what trade really looks like. I've had the pleasure of being able to see how many different products are manufactured, from golf clubs to laptop computers to internet servers, automobiles and even airplanes. And believe me, none of it happens in a straight line.
嗯,現實有點不同。 我是供應鏈專家, 我住在墨西哥,也在那裡工作。 而我在一個 高度連結的製造商網路中工作, 這些世界各地的製造商彼此合作, 來生產出許多現今我們使用的產品。 我在墨西哥市 最接近最清楚的位置所看到的, 其實比較像是這樣。 這個對貿易的描繪,算是 較精確也較接近真實情況。 我有榮幸能夠看到 許多不同的產品是如何製造出來的, 從高爾夫球桿到筆記型電腦, 到網際網路服務、汽車、 甚至飛機。 相信我,這些發生過程 都不是直線的。
Let me give you an example. A few months ago, I was touring the manufacturing plant of a multinational aerospace company in Querétaro, Mexico, and the VP of logistics points out a completed tail assembly. It turns out the tail assemblies are assembled from panels that are manufactured in France, and they're assembled in Mexico using components imported from the US. When those tail assemblies are done, they're exported via truck to Canada to their primary assembly plant where they come together with thousands of other parts, like the wings and the seats and the little shades over the little windows, all coming in to become a part of a new airplane. Think about it. These new airplanes, before they even take their first flight, they have more stamps in their passports than Angelina Jolie.
讓我舉個例子。 幾個月前,我去墨西哥 巡視一間跨國航太公司 位在克雷塔羅的製造工廠, 物流管理副總比了一個 組裝完成的尾翼。 結果,那尾翼是用 法國製造的鑲板來組裝的, 而組裝是在墨西哥進行, 使用的元件從美國進口。 尾翼的組裝完成後, 會被卡車載到加拿大, 到它們的主要組裝工廠, 在那間工廠裡, 它們和其它數千個零件 會被組裝起來, 比如機翼和座椅, 和小窗戶上面的小遮光板, 全都組合起來, 成為新飛機的一部份。 想想看。 這些新飛機, 在第一次飛行之前, 它們護照上的戳章數目就已經勝過 安潔莉娜裘莉了。
Now, this approach to processing goes on all around the world to manufacture many of the products we use every day, from skin cream to airplanes. When you go home tonight, take a look in your house. You might be surprised to find a label that looks like this one: "Manufactured in the USA from US and foreign parts."
全世界都在用這個方式運轉, 來製造出我們每天 使用的日常用品, 從護膚乳液到飛機。 你晚上回家時,看看你的房子, 你可能會很驚訝地發現 像這樣子的標籤: 「美國製造;零件:美國及外國。」
Economist Michael Porter described what's going on here best. Many decades ago, he said that it's most beneficial for a country to focus on producing the products it can produce most efficiently and trading for the rest. So what he's talking about here is shared production, and efficiency is the name of the game. You've probably seen an example of this at home or at work.
經濟學家麥可波特 對這個情況的描述是最貼切的。 數十年前,他說, 對一個國家來說,最有益的做法是 著重生產該國最有生產效能的產品, 其餘的則用貿易取得。 所以,他在談的就是共享生產, 而這個遊戲的名字就叫做效率。 你可能在家或在工作時有看過 相關的例子。
Let's take a look at an example. Think about how your house was built or your kitchen renovated. Typically, there's a general contractor who is responsible for coordinating the efforts of all the different contractors: an architect to draw the plans, an earth-moving company to dig the foundation, a plumber, a carpenter and so on. So why doesn't the general contractor pick just one company to do all the work, like, say, the architect? Because this is silly. The general contractor selects experts because it takes years to learn and master how to do each of the tasks it takes to build a house or renovate a kitchen, some of them requiring special training. Think about it: Would you want your architect to install your toilet? Of course not.
我們先來看個例子。 想想看你的房子是怎麼建造的、 或廚房是怎麼翻修的。 通常,會有一個總包商, 它的責任是協調所有各個 包商之間的工作: 一名建築師來畫設計圖、 一家運土公司來挖地基、 一個水電工、一個木匠,等等。 為什麼總包商不要 只選一家公司, 比如選建築師, 來做所有工作? 因為這樣很蠢。 總包商會選專家, 因為需要花上數年時間, 才能學會和精通 建造一間房子或翻修一間廚房 所需要的工作任務, 有些工作任務還需要特別訓練。 想想看: 你會想要你的建築師 來安裝你的馬桶嗎? 當然不想。
So let's apply this process to the corporate world. Companies today focus on manufacturing what they produce best and most efficiently, and they trade for everything else. So this means they rely on a global, interconnected, interdependent network of manufacturers to produce these products. In fact, that network is so interconnected it's almost impossible to dismantle and produce products in just one country.
所以,我們把這個過程 應用到企業的世界。 現今的公司會著重在製造 它們最擅長、且能 最有效率生產的東西, 其他的東西就靠貿易來取得。 這意味著,它們仰賴 一個互相連結、互存共生的 全球製造商網路 來生產這些產品。 事實上,那個網路的相互連結性 緊密到幾乎不可能 把它拆開,然後只在 一個國家生產產品。
Let's take a look at the interconnected web we saw a few moments ago, and let's focus on just one strand between the US and Mexico. The Wilson Institute says that shared production represents 40 percent of the half a trillion dollars in trade between the US and Mexico. That's about 200 billion dollars, or the same as the GDP for Portugal. So let's just imagine that the US decides to impose a 20 percent border tax on all imports from Mexico. OK, fine. But do you think Mexico is just going to stand by and let that happen? No. No way. So in retaliation, they impose a similar tax on all goods being imported from the US, and a little game of tit-for-tat ensues, and 20 percent -- just imagine that 20 percent duties are added to every good, product, product component crossing back and forth across the border, and you could be looking at more than a 40 percent increase in duties, or 80 billion dollars. Now, don't kid yourself, these costs are going to be passed along to you and to me. Now, let's think about what impact that might have on some of the products, or the prices of the products, that we buy every day. So if a 30 percent increase in duties were actually passed along, we would be looking at some pretty important increases in prices. A Lincoln MKZ would go from 37,000 dollars to 48,000. And the price of a Sharp 60-inch HDTV would go from 898 dollars to 1,167 dollars. And the price of a 16-ounce jar of CVS skin moisturizer would go from 13 dollars to 17 dollars. Now, remember, this is only looking at one strand of the production chain between the US and Mexico, so multiply this out across all of the strands. The impact could be considerable.
我們來看看剛才的 相互連結網路圖, 我們把焦點放在美國和墨西哥 之間的這個部份就好。 威爾遜機構說,共享生產就佔了 美國和墨西哥間共 五千億美元之貿易的 40%。 那就是大約兩千億美元, 等同於葡萄牙的國內生產總值。 我們來想像一下, 如果美國決定要針對所有來自 墨西哥的進口, 施加 20% 的邊境稅。 好,沒問題。 但,你認為墨西哥會 袖手旁觀讓它發生嗎? 不會,不可能。 為了報復,他們會針對從美國 進口的所有商品課徵類似的稅, 接著就是一報還一報的小遊戲, 20% ──想像一下,20% 的關稅 被加到從邊境進進出出的 每一樣商品、產品、產品元件上, 可能會因此增加超過 40% 的關稅, 即八百億美元。 不要自欺欺人了, 這些成本都會轉嫁到 你我身上。 現在,再來想想我們 每天購買的那些產品、 或其價格,會受到什麼影響。 如果實際上轉嫁 30% 的增加關稅 , 我們將會看到價格被調升許多。 林肯汽車 MKZ 車款的價格 會從 $37,000 提升到 $48,000。 夏普的高畫質電視價格 會從 $898 提升到 $1,167。 而 16 盎司的 CVS 藥局 罐裝護膚液價格 會從 $13 提升到 $17。 別忘了,這只是美國和墨西哥 之間的一條生產鏈而已, 如果把其它部份都乘進來, 影響會非常巨大。
Now, just think about this: even if we were able to dismantle this network and produce products in just one country, which by the way is easier said than done, we would still only be saving or protecting one out of 10 lost manufacturing jobs. That's right, because remember, most of those jobs, 87 percent, were lost due to improvements in our own productivity. And unfortunately, those jobs, they're gone for good. So the real question is, does it make sense for us to drive up prices to the point where many of us can't afford the basic goods we use every day for the purpose of saving a job that might be eliminated in a couple of years anyway?
想想這一點: 即使我們有辦法拆解這個網路, 只在一個國家中生產產品, 我只能說,說的比做的容易, 我們還是只能拯救或是保護 十個被縮減的製造業工作中的一個。 沒錯,別忘了, 因為大部份這些工作,有 87%, 是因為我們自己生產力的 改善而消失掉的。 不幸的是,那些工作 永遠不會再回來了。 所以,真正的問題是, 這麼做合理嗎? 把日用品價格提高到 許多人都無法負擔的程度, 只是為了拯救一些工作, 且這些工作在幾年後 終究還是會消失?
The reality is that shared production allows us to manufacture higher quality products at lower costs. It's that simple. It allows us to get more out of the limited resources and expertise we have and at the same time benefit from lower prices. It's really important to remember that for shared production to be effective, it relies on efficient cross-border movement of raw materials, components and finished products.
現實是,共享生產 讓我們能用較低的成本來製造出 更高品質的產品。 就這麼簡單。 它讓我們能從有限的資源和專長中, 盡可能得到更多, 同時我們還享有價格較低的好處。 很重要的是要記住, 若要讓共享生產能有效地發揮作用, 就需要讓原料、元件、成品都能 有效率地通過邊境。
So remember this: the next time you're hearing somebody try to sell you on the idea that protectionism is a good deal, it's just not.
所以,切記這一點: 下次,你聽到有人要說服你說 保護主義是個很好的辦法時, 你要知道並非如此。
Thank you.
謝謝。
(Applause)
(掌聲)