In 1962 at Rice University, JFK told the country about a dream he had, a dream to put a person on the moon by the end of the decade. The eponymous moonshot.
Godine 1962. na univerzitetu Rajs Džon F. Kenedi je saopštio državi svoj san, san da će da smeste osobu na mesec do kraja decenije. Takozvani pohod na mesec.
No one knew if it was possible to do but he made sure a plan was put in place to do it if it was possible. That's how great dreams are. Great dreams aren't just visions, they're visions coupled to strategies for making them real.
Niko nije znao da li je to moguće izvesti, ali se postarao da osmisli plan kako bi to ostvario, ukoliko je moguće. Takvi su veliki snovi. Veliki snovi nisu puke vizije, to su vizije uparene sa strategijama kako bi bili ostvareni.
I have the incredible good fortune to work at a moonshot factory. At X -- formerly called Google X -- you'll find an aerospace engineer working alongside a fashion designer and former military ops commanders brainstorming with laser experts. These inventors, engineers and makers are dreaming up technologies that we hope can make the world a wonderful place.
Imam neverovatnu sreću da radim u fabrici nalik pohodu na mesec. U Iksu - koji se nekad zvao Gugl Iks - naći ćete vazdušno-kosmičkog inženjera kako radi sa modnim dizajnerom i bivše komandante vojnih operacija kako smišljaju ideje sa laserskim ekspertima. Ti izumitelji, inženjeri i stvaraoci maštaju o tehnologijama za koje se nadamo da će svet da pretvore u čarobno mesto.
We use the word "moonshots" to remind us to keep our visions big -- to keep dreaming. And we use the word "factory" to remind ourselves that we want to have concrete visions -- concrete plans to make them real.
Koristimo izraz "pohod na mesec" da bi naše vizije bile velike - da bi nastavili da maštamo. A koristimo reč "fabrika" kao podsetnik da želimo da imamo konkretne vizije - konkretne planove koje ćemo da realizujemo.
Here's our moonshot blueprint. Number one: we want to find a huge problem in the world that affects many millions of people. Number two: we want to find or propose a radical solution for solving that problem. And then number three: there has to be some reason to believe that the technology for such a radical solution could actually be built.
Ovo je shema našeg pohoda na mesec. Pod jedan: želimo da orktijemo ogroman problem u svetu koji pogađa milione ljudi. Pod dva: želimo da otkrijemo ili da predložimo radikalno rešenje za taj problem. A zatim pod tri: mora da postoji razlog da verujemo da tehnologiju za tako radikalno rešenje zaista možemo sagraditi.
But I have a secret for you. The moonshot factory is a messy place. But rather than avoid the mess, pretend it's not there, we've tried to make that our strength. We spend most of our time breaking things and trying to prove that we're wrong. That's it, that's the secret. Run at all the hardest parts of the problem first. Get excited and cheer, "Hey! How are we going to kill our project today?"
Ali otkriću vam tajnu. Fabrika pohodovanja na mesec je neuredno mesto. Ali umesto da izbegavamo nered ili se pretvaramo da ne postoji, pokušali smo to da pretvorimo u prednost. Provodimo toliko vremena uništavajući stvari i pokušavajući da dokažemo da nismo u pravu. To je to, to je tajna. Prvo se bavimo najtežim delovima problema. Uzbuđeno kličemo: "Hej! Kako ćemo danas da uništimo projekat?"
We've got this interesting balance going where we allow our unchecked optimism to fuel our visions. But then we also harness enthusiastic skepticism to breathe life, breathe reality into those visions.
Imamo tu neku zanimljivu ravnotežu gde dozvoljavamo našem nerealnom optimizmu da pokreće naše vizije. Ali takođe gajimo entuzijastičnu skepsu da udahne život, da udahne stvarnost u te vizije.
I want to show you a few of the projects that we've had to leave behind on the cutting room floor, and also a few of the gems that at least so far, have not only survived that process, but have been accelerated by it.
Želim da vam pokažem nekoliko projekata koje smo morali da odbacimo u fazi izgradnje, kao i nekoliko dragulja koji, bar za sad, ne samo da su preživeli taj proces, već ih je on ubrzao.
Last year we killed a project in automated vertical farming. This is some of the lettuce that we grew. One in nine people in the world suffers from undernourishment. So this is a moonshot that needs to happen. Vertical farming uses 10 times less water and a hundred times less land than conventional farming. And because you can grow the food close to where it's consumed, you don't have to transport it large distances. We made progress in a lot of the areas like automated harvesting and efficient lighting. But unfortunately, we couldn't get staple crops like grains and rice to grow this way. So we killed the project.
Prošle godine smo ukinuli projekat automatizovane vertikalne zemljoradnje. Ovo je deo zelene salate koju smo uzgojili. Jedan od pet ljudi u svetu pati od neuhranjenosti. Pa je ovo "pohod na mesec" koji mora da se desi. Vertikalna zemljoradnja troši deset puta manje vode i sto puta manje zemlje od uobičajene zemljoradnje. A stoga što možete da uzgajate hranu blizu mesta gde se konzumira, ne morate da je transportujete na udaljena mesta. Postigli smo napredak u mnogim oblastima, poput automatizovane berbe i efikasnog osvetljenja. Međutim, nažalost, nismo mogli da ovako uzgajamo osnovne useve, poput žitarica i pirinča. Pa smo okončali projekat.
Here's another huge problem. We pay enormous costs in resources and environmental damage to ship goods worldwide. Economic development of landlocked countries is limited by lack of shipping infrastructure. The radical solution? A lighter-than-air, variable-buoyancy cargo ship. This has the potential to lower, at least overall, the cost, time and carbon footprint of shipping without needing runways. We came up with this clever set of technical breakthroughs that together might make it possible for us to lower the cost enough that we could actually make these ships -- inexpensively enough in volume. But however cheap they would have been to make in volume it turned out that it was going to cost close to 200 million dollars to design and build the first one.
Još jedan ogroman problem. Plaćamo ogromnu cenu u resursima i šteti po okolinu kako bi prevozili robu širom sveta. Ekonomski razvoj zemalja bez izlaza na more je ograničen nedostatkom brodske infrastrukture. Radikalno rešenje? Lakši od vazduha, podesivi ploveći teretni brod. Ovo ima potencijal da smanji, bar sveukupno, cenu, vreme i ugljeničnu štetu prevoza, a nije mu neophodna pista. Došli smo do ovog pametnog skupa tehničkih pronalazaka koji zajedno možda mogu da nam omoguće da snizimo trošak dovoljno da zapravo možemo da pravimo ove brodove - dovoljno jeftinim na veliko. No koliko god bila jeftina njihova proizvodnja na veliko, ispostavilo se da bi nas koštalo skoro 200 miliona dolara da dizajniramo i napravimo prvi od njih.
200 million dollars is just way too expensive. Because X is structured with these tight feedback loops of making mistakes and learning and new designs, we can't spend 200 million dollars to get the first data point about whether we're on the right track or not. If there's an Achilles' heel in one our projects, we want to know it now, up front, not way down the road. So we killed this project, too.
Dvesta miliona dolara je prosto isuviše skupo. Zato što je Iks struktuiran na čvrstoj petlji povratnih informacija, pravljenju grešaka, učenju i novim dizajnima, ne možemo potrošiti 200 mil. dolara da bismo dobili prvu jedinicu podataka o tome da li smo na pravom putu ili ne. Ako neki od naših projekata ima Ahilovu petu, želimo to odmah da znamo, unapred, a ne kasnije tokom procesa. Pa smo okončali i ovaj projekat.
Discovering a major flaw in a project doesn't always mean that it ends the project. Sometimes it actually gets us onto a more productive path.
Otkriće velike greške u projektu uvek nužno ne znači da će ga to okončati. Ponekad nas zapravo izvede na produktivniji put.
This is our fully self-driving vehicle prototype, which we built without a steering wheel or break pedal. But that wasn't actually our goal when we started.
Ovo je prototip našeg u potpunosti samoupravljajućeg vozila, koje smo napravili bez volana i kočnica. No to nam zapravo nije bio cilj kad smo počinjali.
With 1.2 million people dying on the roads globally every year, building a car that drives itself was a natural moonshot to take. Three and a half years ago, when we had these Lexus, retrofitted, self-driving cars in testing, they were doing so well, we gave them out to other Googlers to find out what they thought of the experience. And what we discovered was that our plan to have the cars do almost all the driving and just hand over to the users in case of emergency was a really bad plan. It wasn't safe because the users didn't do their job. They didn't stay alert in case the car needed to hand control back to them.
Kako 1,2 miliona ljudi umire svake godine na putevima u svetu, izgradnja automobila bez vozača je bio prirodan pohod na mesec. Pre tri i po godine, kada smo testirali ove leksuse, prerađena i samoupravljačka auta, toliko im je dobro išlo, da smo ih poklonili drugim Guglovcima kako bismo saznali šta oni misle o tom iskustvu. A otkrili smo da je naš plan da automobili obavljaju skoro kompletnu vožnju, a da prepuštaju kontrolu korisnicima samo u slučaju opasnosti, bio zaista loš plan. To nije bilo bezbedno jer korisnici nisu obavljali svoj deo posla. Nisu bili na oprezu, u slučaju da je bilo potrebno da im automobil preda kontrolu.
This was a major crisis for the team. It sent them back to the drawing board. And they came up with a beautiful, new perspective. Aim for a car where you're truly a passenger. You tell the car where you want to go, you push a button and it takes you from point A to point B by itself.
Ovo je bila velika kriza za ekipu. Vratilo ih je nazad na skiciranje. I došli su do prelepe, nove perspektive. Cilj je automobil u kom ste istinski putnik. Kažete automobilu kuda želite da idete, pritisnete dugme i sam vas odvede od tačke A do tačke B.
We're really grateful that we had this insight as early on in the project as we did. And it's shaped everything we've done since then. And now our cars have self-driven more than 1.4 million miles, and they're out everyday on the streets of Mountain View, California and Austin, Texas.
Zahvalni smo što smo spoznali ovo tako rano tokom projekta. I to je oblikovalo sve što smo od tad uradili. A naši samoupravljajući automobili su trenutno prešli više od 2,25 miliona km i svakodnevno su napolju na ulicama Mauntin Vjua u Kaliforniji i Ostina u Teksasu.
The cars team shifted their perspective. This is one of X's mantras. Sometimes shifting your perspective is more powerful than being smart.
Ekipa na automobilima je promenila perspektivu. Ovo je jedna od Iksovih mantri. Ponekad je promeniti perspektivu moćnije nego biti pametan.
Take wind energy. It's one of my favorite examples of perspective shifting. There's no way that we're going to build a better standard wind turbine than the experts in that industry. But we found a way to get up higher into the sky, and so get access to faster, more consistent winds, and so more energy without needing hundreds of tons of steel to get there.
Uzmite energiju vetra. To je jedan od mojih omiljenih primera izmene perspektive. Nema šanse da možemo da napravimo bolju standardnu vetrenu turbinu od stručnjaka iz te industrije. Ali smo pronašli način da ih podignemo više u nebo, i tako dobijemo pristup bržim, konzistentnijim vetrovima, a tako i više energije, bez neophodnosti tona čelika da bismo to postigli.
Our Makani energy kite rises up from its perch by spinning up those propellers along its wing. And it pulls out a tether as it rises, pulling energy up through the tether. Once the tether's all the way out, it goes into crosswind circles in the sky. And now those propellers that lifted it up have become flying turbines. And that sends energy back down the tether.
Naš energetski zmaj makani podiže se s motke, tako što okreće te propelere duž njegovog krila. I izvlači kabal kako se podiže, izvlačeći energiju preko kabla. Čim se kabal skroz odmota, počinje da kruži po bočnim vetrovima na nebu. A sada su ti propeleri, kojima se podigao, postali leteće turbine. A to vraća energiju nazad niz kabal.
We haven't yet found a way to kill this project. And the longer it survives that pressure, the more excited we get that this could become a cheaper and more deployable form of wind energy for the world.
Još nismo otkrili način da okončamo ovaj projekat. A što duže odoleva pritisku, mi smo uzbuđeniji jer bi ovo moglo da postane jeftiniji i prošireniji oblik upotrebe energije od vetra u svetu.
Probably the craziest sounding project we have is Project Loon. We're trying to make balloon-powered Internet. A network of balloons in the stratosphere that beam an internet connection down to rural and remote areas of the world. This could bring online as many as four billion more people, who today have little or no internet connection.
Naš projekat koji verovatno najluđe zvuči je Projekat lun. Pokušavamo da sagradimo internet napajanje iz balona. Mrežu balona u stratosferi koji bi odašiljali internet konekciju u ruralne i udaljene oblasti u svetu. Ovo bi moglo da priključi na internet čak još četiri milijarde ljudi, koji trenutno imaju slab ili nikakav internet.
But you can't just take a cell tower, strap it to a balloon and stick it in the sky. The winds are too strong, it would be blown away. And the balloons are too high up to tie it to the ground.
Ali ne možete prosto da uzmete mobilni odašiljač, vežete ga za balon i bacite na nebo. Vetrovi su suviše jaki, oduvali bi ga. A baloni su suviše visoko u vazduhu da bi bili vezani za zemlju.
Here comes the crazy moment. What if, instead, we let the balloons drift and we taught them how to sail the winds to go where the needed to go? It turns out the stratosphere has winds that are going in quite different speeds and directions in thin strata. So we hoped that using smart algorithms and wind data from around the world, we could maneuver the balloons a bit, getting them to go up and down just a tiny bit in the stratosphere to grab those winds going in those different directions and speeds. The idea is to have enough balloons so as one balloon floats out of your area, there's another balloon ready to float into place, handing off the internet connection, just like your phone hands off between cell towers as you drive down the freeway.
Tu stižemo do ludog trena. Šta ako bismo, umesto da dozvolimo balonima da lutaju, naučili ih kako da jedre vetrovima kako bi stigli gde je to potrebno? Ispostavilo se da vetrovi u stratosferi duvaju prilično različitim brzinama i pravcima u gustoj strati. Pa smo se nadali da ćemo pametnim algoritmima i podacima o vetru širom sveta moći bar malo da upravljamo balonima, da ćemo ih navesti da idu gore i dole samo malčice u stratosferi kako bi uhvatili te vetrove koji se kreću različitim smerovima i brzinama. Zamisao je da imamo dovoljno balona, pa kad jedan balon odluta van vašeg područja, tu je drugi balon, spreman da ulebdi na njegovo mesto, prebacujući internet vezu, baš kao što se vaš telefon prebacuje od predajnika do predajnika dok se vozite auto-putem.
We get how crazy that vision sounds -- there's the name of the project to remind us of that. So since 2012, the Loon team has prioritized the work that seems the most difficult and so the most likely to kill their project.
Razumemo koliko blesavo ova vizija zvuči - samo ime projekta nas podseća na to. Pa od 2012. Lun ekipa je stavila za prioritet posao koji se činio najtežim i najizglednijim da okonča projekat.
The first thing that they did was try to get a Wi-Fi connection from a balloon in the stratosphere down to an antenna on the ground. It worked. And I promise you there were bets that it wasn't going to. So we kept going.
Prvo što su uradili, pokušali su da pošalju vaj-faj vezu iz balona u stratosferi do antene dole na zemlji. Funkcionisalo je. I kunem se da su se neki kladili da neće. Pa smo nastvili s radom.
Could we get the balloon to talk directly to handsets, so that we didn't need the antenna as an intermediary receiver? Yeah.
Možemo li da navedemo balon da razgovara direktno sa slušalicama, kako nam ne bi bila potrebna antena kao posredni resiver? Da.
Could we get the balloon bandwidth high enough so it was a real Internet connection? So that people could have something more than just SMS? The early tests weren't even a megabit per second, but now we can do up to 15 megabits per second. Enough to watch a TED Talk.
Možemo li postići da protok u balonu bude dovoljno brz da to bude istinska internet veza? Kako bi ljudi mogli da primaju nešto više od tekstualnih poruka? Kod najranijih testiranja nije se radilo ni o megabitu po sekundi, ali sad već postižemo i do 15 megabita po sekundi. Može da se gleda TED govor.
Could we get the balloons to talk to each other through the sky so that we could reach our signal deeper into rural areas? Check.
Možemo li da postignemo da baloni međusobno komuniciraju na nebu, kako bi naš signal dosegao udaljenije ruralne oblasti? Obavljeno je i to.
Could we get balloons the size of a house to stay up for more than 100 days, while costing less than five percent of what traditional, long-life balloons have cost to make? Yes. In the end. But I promise you, you name it, we had to try it to get there. We made round, silvery balloons. We made giant pillow-shaped balloons. We made balloons the size of a blue whale. We busted a lot of balloons.
Možemo li da postignemo da baloni veličine kuće lebde više od 100 dana, koštajući manje od pet procenata od cene izrade tradicionalnih, dugovečnih balona? Uspeli smo na kraju. Ali kunem se, sve smo isprobali da bismo u tome uspeli. Pravili smo okrugle, srebrnkaste balone. Pravili smo džinovske balone u obliku jastuka. Pravili smo balone veličine plavog kita. Probušili smo gomilu balona.
(Laughter)
(Smeh)
Since one of the things that was most likely to kill the Loon project was whether we could guide the balloons through the sky, one of our most important experiments was putting a balloon inside a balloon.
Kako se činilo da će najverovatnije da okonča Lun projekat to da li ćemo uspeti da upravljamo balonima kroz nebo, jedan od naših najvažnijih eksperimenata je bio stavljanje balona u balon.
So there are two compartments here, one with air and then one with helium. The balloon pumps air in to make itself heavier, or lets air out to make it lighter. And these weight changes allow it to rise or fall, and that simple movement of the balloon is its steering mechanism. It floats up or down, hoping to grab winds going in the speed and direction that it wants.
Dakle, imamo dve pregrade ovde, jednu s vazduhom, drugu s helijumom. Balon upumpava vazduh da bi bio teži ili ga ispušta kako bi bio lakši. A ove promene u težini mu omogućuju da se diže ili spušta, a ti prosti pokreti balona su njegov mehanizam upravljanja. On lebdi na gore ili na dole, u nadi da će da uhvati vetrove željenog pravca i brzine.
But is that good enough for it to navigate through the world? Barely at first, but better all the time.
Ali da li je to dovoljno da bi se kretao kroz svet? Na početku, jedva da je bilo, ali se stalno popravljalo.
This particular balloon, our latest balloon, can navigate a two-mile vertical stretch of sky and can sail itself to within 500 meters of where it wants to go from 20,000 kilometers away.
Baš ovaj balon, naš najnoviji balon, u stanju je da se snalazi vertikalnim rasponom na nebu od 3,22 km i može automatski da plovi na 500 metara do cilja iz udaljenosti od 20,000 kilometara.
We have lots more to do in terms of fine-tuning the system and reducing costs. But last year, a balloon built inexpensively went around the world 19 times over 187 days. So we're going to keep going.
Imamo još mnogo posla, u smislu finog podešavanja sistema i umanjenja troškova. Ali prošle godine, jeftino napravljen balon je 19 puta obišao svet za 187 dana. Pa ćemo nastaviti dalje.
(Applause)
(Aplauz)
Our balloons today are doing pretty much everything a complete system needs to do. We're in discussions with telcos around the world, and we're going to fly over places like Indonesia for real service testing this year.
Naši današnji baloni rade skoro sve što bi kompletan sistem trebalo da radi. Razgovaramo sa telekomunikacijskim firmama širom sveta i ove godine ćemo leteti iznad mesta, poput Indonezije, radi stvarnog testiranja ove usluge.
This probably all sounds too good to be true, and you're right. Being audacious and working on big, risky things makes people inherently uncomfortable.
Sve ovo verovatno zvuči suviše dobro da bi bilo istina i u pravu ste. Kad ste odvažni i radite na velikim, rizičnim stvarima osećate se po prirodi nelagodno.
You cannot yell at people and force them to fail fast. People resist. They worry. "What will happen to me if I fail? Will people laugh at me? Will I be fired?"
Ne možete da vičete na ljude i da ih naterate da brzo pogreše. Ljudi se opiru. Sekiraju se. "Šta će se desiti sa mnom, ako ne uspem? Hoće li mi se ljudi smejati? Hoće li me otpustiti?"
I started with our secret. I'm going to leave you with how we actually make it happen. The only way to get people to work on big, risky things -- audacious ideas -- and have them run at all the hardest parts of the problem first, is if you make that the path of least resistance for them.
Započeo sam našom tajnom. Završiću time kako zapravo ostvarujemo naše zamisli. Jedini način da navedete ljude da rade na velikim, rizičnim stvarima - odvažnim idejama - i da ih navedete da na početku obave najteže delove problema, je da to, za njih, pretvorite u liniju manjeg otpora.
We work hard at X to make it safe to fail. Teams kill their ideas as soon as the evidence is on the table because they're rewarded for it. They get applause from their peers. Hugs and high fives from their manager, me in particular. They get promoted for it. We have bonused every single person on teams that ended their projects, from teams as small as two to teams of more than 30.
Vredno radimo u Iksu kako bi neuspeh bio bezbedan. Ekipe okončavaju svoje ideje čim se pojavi dokaz za to jer ih nagrađuju zbog toga. Dobijaju aplauz od kolega. Menadžer, naročito ja, ih grli i baca im petaka. Unapređuju ih zbog toga. Isplatili smo bonus svakome u ekipama koje su okončale svoje projekte, od malih ekipa s dva člana do ekipa sa preko 30 članova.
We believe in dreams at the moonshot factory. But enthusiastic skepticism is not the enemy of boundless optimism. It's optimism's perfect partner. It unlocks the potential in every idea. We can create the future that's in our dreams.
U fabrici pohodovanja na mesec verujemo u snove. Ali entuzijastični skepticizam nije neprijatelj neobuzdanom optimizmu. On je savršen partner za optimizam. On oslobađa potencijal kod svake ideje. Možemo da stvorimo budućnost koju sanjamo.
Thank you very much.
Mnogo vam hvala.
(Applause)
(Aplauz)