In 1962 at Rice University, JFK told the country about a dream he had, a dream to put a person on the moon by the end of the decade. The eponymous moonshot.
1962 na sveučilištu Rice, J.F.K. je Amerikancima ispričao svoj san, san da pošalje osobu na Mjesec do kraja desetljeća. Slavno osvajanje Mjeseca.
No one knew if it was possible to do but he made sure a plan was put in place to do it if it was possible. That's how great dreams are. Great dreams aren't just visions, they're visions coupled to strategies for making them real.
Nitko nije znao može li se to učiniti. Ali on je osigurao da se napravi plan da se to učini ako bude moguće. To je snaga snova. Veliki snovi nisu samo vizije, oni su vizije vezane za strategije koje ih čine stvarnima.
I have the incredible good fortune to work at a moonshot factory. At X -- formerly called Google X -- you'll find an aerospace engineer working alongside a fashion designer and former military ops commanders brainstorming with laser experts. These inventors, engineers and makers are dreaming up technologies that we hope can make the world a wonderful place.
Imam puno sreće što što radim u tvornici Osvajanja Mjeseca U X-u, nekad zvanom Google X, zrakoplovni inženjeri rade s modnim dizajnerima, a bivši vojni zapovjednici razmjenjuju ideje sa stručnjacima za laser. Ti izumitelji, inženjeri i stvaratelji osmišljavaju tehnologije za koje se nadamo da mogu učiniti svijet predivnim mjestom.
We use the word "moonshots" to remind us to keep our visions big -- to keep dreaming. And we use the word "factory" to remind ourselves that we want to have concrete visions -- concrete plans to make them real.
Koristimo izraz "osvajanje Mjeseca" da bi naše vizije ostale velike, da nastavimo sanjati. Koristimo riječ "tvornica" da se podsjetimo da moramo imati konkretne vizije, konkretne planove kojima ćemo ih ostvariti.
Here's our moonshot blueprint. Number one: we want to find a huge problem in the world that affects many millions of people. Number two: we want to find or propose a radical solution for solving that problem. And then number three: there has to be some reason to believe that the technology for such a radical solution could actually be built.
Ovo je naš nacrt osvajanja Mjeseca. Prvo: želimo pronaći veliki problem u svijetu koji utječe na milijune ljudi. Drugo: želimo pronaći ili predložiti radikalno rješenje za taj problem. I treće: mora postojati razlog da vjerujemo da se tehnologija za takvo radikalno rješenje zaista može napraviti.
But I have a secret for you. The moonshot factory is a messy place. But rather than avoid the mess, pretend it's not there, we've tried to make that our strength. We spend most of our time breaking things and trying to prove that we're wrong. That's it, that's the secret. Run at all the hardest parts of the problem first. Get excited and cheer, "Hey! How are we going to kill our project today?"
Ali odat ću vam tajnu. Tvornica osvajanja Mjeseca je neuredno mjesto. Ali umjesto da izbjegavamo nered, i pravimo se da ne postoji, pokušali smo to učiniti našom prednosti. Većinu vremena rastavljamo stvari i pokušavamo dokazati da smo u krivu. To je to, to je tajna. Rješavati prvo najteže dijelove problema. Uzbuđeno uzvikivati, "Hej! Kako ćemo danas ubiti projekt?"
We've got this interesting balance going where we allow our unchecked optimism to fuel our visions. But then we also harness enthusiastic skepticism to breathe life, breathe reality into those visions.
Imamo zanimljivu ravnotežu u kojoj naš nekontrolirani optimizam hrani naše vizije. Ali mi također koristimo entuzijastični skepticizam da tim vizijama udahnemo život, da im damo realnost.
I want to show you a few of the projects that we've had to leave behind on the cutting room floor, and also a few of the gems that at least so far, have not only survived that process, but have been accelerated by it.
Pokazat ću vam neke od projekata koje smo morali ostaviti na katu za rezanje i nekoliko dragulja koji, bar zasad, nisu samo preživjeli taj proces, nego ih je on pospješio.
Last year we killed a project in automated vertical farming. This is some of the lettuce that we grew. One in nine people in the world suffers from undernourishment. So this is a moonshot that needs to happen. Vertical farming uses 10 times less water and a hundred times less land than conventional farming. And because you can grow the food close to where it's consumed, you don't have to transport it large distances. We made progress in a lot of the areas like automated harvesting and efficient lighting. But unfortunately, we couldn't get staple crops like grains and rice to grow this way. So we killed the project.
Prošle godine smo ukinuli projekt automatskog vertikalnog uzgoja. Ovo je dio salate koju smo uzgojili. Jedna od devet osoba u svijetu pati od neuhranjenosti. To je osvajanje Mjeseca koje treba ostvariti. Vertikalni uzgoj zahtijeva 10 puta manje vode i 100 puta manje zemlje od konvencionalnog uzgoja. A budući da se hrana može uzgojiti blizu mjesta konzumacije, ne mora se prevoziti na udaljena mjesta. Napredovali smo u puno područja, kao u automatskoj berbi i učinkovitoj rasvjeti. Ali nažalost, na ovaj način nismo mogli uzgojiti osnovne usjeve kao žitarice i rižu. Pa smo ukinuli projekt.
Here's another huge problem. We pay enormous costs in resources and environmental damage to ship goods worldwide. Economic development of landlocked countries is limited by lack of shipping infrastructure. The radical solution? A lighter-than-air, variable-buoyancy cargo ship. This has the potential to lower, at least overall, the cost, time and carbon footprint of shipping without needing runways. We came up with this clever set of technical breakthroughs that together might make it possible for us to lower the cost enough that we could actually make these ships -- inexpensively enough in volume. But however cheap they would have been to make in volume it turned out that it was going to cost close to 200 million dollars to design and build the first one.
Evo drugog velikog problema. Plaćamo ogromnu cijenu u resursima i zagađenju okoliša kako bismo prevozili robu širom svijeta. Ekonomski razvoj zemalja bez izlaza na more ograničen je nedostatkom prijevozne infrastrukture. Radikalno rješenje? Teretni brod lakši od zraka, promjenjivog pogona. Ovo može smanjiti, barem sveukupno, trošak, vrijeme i ugljični otisak prijevoza bez potrebe za pistama. Osmislili smo domišljat skup tehničkih otkrića koji bi nam zajedno možda omogućili da smanjimo cijene dovoljno da zaista napravimo te brodove dovoljno jeftine na veliko. Ali koliko god da se jeftino mogu napraviti u velikoj količini, ispostavilo se da će koštati gotovo 200 milijuna dolara da se dizajnira i sagradi prvi brod.
200 million dollars is just way too expensive. Because X is structured with these tight feedback loops of making mistakes and learning and new designs, we can't spend 200 million dollars to get the first data point about whether we're on the right track or not. If there's an Achilles' heel in one our projects, we want to know it now, up front, not way down the road. So we killed this project, too.
200 milijuna dolara je jednostavno preskupo. Budući da je X strukturiran sa čvrstim krugovima povratnog djelovanja pravljenja pogrešaka i učenja i novih dizajna, ne možemo potrošiti 200 milijuna dolara da nam prvi podaci kažu jesmo li na pravom tragu ili ne. Ako u nekom našem projektu postoji Ahilejeva peta, želimo to znati sada, unaprijed, ne tijekom projekta. Pa smo ukinuli i ovaj projekt.
Discovering a major flaw in a project doesn't always mean that it ends the project. Sometimes it actually gets us onto a more productive path.
Otkriće velike mane u projektu ne znači uvijek da se on mora ukinuti. Nekad nas to zapravo odvede na produktivniji put.
This is our fully self-driving vehicle prototype, which we built without a steering wheel or break pedal. But that wasn't actually our goal when we started.
Ovo je naš prototip potpuno automatiziranog vozila, koji smo napravili bez upravljača i kočnice. Ali to nije bio naš cilj kad smo počeli.
With 1.2 million people dying on the roads globally every year, building a car that drives itself was a natural moonshot to take. Three and a half years ago, when we had these Lexus, retrofitted, self-driving cars in testing, they were doing so well, we gave them out to other Googlers to find out what they thought of the experience. And what we discovered was that our plan to have the cars do almost all the driving and just hand over to the users in case of emergency was a really bad plan. It wasn't safe because the users didn't do their job. They didn't stay alert in case the car needed to hand control back to them.
S 1.2 milijuna ljudi u svijetu koji poginu na cesti svake godine, napraviti auto koji se sâm vozi bilo je prirodno osvajanje Mjeseca. Prije tri i pol godine, kad smo testirali Lexuse, poboljšane, autonomne, bili su tako dobri da smo ih dali drugim Googlerima da saznamo što misle o tom iskustvu. I otkrili smo da je naš plan da auti odrade gotovo cijelu vožnju i predaju kontrolu korisnicima u slučaju nužde bio zaista loš plan. Nije bio siguran jer korisnici nisu odradili svoj posao. Nisu bili na oprezu u slučaju da im je auto trebao vratiti kontrolu.
This was a major crisis for the team. It sent them back to the drawing board. And they came up with a beautiful, new perspective. Aim for a car where you're truly a passenger. You tell the car where you want to go, you push a button and it takes you from point A to point B by itself.
To je bila velika kriza za ekipu. Vratila ih je natrag na skiciranje. I osmislili su prekrasnu, novu perspektivu. Ciljali su auto u kojem ste istinski putnik. Kažete autu kamo želite ići, pritisnete tipku i on vas sâm odveze od točke A do točke B.
We're really grateful that we had this insight as early on in the project as we did. And it's shaped everything we've done since then. And now our cars have self-driven more than 1.4 million miles, and they're out everyday on the streets of Mountain View, California and Austin, Texas.
Zaista smo zahvalni da smo to uvidjeli u ovako ranoj fazi projekta. I to je oblikovalo sve što smo otada napravili. I sada su naši auti sâmi odvezli više od 2.25 milijuna kilometara, i svaki dan su vani na ulicama Mountain Viewa u Kaliforniji i Austina u Teksasu.
The cars team shifted their perspective. This is one of X's mantras. Sometimes shifting your perspective is more powerful than being smart.
Automobilske ekipe su promijenile perspektivu. Ovo je jedna od X-ovih izreka. Ponekad je promjena perspektive snažnija od same pameti.
Take wind energy. It's one of my favorite examples of perspective shifting. There's no way that we're going to build a better standard wind turbine than the experts in that industry. But we found a way to get up higher into the sky, and so get access to faster, more consistent winds, and so more energy without needing hundreds of tons of steel to get there.
Na primjer energija vjetra. To mi je jedan od omiljenih primjera promjene perspektive. Nema šanse da napravimo bolju standardnu turbinu na vjetar od stručnjaka u toj industriji. Ali smo pronašli način da ih podignemo više u nebo i tako dobijemo pristup bržim, stalnijim vjetrovima, a uz to i više energije bez potrebe za stotinama tona čelika.
Our Makani energy kite rises up from its perch by spinning up those propellers along its wing. And it pulls out a tether as it rises, pulling energy up through the tether. Once the tether's all the way out, it goes into crosswind circles in the sky. And now those propellers that lifted it up have become flying turbines. And that sends energy back down the tether.
Naš Makani energetski zmaj diže se iz svog postolja vrteći propelere na svom krilu. A dok se diže izvlači kabel, povlačeći energiju kroz kabel. Kad se kabel cijeli izvuče, zmaj kruži na nebu po bočnim vjetrovima. I sad su ti propeleri koji su ga podigli postali leteće turbine. I šalju energiju dolje kablom.
We haven't yet found a way to kill this project. And the longer it survives that pressure, the more excited we get that this could become a cheaper and more deployable form of wind energy for the world.
Još nismo pronašli način da ubijemo ovaj projekt. A što dulje preživi taj pritisak mi smo uzbuđeniji što bi on mogao postati jeftiniji oblik energije vjetra koji je lakše proširiti po svijetu.
Probably the craziest sounding project we have is Project Loon. We're trying to make balloon-powered Internet. A network of balloons in the stratosphere that beam an internet connection down to rural and remote areas of the world. This could bring online as many as four billion more people, who today have little or no internet connection.
Projekt koji vjerojatno najluđe zvuči je Projekt Loon. Pokušavamo napraviti internet s pogonom na balon. Mrežu balona u stratosferi koji odašilju internetsku vezu u ruralne i udaljene dijelove svijeta. To bi moglo priključiti na internet čak 4 milijarde ljudi koji danas imaju slabu ili nikakvu povezanost.
But you can't just take a cell tower, strap it to a balloon and stick it in the sky. The winds are too strong, it would be blown away. And the balloons are too high up to tie it to the ground.
Ali ne možete samo uzeti baznu stanicu, zavezati je za balon i gurnuti je u nebo. Vjetrovi su prejaki, otpuhali bi je. A baloni su previsoko da se pričvrste za zemlju.
Here comes the crazy moment. What if, instead, we let the balloons drift and we taught them how to sail the winds to go where the needed to go? It turns out the stratosphere has winds that are going in quite different speeds and directions in thin strata. So we hoped that using smart algorithms and wind data from around the world, we could maneuver the balloons a bit, getting them to go up and down just a tiny bit in the stratosphere to grab those winds going in those different directions and speeds. The idea is to have enough balloons so as one balloon floats out of your area, there's another balloon ready to float into place, handing off the internet connection, just like your phone hands off between cell towers as you drive down the freeway.
Evo ludog trenutka. Što ako, umjesto toga, pustimo balone da odlete i naučimo ih kako da plove na vjetrovima i odu gdje trebaju otići? Ispostavilo se da su u stratosferi vjetrovi koji različitom brzinom i smjerom idu u tankim slojevima. Nadali da ćemo koristeći pametne algoritme i podatke o vjetrovima diljem svijeta moći malo upravljati balonima, odvesti ih više i niže u jednom malom dijelu stratosfere kako bi uhvatili vjetrove koji pušu u tim različitim smjerovima i brzinama. Zamisao je da imamo dovoljno balona da ako jedan balon odleti iz svog područja imamo drugi balon spreman uletjeti na njegovo mjesto, prebacujući internetsku vezu kao što se vaš mobitel prebacuje između baznih stanica dok vozite autocestom.
We get how crazy that vision sounds -- there's the name of the project to remind us of that. So since 2012, the Loon team has prioritized the work that seems the most difficult and so the most likely to kill their project.
Znamo kako ludo zvuči naša vizija -- tu je i ime projekta da nas podsjeća na to. Zato je od 2012, ekipa Loon davala prednost poslovima koji su se činili najtežima i koji bi najvjerojatnije ubili projekt.
The first thing that they did was try to get a Wi-Fi connection from a balloon in the stratosphere down to an antenna on the ground. It worked. And I promise you there were bets that it wasn't going to. So we kept going.
Prvo što su učinili, pokušali su uspostaviti Wi-Fi mrežu između balona iz stratosfere i antene na tlu. Uspjelo je. A obećajem vam da je bilo oklada da neće. Pa smo nastavili.
Could we get the balloon to talk directly to handsets, so that we didn't need the antenna as an intermediary receiver? Yeah.
Možemo li navesti balon da govori izravno s mobitelom, da nam ne treba antena kao posrednički prijamnik? Da.
Could we get the balloon bandwidth high enough so it was a real Internet connection? So that people could have something more than just SMS? The early tests weren't even a megabit per second, but now we can do up to 15 megabits per second. Enough to watch a TED Talk.
Možemo li podići pojasnu širinu balona dovoljno visoko da bude prava internetska veza? Da ljudi mogu koristiti više od SMS-a? Prvi testovi nisu bili ni megabit po sekundi, ali sada možemo poslati do 15 megabita po sekundi. Dovoljno da pogledamo TED govor.
Could we get the balloons to talk to each other through the sky so that we could reach our signal deeper into rural areas? Check.
Možemo li učiniti da baloni međusobno razgovaraju nebom kako bi poslali naš signal dublje u ruralna predjela. Učinjeno.
Could we get balloons the size of a house to stay up for more than 100 days, while costing less than five percent of what traditional, long-life balloons have cost to make? Yes. In the end. But I promise you, you name it, we had to try it to get there. We made round, silvery balloons. We made giant pillow-shaped balloons. We made balloons the size of a blue whale. We busted a lot of balloons.
Možemo li držati balon veličine kuće u zraku više od 100 dana, s troškovima manjima od 5% od troškova izrade uobičajenih, dugotrajnih balona? Da. Na kraju. Ali obećajem vam, morali smo pokušati sve što zamislite da to uspijemo. Napravili smo male, srebrenkaste balone. Napravili smo ogromne balone u obliku jastuka. Napravili smo balone veličine plavetnog kita. Upropastili smo puno balona.
(Laughter)
(Smijeh)
Since one of the things that was most likely to kill the Loon project was whether we could guide the balloons through the sky, one of our most important experiments was putting a balloon inside a balloon.
Budući da se činilo da ćemo najvjerojatnije ukinuti projekt ako ne možemo navoditi balone po nebu, jedan od najvažnijih eksperimenata bio je staviti balon u drugi balon.
So there are two compartments here, one with air and then one with helium. The balloon pumps air in to make itself heavier, or lets air out to make it lighter. And these weight changes allow it to rise or fall, and that simple movement of the balloon is its steering mechanism. It floats up or down, hoping to grab winds going in the speed and direction that it wants.
Tu su dva pretinca, jedan sa zrakom i drugi s helijem. Balon upuhuje zrak da bude teži, ili ispušta zrak da bude lakši. Promjene težine mu dopuštaju da se diže ili pada, i taj jednostavni pokret balona je upravljački mehanizam. Lebdi gore ili dolje, nadajući se da će uhvatiti vjetar sa željenom brzinom i smjerom.
But is that good enough for it to navigate through the world? Barely at first, but better all the time.
No, je li to dovoljno dobro da se kreće kroz svijet? Ispočetka jedva, ali sve bolje svaki put.
This particular balloon, our latest balloon, can navigate a two-mile vertical stretch of sky and can sail itself to within 500 meters of where it wants to go from 20,000 kilometers away.
Baš ovaj balon, naš najnoviji balon, može putovati 3,22km vertikalno kroz nebo i može doći na 500m od svog cilja s udaljenosti od 20.000 kilometara.
We have lots more to do in terms of fine-tuning the system and reducing costs. But last year, a balloon built inexpensively went around the world 19 times over 187 days. So we're going to keep going.
Još moramo puno toga učiniti u okviru ugođavanja sistema i smanjenja troškova. Ali prošle godine, balon koji smo jeftino napravili prošao je svijet 19 puta u 187 dana. Stoga namjeravamo nastaviti.
(Applause)
(Pljesak)
Our balloons today are doing pretty much everything a complete system needs to do. We're in discussions with telcos around the world, and we're going to fly over places like Indonesia for real service testing this year.
Naši baloni danas čine gotovo sve što potpuni sustavi trebaju činiti. Pregovaramo s telekomunikacijskim tvrtkama diljem svijeta i letjet ćemo iznad mjesta kao što je Indonezija za ispitivanje stvarne usluge ove godine.
This probably all sounds too good to be true, and you're right. Being audacious and working on big, risky things makes people inherently uncomfortable.
Ovo vjerojatno zvuči predobro da bi bilo istinito, i u pravu ste. Biti odvažan i raditi na velikim, riskantnim projektima čini ljude nesigurnima po prirodi.
You cannot yell at people and force them to fail fast. People resist. They worry. "What will happen to me if I fail? Will people laugh at me? Will I be fired?"
Ne možete vikati na ljude i prisiliti ih da brzo podbace. Oni se odupiru. Brinu se. "Što će mi se dogoditi ako ne uspijem? Hoće li mi se svi smijati? Hoće li me otpustiti?"
I started with our secret. I'm going to leave you with how we actually make it happen. The only way to get people to work on big, risky things -- audacious ideas -- and have them run at all the hardest parts of the problem first, is if you make that the path of least resistance for them.
Počeo sam s našom tajnom. Za kraj ću vam reći kako smo je zapravo ostvarili. Jedini način da ljudi rade na velikim, riskantnim projektima -- odvažnim idejama -- i da se bave prvo s najtežim problemima, je da to za njih bude linija najmanje otpora.
We work hard at X to make it safe to fail. Teams kill their ideas as soon as the evidence is on the table because they're rewarded for it. They get applause from their peers. Hugs and high fives from their manager, me in particular. They get promoted for it. We have bonused every single person on teams that ended their projects, from teams as small as two to teams of more than 30.
U X-u naporno radimo da neuspjeh učinimo sigurnim. Ekipe odustaju od svojih ideja čim su dokazi na stolu jer su za to nagrađeni. Dobiju pljesak od kolega. Od menadžera zagrljaje i čestitke, naročito od mene. Za to dobiju promaknuće. Dali smo bonus svakoj osobi u ekipi koja je ukinula svoj projekt, bila to ekipa od samo dva člana ili s više od 30.
We believe in dreams at the moonshot factory. But enthusiastic skepticism is not the enemy of boundless optimism. It's optimism's perfect partner. It unlocks the potential in every idea. We can create the future that's in our dreams.
U tvornici osvajanja Mjeseca vjerujemo u snove. Ali entuzijastični skepticizam nije neprijatelj beskrajnog optimizma. On je savršeni partner optimizma. On otključava potencijal svake ideje. Možemo stvoriti budućnost iz naših snova.
Thank you very much.
Hvala vam puno.
(Applause)
(Pljesak)