So I've been "futuring," which is a term I made up --
I tako, ja sam "budućirao", što je izraz koji sam izmislio...
(Laughter)
(Smijeh)
about three seconds ago. I've been futuring for about 20 years, and when I first started, I would sit down with people, and say, "Hey, let's talk 10, 20 years out." And they'd say, "Great." And I've been seeing that time horizon get shorter and shorter and shorter, so much so that I met with a CEO two months ago and I said -- we started our initial conversation. He goes, "I love what you do. I want to talk about the next six months."
prije otprilike 3 sekunde. Budućiram već 20 godina. Kad sam prvi put počeo, sjeo bih s ljudima i rekao: "Hej, idemo pričati što će biti za 10, 20 godina." I oni bi rekli: "Super." Ja bih promatrao kako je to vremensko razdoblje sve kraće i kraće i kraće, toliko kratko da sam prije 2 mjeseca upoznao direktora s kojim sam započeo prvi razgovor. On je rekao: "Sviđa mi se to što radiš, želim pričati o idućih 6 mjeseci."
(Laughter)
(Smijeh)
We have a lot of problems that we are facing. These are civilizational-scale problems. The issue though is, we can't solve them using the mental models that we use right now to try and solve these problems. Yes, a lot of great technical work is being done, but there is a problem that we need to solve for a priori, before, if we want to really move the needle on those big problems. "Short-termism." Right? There's no marches. There's no bracelets. There's no petitions that you can sign to be against short-termism. I tried to put one up, and no one signed. It was weird.
Imamo mnogo problema s kojima se suočavamo. To su problemi cijele civilizacije. Međutim, problem je u tome što ih mi ne možemo riješiti pomoću mentalnih sklopova koje trenutačno koristimo da probamo i riješimo te probleme. Napravljen je velik tehnološki napredak, ali postoji problem koji trebamo najprije riješiti, a priori, ako zaista želimo pomaknuti stvari oko tih velikih problema. "Kratkoročnost." Jasno? Nema protesta. Nema hapšenja. Nema peticija koje možete potpisati za borbu protiv kratkoročnosti. Ja sam pokrenuo jednu, nitko nije potpisao. Čudno!
(Laughter)
(Smijeh)
But it prevents us from doing so much. Short-termism, for many reasons, has pervaded every nook and cranny of our reality. I just want you to take a second and just think about an issue that you're thinking, working on. It could be personal, it could be at work or it could be move-the-needle world stuff, and think about how far out you tend to think about the solution set for that.
A to nas koči napraviti toliko puno toga. Kratkoročnost je, iz mnogih razloga, prevladala svaki, i najmanji, dio naše stvarnosti. Želim da stanete na sekundu i razmislite o problemu o kojem razmišljate, na kojem radite. Može biti osoban ili povezan s poslom ili može biti jedan od onih koji će promijeniti svijet. Zamislite koliko daleko idete da biste osmislili rješenje za njega.
Because short-termism prevents the CEO from buying really expensive safety equipment. It'll hurt the bottom line. So we get the Deepwater Horizon. Short-termism prevents teachers from spending quality one-on-one time with their students. So right now in America, a high school student drops out every 26 seconds. Short-termism prevents Congress -- sorry if there's anyone in here from Congress --
Jer kratkoročnost sprečava direktore da kupe vrlo skupu sigurnosnu opremu jer će smanjiti profit. Tako nastaju problemi s platformom Deepwater Horizon. Kratkoročnost sprečava učitelje da provedu vrijeme radeći kvalitetno s pojedinim učenicima. Trenutačno u SAD-u jedan srednjoškolski učenik odustaje svakih 26 sekundi. Kratkoročnost sprečava Kongres -- žao mi je ako ovdje ima nekog iz Kongresa --
(Laughter)
(Smijeh)
or not really that sorry --
i nije mi baš tako žao --
(Laughter)
(Smijeh)
from putting money into a real infrastructure bill. So what we get is the I-35W bridge collapse over the Mississippi a few years ago, 13 killed. It wasn't always like this. We did the Panama Canal. We pretty much have eradicated global polio. We did the transcontinental railroad, the Marshall Plan. And it's not just big, physical infrastructure problems and issues. Women's suffrage, the right to vote. But in our short-termist time, where everything seems to happen right now and we can only think out past the next tweet or timeline post, we get hyper-reactionary.
usmjeriti novac u zakon o infrastrukturi. Pa se sruši most I-35W na Mississippiju prije nekoliko godina. 13 mrtvih. Nije uvijek bilo tako. Sagradili smo Panamski kanal. Gotovo smo iskorijenili dječju paralizu u svijetu. Sagradili smo transkontinentalnu željeznicu. Marshallov plan. I ne radi se samo o velikim, fizičkim, infrastrukturnim problemima i izazovima. Pravo glasa ženama. No, u naše kratkoročno vrijeme, gdje se čini da se sve dešava upravo sad i možemo razmišljati samo tijekom nekoliko poruka ili objava, postajemo hiper-nazadni.
So what do we do? We take people who are fleeing their war-torn country, and we go after them. We take low-level drug offenders, and we put them away for life. And then we build McMansions without even thinking about how people are going to get between them and their job. It's a quick buck.
Što ćemo učiniti? Usmjerit ćemo se na izbjeglice iz ratom razorenih zemalja i istjerat ćemo ih. Usmjerit ćemo se na sitne dilere droge i osuditi ih na doživotnu. Sagradit ćemo velike i ružne kuće bez osmišljavanja kako će ljudi stići od njih do posla. To je lagano zarađen novac.
Now, the reality is, for a lot of these problems, there are some technical fixes, a lot of them. I call these technical fixes sandbag strategies. So you know there's a storm coming, the levee is broken, no one's put any money into it, you surround your home with sandbags. And guess what? It works. Storm goes away, the water level goes down, you get rid of the sandbags, and you do this storm after storm after storm. And here's the insidious thing. A sandbag strategy can get you reelected. A sandbag strategy can help you make your quarterly numbers.
Stvarnost je, da za mnoge od tih problema, postoje neka tehnološka rješenja. Mnogo njih. Takva rješenja nazivam strategijom vreće pijeska. Znate da dolazi oluja, nasip je probijen, nitko nije ulagao u održavanje, a vi okružite kuću vrećama pijeska. I znate što? To funkcionira! Oluja prođe, razina vode se spusti, vi se riješite vreća pijeska i to radite ponovno za svake oluje. Tu je i prava podmuklost. Pomoću strategije vreća pijeska možete pobijediti na izborima. Strategija vreća pijeska vam može pomoći postići kvartalne rezultate.
Now, if we want to move forward into a different future than the one we have right now, because I don't think we've hit -- 2016 is not peak civilization.
Ako se želimo pomaknuti naprijed u budućnost drugačiju od one u kojoj smo sad, jer ne vjerujem da smo postigli sve što je trebalo -- 2016. nije vrhunac civilizacije.
(Laughter)
(Smijeh)
There's some more we can do. But my argument is that unless we shift our mental models and our mental maps on how we think about the short, it's not going to happen.
Mora biti nešto što možemo učiniti. No, moj je argument da ako ne promijenimo naše mentalne modele i mentalne mape o tome kako razmišljamo o kratkom, to se neće dogoditi.
So what I've developed is something called "longpath," and it's a practice. And longpath isn't a kind of one-and-done exercise. I'm sure everyone here at some point has done an off-site with a lot of Post-It notes and whiteboards, and you do -- no offense to the consultants in here who do that -- and you do a long-term plan, and then two weeks later, everyone forgets about it. Right? Or a week later. If you're lucky, three months. It's a practice because it's not necessarily a thing that you do. It's a process where you have to revisit different ways of thinking for every major decision that you're working on. So I want to go through those three ways of thinking.
Ono što smo razvili je nešto što zovemo "dugoročnost", to je vještina. Dugoročnost nije vrsta vježbe koju radite samo jednom. Siguran sam da ju je svatko od vas ovdje u nekom trenutku napravio uz puno Post-it bilježaka i bijelih ploča, tada ste napravili -- bez uvrede savjetnicima ovdje koji to rade -- dugoročan plan, i dva tjedna kasnije svi zaborave na njega. Istina? ili tjedan kasnije. Ako ste sretni, tri mjeseca. To je vještina jer to nije nužno nešto uobičajeno. To je proces u kojem trebate primijeniti različite načine razmišljanja za svaku važnu odluku na kojoj radite. Želim proći kroz ta tri načina razmišljanja.
So the first: transgenerational thinking. I love the philosophers: Plato, Socrates, Habermas, Heidegger. I was raised on them. But they all did one thing that didn't actually seem like a big deal until I really started kind of looking into this. And they all took, as a unit of measure for their entire reality of what it meant to be virtuous and good, the single lifespan, from birth to death. But here's a problem with these issues: they stack up on top of us, because the only way we know how to do something good in the world is if we do it between our birth and our death. That's what we're programmed to do. If you go to the self-help section in any bookstore, it's all about you. Which is great, unless you're dealing with some of these major issues. And so with transgenerational thinking, which is really kind of transgenerational ethics, you're able to expand how you think about these problems, what is your role in helping to solve them.
Prvi je međugeneracijsko razmišljanje. Volim filozofe: Platon, Sokrat, Habermas, Heidegger. Odrastao sam s njima. Oni su svi radili jednu stvar koja se, zapravo, nije činila jako važnom dok se nisam zaista udubio u to. Oni su kao jedinicu mjere uzeli njihovu čitavu stvarnost o tome što je značilo biti pun vrlina i dobar, tijekom cijelog života, od rođenja do smrti. Postoji problem s tim stvarima: vise nam nad glavom, jer je jedini način da znamo kako napraviti nešto dobro u svijetu, ako to napravimo između rođenja i smrti. Za to smo napravljeni. Ako odete do knjiga za samopomoć u nekoj knjižari, sve su one o vama. To je dobro, osim ako se ne borite s nekim od tih glavnih izazova. Dakle, transgeneracijsko mišljenje, koje je zapravo vrsta transgeneracijske etike, vam omogućava da proširite način razmišljanja o tim stvarima, koja je vaša uloga u njihovom rješavanju.
Now, this isn't something that just has to be done at the Security Council chamber. It's something that you can do in a very kind of personal way. So every once in a while, if I'm lucky, my wife and I like to go out to dinner, and we have three children under the age of seven. So you can imagine it's a very peaceful, quiet meal.
To nije nešto što se mora napraviti isključivo u dvoranih Vijeća sigurnosti UN-a. To je nešto što možete učiniti na poseban i osoban način. Svako toliko, ako imam sreće, moja supruga i ja iziđemo van na večeru. Imamo troje djece mlađe od sedam godina. Zamislite, to je vrlo mirna i tiha večera.
(Laughter)
(Smijeh)
So we sit down and literally all I want to do is just eat and chill, and my kids have a completely and totally different idea of what we're going to be doing. And so my first idea is my sandbag strategy, right? It's to go into my pocket and take out the iPhone and give them "Frozen" or some other bestselling game thing. And then I stop and I have to kind of put on this transgenerational thinking cap. I don't do this in the restaurant, because it would be bizarre, but I have to -- I did it once, and that's how I learned it was bizarre.
Sjedili smo i jedino što sam želio je jesti i uživati. Moja djeca su imala potpuno drugačiju ideju o tome što ćemo raditi. Moja prva ideja je strategija vreće pijeska, zar ne? Posegnuti u džep, izvući iPhone i pustiti im "Frozen" ili neku drugu popularnu igru. Zastao sam i stavio na glavu kapu za međugeneracijsko razmišljanje. Ne radim to u restoranima jer bi to izgledalo bizarno ali moram -- napravio sam to jednom i tako naučio da je to bizarno.
(Laughter)
(Smijeh)
And you have to kind of think, "OK, I can do this." But what is this teaching them? So what does it mean if I actually bring some paper or engage with them in conversation? It's hard. It's not easy, and I'm making this very personal. It's actually more traumatic than some of the big issues that I work on in the world -- entertaining my kids at dinner. But what it does is it connects them here in the present with me, but it also -- and this is the crux of transgenerational thinking ethics -- it sets them up to how they're going to interact with their kids and their kids and their kids.
I morate misliti: "Dobro, mogu ja to." Ali što ih učim time? Što znači ako izvučem neki tekst ili ih zabavim razgovorom? Teško je. Nije lako i ja to radim vrlo osobno. Zapravo je traumatičnije nego neki veliki izazovi u svijetu na kojima radim -- zabavljati moju djecu tijekom večere. No, ono što postižem je povezivanje s njima u stvarnom vremenu i još -- a to je srž etike transgeneracijskog razmišljanja -- učim ih kako će se oni ponašati s njihovom djecom i djecom njihove djece.
Second, futures thinking. When we think about the future, 10, 15 years out, give me a vision of what the future is. You don't have to give it to me, but think in your head. And what you're probably going to see is the dominant cultural lens that dominates our thinking about the future right now: technology. So when we think about the problems, we always put it through a technological lens, a tech-centric, a techno-utopia, and there's nothing wrong with that, but it's something that we have to really think deeply about if we're going to move on these major issues, because it wasn't always like this. Right? The ancients had their way of thinking about what the future was. The Church definitely had their idea of what the future could be, and you could actually pay your way into that future. Right? And luckily for humanity, we got the scientific revolution. From there, we got the technology, but what has happened -- And by the way, this is not a critique. I love technology. Everything in my house talks back to me, from my children to my speakers to everything.
Drugo, razmišljanje o budućnosti. Kad razmišljamo o budućnosti, 10, 15 godina unaprijed, dobivam viziju što je budućnost. Ne trebate mi je prepričati, samo zamišljajte u svojoj glavi. Ono što ćete vjerojatno vidjeti je prevladavajuće kulturno gledište koje trenutačno prevladava našim razmišljanjem o budućnosti: tehnologija. Kad razmišljamo o problemima, uvijek ih promatramo kroz tehnološko gledište usmjereno na tehnologiju, tražeći spas u tehnologiji. I to je u redu, ali to je nešto o čemu se moramo duboko zamisliti ako želimo pomaknuti te glavne probleme s mrtve točke jer nije uvijek bilo tako, zar ne? Drevni ljudi su imali svoj način razmišljanja o tome što je budućnost. Crkva je definitivno imala svoju ideju kakva bi budućnost mogla biti i zapravo biste mogli sami održati svoj put u tu budućnost. Zar ne? Srećom po čovječanstvo, imamo znanstvenu revoluciju. Iz nje je nastala tehnologija, a ono što se dogodilo -- usput rečeno, to nije kritika. Ja volim tehnologiju. Sve u mojoj kući razgovara sa mnom, od djece do zvučnika i svega ostalog.
(Laughter)
(Smijeh)
But we've abdicated the future from the high priests in Rome to the high priests of Silicon Valley. So when we think, well, how are we going to deal with climate or with poverty or homelessness, our first reaction is to think about it through a technology lens. And look, I'm not advocating that we go to this guy. I love Joel, don't get me wrong, but I'm not saying we go to Joel. What I'm saying is we have to rethink our base assumption about only looking at the future in one way, only looking at it through the dominant lens. Because our problems are so big and so vast that we need to open ourselves up.
Odbacili smo budućnost kakvu su zamislili visoki svećenici u Rimu i prihvatili onu visokih svećenika Silicijske doline. Pa kad razmišljamo kako ćemo se nositi s klimatskim promjenama ili siromaštvom ili beskućnicima, naša prva reakcija je gledati problem kroz ono što nudi tehnologija. Ne kažem da bismo trebali otići do ovog čovjeka. Nemojte me krivo razumjeti, meni se Joel sviđa, ali ne kažem da bismo trebali otići k njemu. Trebali bismo ponovno razmisliti našu osnovnu pretpostavku o tome da budućnost gledamo samo na jedan način, i to onaj dominantan. Naši problemi su tako veliki i tako opsežni da se moramo otvoriti drugačijim razmišljanjima.
So that's why I do everything in my power not to talk about the future. I talk about futures. It opens the conversation again. So when you're sitting and thinking about how do we move forward on this major issue -- it could be at home, it could be at work, it could be again on the global stage -- don't cut yourself off from thinking about something beyond technology as a fix because we're more concerned about technological evolution right now than we are about moral evolution. And unless we fix for that, we're not going to be able to get out of short-termism and get to where we want to be.
Zato radim sve što je u mojoj moći da ne govorim o budućnosti. Ja govorim o budućnostima. To otvara mogućnosti u razgovoru. Pa kad sjedite i razmišljate kako krenuti naprijed u tom velikom problemu -- može biti dom, može biti posao, može biti nešto na svjetskoj razini -- ne ograničavajte se od razmišljanja o nečemu što tehnologija ne može popraviti jer mi smo trenutačno zabrinutiji za tehnološki razvitak nego za moralnu evoluciju. I ako to ne promijenimo, nećemo biti u mogućnosti iskočiti iz kratkoročnosti i doći tamo gdje želimo biti.
The final, telos thinking. This comes from the Greek root. Ultimate aim and ultimate purpose. And it's really asking one question: to what end? When was the last time you asked yourself: To what end? And when you asked yourself that, how far out did you go? Because long isn't long enough anymore. Three, five years doesn't cut it. It's 30, 40, 50, 100 years.
Konačno, telos razmišljanje. Riječ grčkog porijekla. Krajnji cilj i krajnja svrha. I postavlja zaista samo jedno pitanje: prema kakvom kraju? Kad ste se zadnji put upitali: "Kamo idem?" I kad ste se to pitali, koliko daleko ste bili spremni ići? Jer dugo više nije dovoljno dugo. Tri do pet godina je prekratko. Govorimo o 30, 40, 50, 100 godina.
In Homer's epic, "The Odyssey," Odysseus had the answer to his "what end." It was Ithaca. It was this bold vision of what he wanted -- to return to Penelope. And I can tell you, because of the work that I'm doing, but also you know it intuitively -- we have lost our Ithaca. We have lost our "to what end," so we stay on this hamster wheel. And yes, we're trying to solve these problems, but what comes after we solve the problem? And unless you define what comes after, people aren't going to move. The businesses -- this isn't just about business -- but the businesses that do consistently, who break out of short-termism not surprisingly are family-run businesses. They're transgenerational. They're telos. They think about the futures. And this is an ad for Patek Philippe. They're 175 years old, and what's amazing is that they literally embody this kind of longpathian sense in their brand, because, by the way, you never actually own a Patek Philippe, and I definitely won't --
U Homerovom epu "Odiseja", Odisej je morao odgovoriti na svoje "kamo idem?" Odgovor je Itaka. To je bila njegova vizija onog što je htio -- vratiti se Penelopi. I mogu vam reći, jer se time bavim, a i vi to intuitivno znate -- mi smo izgubili našu Itaku. Mi smo izgubili to "kamo idem?" i ostajemo u kotaču za hrčka. I pokušavamo riješiti te probleme, no što dolazi nakon što ih riješimo? I dok ne odredite što dolazi nakon toga, ljudi neće ni prstom maknuti. Poslovni svijet -- ne radi se samo o njima -- poslovni svijet koji je dosljedan u tome, koji prekida s kratkoročnošću je, to nije iznenađenje, obiteljsko poduzetništvo. Oni su međugeneracijski. Oni su telos. Oni smišljaju različite budućnosti. Ovo je oglas za Patek Philippe. Posluju već 175 godina i zapanjujuće je da oni doslovno utjelovljuju taj osjećaj dugoročnosti u svom brendu, jer, zapravo, vi nikad niste vlasnik Patek Philippea, ja svakako nisam --
(Laughter)
(Smijeh)
unless somebody wants to just throw 25,000 dollars on the stage. You merely look after it for the next generation.
osim ako sad netko ne dobaci 25.000 dolara na pozornicu. Vi samo pazite na njega za buduće generacije.
So it's important that we remember, the future, we treat it like a noun. It's not. It's a verb. It requires action. It requires us to push into it. It's not this thing that washes over us. It's something that we actually have total control over. But in a short-term society, we end up feeling like we don't. We feel like we're trapped. We can push through that.
Važno je zapamtiti, da mi budućnost tretiramo kao imenicu. Ona to nije. Budućnost je glagol. Zahtijeva akciju, zahtijeva da uronimo u nju. To nije nešto što nas prelije. To je nešto nad čim, zapravo, imamo kontrolu. Ali u kratkoročnom društvu, imamo osjećaj da tu kontrolu nemamo. Osjećamo se kao u zamci. Možemo izaći iz nje.
Now I'm getting more comfortable in the fact that at some point in the inevitable future, I will die. But because of these new ways of thinking and doing, both in the outside world and also with my family at home, and what I'm leaving my kids, I get more comfortable in that fact. And it's something that a lot of us are really uncomfortable with, but I'm telling you, think it through. Apply this type of thinking and you can push yourself past what's inevitably very, very uncomfortable.
Osjećam se malo ugodnije s činjenicom da ću u nekom trenutku neizbježne budućnosti umrijeti. Ali s ovim novim načinom razmišljanja i rada, i u vanjskom svijetu i u mojoj obitelji, s onim što ostavljam svojoj djeci, osjećam se ugodnije. I to je ono zbog čega je mnogima od nas neugodnije, ali kažem vam, promislite. Primijenite ovaj način razmišljanja i možete se odmaknuti od nečeg što je vrlo, vrlo neugodno.
And it all begins really with yourself asking this question: What is your longpath? But I ask you, when you ask yourself that now or tonight or behind a steering wheel or in the boardroom or the situation room: push past the longpath, quick, oh, what's my longpath the next three years or five years? Try and push past your own life if you can because it makes you do things a little bit bigger than you thought were possible.
Sve počinje time da se zapitate samo jedno pitanje: Koji je moj put? Upozoravam vas, kad se to upitate sada ili večeras, dok vozite, u sobi za rješavanje kriza ili dvorani za sastanke: usmjerite se na dugoročno, kamo idem sljedećih tri do pet godina? Pokušajte i odmaknite se od sadašnjeg načina življenja ako možete jer će vam to omogućiti da učinite malo veće stvari nego što ste mislili da možete.
Yes, we have huge, huge problems out there. With this process, with this thinking, I think we can make a difference. I think you can make a difference, and I believe in you guys.
Da, imamo zaista velike probleme oko nas. Ovakvim procesom, načinom razmišljanja, mislim da možemo napraviti razliku. Mislim da vi možete napraviti razliku i vjerujem u vas.
Thank you.
Hvala vam.
(Applause)
(Pljesak)