Bruno Giussani: Commissioner, thank you for coming to TED.
布鲁诺·吉乌撒尼:专员,感谢您来到TED。
António Guterres: Pleasure.
安东尼奥·古特雷斯:非常荣幸。
BG: Let's start with a figure. During 2015, almost one million refugees and migrants arrived in Europe from many different countries, of course, from Syria and Iraq, but also from Afghanistan and Bangladesh and Eritrea and elsewhere. And there have been reactions of two different kinds: welcoming parties and border fences. But I want to look at it a little bit from the short-term and the long-term perspective. And the first question is very simple: Why has the movement of refugees spiked so fast in the last six months?
布鲁诺:让我们从数据聊起。 2015年,有将近100万难民和移民 从不同国家涌入欧洲, 比如叙利亚和伊拉克,这众所周知, 也有来自于阿富汗、孟加拉、 厄立特里亚等其他国家的。 对此,人们抱持两种态度: 接纳和排斥。 但我想从短期影响和长期影响的角度 来探讨这个问题。 我先问一个很简单的问题: 为什么在过去六个月间 难民数量激增?
AG: Well, I think, basically, what triggered this huge increase was the Syrian refugee group. There has been an increased movement into Europe from Africa, from Asia, but slowly growing, and all of a sudden we had this massive increase in the first months of this year. Why? I think there are three reasons, two long-term ones and the trigger. The long-term ones, in relation to Syrians, is that hope is less and less clear for people. I mean, they look at their own country and they don't see much hope to go back home, because there is no political solution, so there is no light at the end of the tunnel. Second, the living conditions of the Syrians in the neighboring countries have been deteriorating. We just had research with the World Bank, and 87 percent of the Syrians in Jordan and 93 percent of the Syrians in Lebanon live below the national poverty lines. Only half of the children go to school, which means that people are living very badly. Not only are they refugees, out of home, not only have they suffered what they have suffered, but they are living in very, very dramatic conditions.
安东尼奥:我认为难民数量激增 主要是由叙利亚难民引发的。 一直以来,欧洲的移民数量都在增长, 这些移民或来自非洲,或来自亚洲, 但仅仅是缓慢增长, 但在今年年初的几个月间, 移民数量突然飞速增长。 为什么呢?我认为有三个原因, 两个长期性因素和一个触发性因素。 长期性因素和叙利亚人自身有关, 他们越来越看不到希望。 我是指,当他们看到自己国家的局势, 就觉得重返家园希望渺茫, 因为没有政治解决方案, 所以黑暗尽头没有曙光。 另外,叙利亚难民 在周边国家的生存条件持续恶化。 我们和世界银行刚刚进行了一次调查, 发现有87%的居住于约旦的叙利亚人, 以及93%的居住于黎巴嫩的叙利亚人, 都生活在当地贫困线以下。 只有一半的儿童能去上学。 这说明人们生存得非常艰难。 不提他们的难民身份,背井离乡, 也不提他们所经历的磨难, 单单是贫困的生存环境 就足以令他们举步维艰。
And then the trigger was when all of a sudden, international aid decreased. The World Food Programme was forced, for lack of resources, to cut by 30 percent food support to the Syrian refugees. They're not allowed to work, so they are totally dependent on international support, and they felt, "The world is abandoning us." And that, in my opinion, was the trigger. All of a sudden, there was a rush, and people started to move in large numbers and, to be absolutely honest, if I had been in the same situation and I would have been brave enough to do it, I think I would have done the same.
触发性因素就是国际援助突然间减少。 由于资源匮乏,世界粮食计划署 对叙利亚难民的食物供应不得不减少30%。 他们由于没有工作许可, 完全依赖国际援助, 援助减少让他们感觉 “世界正在抛弃我们”。 我认为这就是触发性因素。 突然之间,人们都慌了, 他们开始大批迁移。 说实话,如果我面临同样的处境, 并且有足够的勇气, 我也会那样做的。
BG: But I think what surprised many people is it's not only sudden, but it wasn't supposed to be sudden. The war in Syria has been happening for five years. Millions of refugees are in camps and villages and towns around Syria. You have yourself warned about the situation and about the consequences of a breakdown of Libya, for example, and yet Europe looked totally unprepared.
布鲁诺:不过我认为令人意外的 并不仅仅是事发突然, 而是事情本不该发生得如此突然。 叙利亚内战已经有5年之久了。 数以百万计的难民居住在 叙利亚周边的难民营和难民村里。 您也曾被提醒会有类似情况发生, 比如,利比亚政府倒台可能引发的后果, 但是欧洲看起来似乎毫无准备。
AG: Well, unprepared because divided, and when you are divided, you don't want to recognize the reality. You prefer to postpone decisions, because you do not have the capacity to make them. And the proof is that even when the spike occurred, Europe remained divided and was unable to put in place a mechanism to manage the situation. You talk about one million people. It looks enormous, but the population of the European Union is 550 million people, which means we are talking about one per every [550] Europeans. Now, in Lebanon, we have one refugee per three Lebanese. And Lebanon? Struggling, of course, but it's managing. So, the question is: is this something that could have been managed if -- not mentioning the most important thing, which would have been addressing the root causes, but forgetting about root causes for now, looking at the phenomenon as it is -- if Europe were able to come together in solidarity to create an adequate reception capacity of entry points? But for that, the countries at entry points need to be massively supported, and then screening the people with security checks and all the other mechanisms, distributing those that are coming into all European countries, according to the possibilities of each country. I mean, if you look at the relocation program that was approved by the Commission, always too little too late, or by the Council, too little too late --
安东尼奥:毫无准备 是由于欧洲各国各自为政, 各自为政导致每个国家都不想面对现实。 大家都倾向于拖延着不做决定, 因为大家都没有能力接纳那么多难民。 证据是,即使当移民潮发生后, 欧洲各国仍然各自为政, 他们无法建立能够 应对这种情况的机制。 你刚刚说到有100万难民, 这听起来很多, 但是欧盟的人口总数是5亿5千万, 也就是说每2000个欧洲人应对1个难民。 相比之下,在黎巴嫩, 每3个黎巴嫩人就要应对1个难民。 黎巴嫩的情况如何? 艰难应对,这是自然的, 但是他们做到了。 所以,问题是, 我们是不是也能处理好难民问题, ——暂且不提最重要的因素, 也就是处理难民问题的根本成因, 现在不管问题的成因,只看现象—— 如果欧洲各国能够团结起来, 为入境处创造充足的接纳能力的话。 要做到这一点, 边境国家需要得到大力协助, 对入境难民进行安检, 并实施一切必要的机制, 然后根据每个欧盟国家的接纳能力 向其输送难民。 你可以去看看欧盟委员会批准的 迁移安置计划, 其力度和实效性都远远不够。 布鲁诺:这一计划已经失败了。
BG: It's already breaking down.
安东尼奥:我所在的国家 本应接收4000个难民;
AG: My country is supposed to receive four thousand. Four thousand in Portugal means nothing. So this is perfectly manageable if it is managed, but in the present circumstances, the pressure is at the point of entry, and then, as people move in this chaotic way through the Balkans, then they come to Germany, Sweden, basically, and Austria. They are the three countries that are, in the end, receiving the refugees. The rest of Europe is looking without doing much.
对葡萄牙来说,4000人不算什么。 所以说,如果处理得当, 难民都可以得到妥善安置。 但当下的情况是, 入境处承受了所有的压力, 此后难民毫无秩序地穿过巴尔干地区, 向德国、瑞典和奥地利迁徙。 最终的情况是, 这三个国家在不断地接收难民, 而其他欧洲国家仅是旁观而已。
BG: Let me try to bring up three questions, playing a bit devil's advocate. I'll try to ask them, make them blunt. But I think the questions are very present in the minds of many people in Europe right now, The first, of course, is about numbers. You say 550 million versus one million is not much, but realistically, how many people can Europe take?
布鲁诺:让我再问三个问题, 跟您唱唱反调。 我可能问得比较直接, 但我认为这些问题 正是许多欧洲民众当下关心的。 首先是关于数量。 您提到5亿5千万人应对100万人不成问题, 但现实来讲, 欧洲到底能够接纳多少难民?
AG: Well, that is a question that has no answer, because refugees have the right to be protected. And there is such a thing as international law, so there is no way you can say, "I take 10,000 and that's finished." I remind you of one thing: in Turkey, at the beginning of the crisis, I remember one minister saying, "Turkey will be able to receive up to 100,000 people." Turkey has now two million three-hundred thousand or something of the sort, if you count all refugees.
安东尼奥:这是一个没有答案的问题, 因为难民有受到保护的权利, 国际法中也有这样的规定, 所以你不能说 “我只接收1万人,就这么多”。 我要强调一件事: 我记得在难民危机初期, 土耳其的一位官员曾说过, “土耳其最多能接收10万难民。” 但现在,大约共有230万难民 居住在土耳其。
So I don't think it's fair to say how many we can take. What it is fair to say is: how we can we organize ourselves to assume our international responsibilities? And Europe has not been able to do so, because basically, Europe is divided because there is no solidarity in the European project. And it's not only about refugees; there are many other areas. And let's be honest, this is the moment in which we need more Europe instead of less Europe. But as the public less and less believes in European institutions, it is also each time more difficult to convince the public that we need more Europe to solve these problems.
因此,我认为我们不应该讨论 欧洲能接纳多少难民, 我们应该商榷的是: 欧洲该如何组织起自己, 以担负起在国际事务中的责任? 欧洲还不能做到这一点, 因为,总体来讲, 欧洲各国还是各自为政的, 并没有团结起来共同解决欧洲事务。 不仅仅是在难民问题上, 在其他领域也有许多类似的情况。 说实话,就当下的问题来讲, 我们需要更多欧洲国家参与进来, 而非各自为政。 但由于公众越来越不相信欧盟机构, 我们感到越来越难说服他们 让更多欧洲国家来参与解决问题。 布鲁诺:事情发展到现在,
BG: We seem to be at the point where the numbers turn into political shifts, particularly domestically. We saw it again this weekend in France, but we have seen it over and over in many countries: in Poland and in Denmark and in Switzerland and elsewhere, where the mood changes radically because of the numbers, although they are not very significant in absolute numbers. The Prime Minister of --
难民数量看起来正在影响相关政治决策, 特别是国家内政。 比如这个周末法国宣布的决策, 许多国家都出现过这种情况, 比如波兰、丹麦、瑞士,等等, 这些国家对难民的态度 都由于难民数量而突然转变, 尽管绝对数量的变化并不大。 (某国的)首相……
AG: But, if I may, on these: I mean, what does a European see at home in a village where there are no migrants? What a European sees is, on television, every single day, a few months ago, opening the news every single day, a crowd coming, uncontrolled, moving from border to border, and the images on television were of hundreds or thousands of people moving. And the idea is that nobody is taking care of it -- this is happening without any kind of management. And so their idea was, "They are coming to my village." So there was this completely false idea that Europe was being invaded and our way of life is going to change, and everything will -- And the problem is that if this had been properly managed, if people had been properly received, welcomed, sheltered at point of entry, screened at point of entry, and the moved by plane to different European countries, this would not have scared people. But, unfortunately, we have a lot of people scared, just because Europe was not able to do the job properly.
安东尼奥:请容我对这一情况插句话, 我想说,在一个没有移民居住的小村庄里, 一个普通欧洲人眼中的难民是怎样的呢? 他们在电视上看到, 在几个月前,每一天, 他们只要打开电视就能在新闻里看到, 大量人群涌入,毫无秩序, 从这个国家的边境到那个国家的边境, 电视画面里就是成百上千的人涌入欧洲。 这让他们觉得 没有人对这种情况进行控制—— 这么多难民,却没有人管理。 于是他们感到—— ”这些人都会涌入到我的村庄里来。“ 由此人们形成了一个完全错误的想法: 难民正入侵欧洲, 我们的生活会受到干扰, 所有事情都会…… 问题在于,如果一切都能被妥善管理, 如果难民被以恰当的方式接收, 在入境处接受安检和暂时安置, 然后乘飞机去往其他欧洲国家, 这样就不会让人们产生恐慌情绪了。 但是,很遗憾, 现在许多人都谈难民而色变, 就是因为欧洲没能妥善处理难民问题。
BG: But there are villages in Germany with 300 inhabitants and 1,000 refugees. So, what's your position? How do you imagine these people reacting?
布鲁诺:但是,德国有一些 只有300人居住的村庄, 却迁入了1000个难民。 您对此是怎么看的? 您觉得当地居民会作何反应?
AG: If there would be a proper management of the situation and the proper distribution of people all over Europe, you would always have the percentage that I mentioned: one per each 2,000. It is because things are not properly managed that in the end we have situations that are totally impossible to live with, and of course if you have a village -- in Lebanon, there are many villages that have more Syrians than Lebanese; Lebanon has been living with that. I'm not asking for the same to happen in Europe, for all European villages to have more refugees than inhabitants. What I am asking is for Europe to do the job properly, and to be able to organize itself to receive people as other countries in the world were forced to do in the past.
安东尼奥:如果能实施有效的管理措施, 把难民合理有序地送往欧洲各国, 难民与当地居民比例将会保持在1:2000。 正是由于管理措施不够合理, 我们才陷入了现在这种 令人难以接受的境地。 当然,如果有这样的村庄—— 在黎巴嫩,有许多这样的村庄, 叙利亚人比黎巴嫩人还要多。 黎巴嫩也适应了这种情形。 我并不是说同样的情况 也要发生在欧洲, 让所有欧洲的村庄 都接收比当地居民更多的难民。 我是想让欧洲 以合理的方式承担起它的责任, 能够有规划地接收难民, 就像此前世界上其他国家所做的那样。
BG: So, if you look at the global situation not only at Europe --
布鲁诺:如果我们看一下全球局势, 而不仅仅是欧洲……
(Applause)
(掌声) 布鲁诺:很好!
BG: Yes!
(掌声)
(Applause)
BG: If you look at the global situation, so, not only at Europe, I know you can make a long list of countries that are not really stepping up, but I'm more interested in the other part -- is there somebody who's doing the right thing?
布鲁诺:如果我们看一下全球局势, 而不仅仅是欧洲, 会发现许多国家都并无作为, 但我更关心与之相对的, 有没有哪些国家做得很好呢?
AG: Well, 86 percent of the refugees in the world are in the developing world. And if you look at countries like Ethiopia -- Ethiopia has received more than 600,000 refugees. All the borders in Ethiopia are open. And they have, as a policy, they call the "people to people" policy that every refugee should be received. And they have South Sudanese, they have Sudanese, they have Somalis. They have all the neighbors. They have Eritreans. And, in general, African countries are extremely welcoming of refugees coming, and I would say that in the Middle East and in Asia, we have seen a tendency for borders to be open.
安东尼奥:全世界86%的难民 居住在发展中国家。 某些国家,比如埃塞俄比亚—— 埃塞俄比亚接收了超过60万难民。 其所有边境都为难民开放。 埃塞俄比亚有一项名为“人民互助”的政策, 规定每一位难民都应该被接纳。 那里有来自南苏丹、苏丹、索马里的难民。 他们接收来自所有周边国家的难民, 包括厄立特里亚难民。 总体来说,非洲国家对难民非常热情, 在中东和亚洲,我们也看到了 对难民敞开国门的意愿。 现在,针对叙利亚难民的情况, 有一个特殊问题,
Now we see some problems with the Syrian situation, as the Syrian situation evolved into also a major security crisis, but the truth is that for a large period, all borders in the Middle East were open. The truth is that for Afghans, the borders of Pakistan and Iran were open for, at the time, six million Afghans that came. So I would say that even today, the trend in the developing world has been for borders to be open. The trend in the developed world is for these questions to become more and more complex, especially when there is, in the public opinion, a mixture of discussions between refugee protections on one side and security questions -- in my opinion, misinterpreted -- on the other side.
就是其涉及严重的安全危机。 但事实上,有很长一段时间, 中东各国的边境都是互相开放的。 比如,当时巴基斯坦和伊朗的边境 都为阿富汗人开放, 有600万阿富汗人进入这两个国家。 所以我想说,即使在今天, 发展中国家也愿意为难民敞开国门。 而在发达国家, 这些问题却变得越来越复杂, 特别是当社会舆论 将庇护难民和国家安全问题 混为一谈的时候。 我认为这是对国家安全问题的误读。
BG: We'll come back to that too, but you mentioned the cutting of funding and the vouchers from the World Food Programme. That reflects the general underfunding of the organizations working on these issues. Now that the world seems to have woken up, are you getting more funding and more support, or it's still the same?
布鲁诺:我们一会儿会谈到安全问题。 您刚刚提到世界粮食计划署 物资缩减的情况。 这反映了致力于难民问题的组织 所普遍遇到的资金短缺问题。 现在全世界都是开始关注难民问题了, 你们是否得到了更多的资助和支援, 还是并没有变化?
AG: We are getting more support. I would say that we are coming close to the levels of last year. We were much worse during the summer. But that is clearly insufficient to address the needs of the people and address the needs of the countries that are supporting the people. And here we have a basic review of the criteria, the objectives, the priorities of development cooperation that is required.
安东尼奥:我们得到了更多的支援。 我相信我们正接近去年的水平。 夏天时情况要更糟糕一些。 但这些显然无法满足难民的需求, 也无法满足那些接纳难民的国家的需求。 我们在这里简单了解一下 一些必要的有关发展合作的 准则、目标和优先权。 比如,黎巴嫩和约旦都是中等收入国家。
For instance, Lebanon and Jordan are middle-income countries. Because they are middle-income countries, they cannot receive soft loans or grants from the World Bank. Now, today this doesn't make any sense, because they are providing a global public good. They have millions of refugees there, and to be honest, they are pillars of stability in the region, with all the difficulties they face, and the first line of defense of our collective security. So it doesn't make sense that these countries are not a first priority in development cooperation policies. And they are not. And not only do the refugees live in very dramatic circumstances inside those countries, but the local communities themselves are suffering, because salaries went down, because there are more unemployed, because prices and rents went up. And, of course, if you look at today's situation of the indicators in these countries, it is clear that, especially their poor groups of the population, are living worse and worse because of the crisis they are facing.
由于它们是中等收入国家, 所以无法从世界银行 获得软贷款或补助。 但就当下的情况, 这样做并不合理, 因为它们在为全球公共利益做贡献。 它们接纳了数百万难民, 说实话,它们是保障区域稳定的柱石, 它们为此面对了诸多困难, 并且是全球集体安全的第一道防线。 因此,如果这些国家不能优先享受 发展合作政策的好处, 显然不合情理。 但事实就是 它们没有这种优先权。 在这些国家, 不仅难民生活在极端困苦的环境中, 当地居民的生活也十分艰辛, 这是由于工资降低, 由于失业率上升, 由于物价和租金上涨。 如果看一下这些国家 现今的经济指标, 不难发现, 当地贫困群体的生活处境愈加艰难, 这都源自国家所面临的危机。
BG: Who should be providing this support? Country by country, international organizations, the European Union? Who should be coming up with this support?
布鲁诺:那么该由谁来提供支援呢? 各国政府,国际组织,还是欧盟? 由谁来提供这些支援呢?
AG: We need to join all efforts. It's clear that bilateral cooperation is essential. It's clear that multilateral cooperation is essential. It's clear that international financial institutions should have flexibility in order to be able to invest more massively in support to these countries. We need to combine all the instruments and to understand that today, in protracted situations, at a certain moment, that it doesn't make sense anymore to make a distinction between humanitarian aid and development aid or development processes. Because you are talking about children in school, you are talking about health, you are talking about infrastructure that is overcrowded. You are talking about things that require a long-term perspective, a development perspective and not only an emergency humanitarian aid perspective.
安东尼奥:我们需要各方共同努力。 很明显,双边合作是必要的, 多边合作也是必要的, 国际金融机构也应该有更灵活的政策, 以便可以向这些国家 提供更多的经济援助。 我们需要利用一切手段; 我们需要了解, 这种情况将会长期存在, 所以那种只看眼前, 将人道主义援助与经济发展援助 割裂开来的做法是不合理的。 因为这涉及到学校里的孩子, 涉及到健康问题, 涉及到超负荷的基础设施。 这些问题都需要 以长期的发展的眼光来看待, 仅仅从紧急人道主义援助的角度出发 是不够的。
BG: I would like your comment on something that was in newspapers this morning. It is a statement made by the current front-runner for the Republican nomination for US President, Donald Trump. Yesterday, he said this.
布鲁诺:我想请您对今早报纸上的 这则新闻发表一下意见。 这是一段由处于领先地位的 美国共和党总统候选人 唐纳德·特朗普发表的声明。 昨天,他这样说道——
(Laughter)
(笑声)
No, listen to this. It's interesting. I quote: "I am calling for a total and complete shutdown of Muslims entering the US, until our country's representatives can figure out what's going on." How do you react to that?
别这样,来听听, 这段话很有趣。 他说:“我提议全面禁止穆斯林进入美国, 直到我国的议员们搞清楚 到底发生了什么。” 您对此如何回应?
AG: Well, it's not only Donald Trump. We have seen several people around the world with political responsibility saying, for instance, that Muslims refugees should not be received. And the reason why they say this is because they think that by doing or saying this, they are protecting the security of their countries. Now, I've been in government. I am very keen on the need for governments to protect the security of their countries and their people. But if you say, like that, in the US or in any European country, "We are going to close our doors to Muslim refugees," what you are saying is the best possible help for the propaganda of terrorist organizations. Because what you are saying --
安东尼奥:唐纳德·特朗普并不是特例。 其他国家的几位政治人物 也曾有过类似的言论, “不应该接收穆斯林难民”,诸如此类。 他们之所以这样说, 是由于他们认为 这样的说法或做法 能够保障其国家安全。 我曾在政府机构工作过, 我非常理解维护国家和人民安全 对于政府工作的重要性。 但如果你在美国或任何一个欧洲国家 发表这样的言论—— ”我们拒绝接收穆斯林难民“, 你所说的话就很有可能 被恐怖组织的宣传所利用。 因为你所说的——
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What you are saying will be heard by all the Muslims in your own country, and it will pave the way for the recruitment and the mechanisms that, through technology, Daesh and al-Nusra, al-Qaeda, and all those other groups are today penetrating in our societies. And it's just telling them, "You are right, we are against you." So obviously, this is creating in societies that are all multiethnic, multi-religious, multicultural, this is creating a situation in which, really, it is much easier for the propaganda of these terrorist organizations to be effective in recruiting people for terror acts within the countries where these kinds of sentences are expressed.
你们国家的所有穆斯林 都会听到你的言论, 这会为恐怖组织的 招募和其他机制铺平道路。 现在,通过科技手段, 达伊沙、努斯拉阵线、 基地组织及其他此类团体 正渗入我们的社会。 你所说的话就是在告诉他们, ”是的,我们就是反对你们。“ 所以很明显,在一个多种族、 多宗教、多文化的社会里, 这种言论为恐怖组织的宣传 创造了更为有利的环境, 使其更容易招募到当地人 在发表这种言论的国家 实施恐怖袭击。
BG: Have the recent attacks in Paris and the reactions to them made your job more difficult?
布鲁诺:最近发生在巴黎的恐怖袭击 以及人们对此的反应 有没有增加您工作的难度?
AG: Undoubtedly.
安东尼奥:当然增加了。
BG: In what sense?
布鲁诺:从哪种意义上讲呢?
AG: In the sense that, I mean, for many people the first reaction in relation to these kinds of terrorist attacks is: close all borders -- not understanding that the terrorist problem in Europe is largely homegrown. We have thousands and thousands of European fighters in Syria and in Iraq, so this is not something that you solve by just not allowing Syrians to come in. And I must say, I am convinced that the passport that appeared, I believe, was put by the person who has blown --
安东尼奥:我是指,许多人对此类 恐怖袭击的第一反应就是——关闭边境, 他们没有意识到欧洲恐怖主义问题 大多是在欧洲内部产生的。 在叙利亚和伊拉克, 有成千上万的战士来自欧洲, 所以仅靠拒绝叙利亚人入境 并不能解决问题。 而且我必须讲,我确信, 现场发现的那本护照, 就是那本在引爆炸弹的那个人——
BG: -- himself up, yeah.
布鲁诺:自杀式爆炸袭击者。
AG: [I believe] it was on purpose, because part of the strategies of Daesh is against refugees, because they see refugees as people that should be with the caliphate and are fleeing to the crusaders. And I think that is part of Daesh's strategy to make Europe react, closing its doors to Muslim refugees and having an hostility towards Muslims inside Europe, exactly to facilitate Daesh's work.
安东尼奥:对,我认为那是故意的, 因为达伊沙的政策是反难民的, 他们认为这些难民 本该为伊斯兰王权服务, 却投奔了改革派穆斯林。 那本护照就是达伊沙 在欧洲激起民愤的手段, 让欧洲拒绝接收穆斯林难民, 在欧洲煽动对穆斯林的敌意, 他们便可坐收渔利。
And my deep belief is that it was not the refugee movement that triggered terrorism. I think, as I said, essentially terrorism in Europe is today a homegrown movement in relation to the global situation that we are facing, and what we need is exactly to prove these groups wrong, by welcoming and integrating effectively those that are coming from that part of the world.
我深信不疑的是, 并不是难民潮引发了恐怖主义。 正如我刚才所说, 从根本上讲, 欧洲恐怖主义是在内部滋生的, 这和我们当下所面对的国际局势不无关系。 我们应该让这些恐怖团体知道 他们打错算盘了, 为此,我们要欢迎 从穆斯林地区来的难民, 并让他们尽快融入我们的社会。
And another thing that I believe is that to a large extent, what we are today paying for in Europe is the failures of integration models that didn't work in the '60s, in the '70s, in the '80s, in relation to big migration flows that took place at that time and generated what is today in many of the people, for instance, of the second generation of communities, a situation of feeling marginalized, having no jobs, having improper education, living in some of the neighborhoods that are not adequately provided by public infrastructure. And this kind of uneasiness, sometimes even anger, that exists in this second generation is largely due to the failure of integration policies, to the failure of what should have been a much stronger investment in creating the conditions for people to live together and respect each other. For me it is clear.
另外,我还认为在很大程度上, 欧洲现在是在为其此前 失败的移民融入政策买单。 在上世纪60、70、80年代, 曾有过多次大规模的移民潮, 当时的政策让许多移民的第二代 在今天陷入一种被边缘化的境地, 他们没有工作, 没有接收良好的教育, 生活在缺乏基础公共设施的社区里。 第二代移民的这种不安, 甚至是愤怒, 主要是由失败的移民融入政策造成的。 政府本应该投入更多力量 为人们创造一个互敬互助的社会环境, 但却没有做到。 我深信——
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For me it is clear that all societies will be multiethnic, multicultural, multi-religious in the future. To try to avoid it is, in my opinion, impossible. And for me it's a good thing that they will be like that, but I also recognize that, for that to work properly, you need a huge investment in the social cohesion of your own societies. And Europe, to a large extent, failed in that investment in the past few decades.
我深信,未来所有的社会都会是 多种族、多文化、多宗教共存的。 想要避免这种趋势, 在我看来,是不可能的。 我觉得这是一件好事, 但我知道,要想顺利过渡, 每个社会都需要投入巨大力量 创造其社会凝聚力 而在过去的几十年间, 在很大程度上, 欧洲社会恰恰没有进行这种投入。
BG: Question: You are stepping down from your job at the end of the year, after 10 years. If you look back at 2005, when you entered that office for the first time, what do you see?
布鲁诺:还有个问题,年末您就要退职了, 而您担任此职务已有十年之久。 如果回顾2005年, 您第一次走进办公室的时候, 您有何种感想?
AG: Well, look: In 2005, we were helping one million people go back home in safety and dignity, because conflicts had ended. Last year, we helped 124,000. In 2005, we had about 38 million people displaced by conflict in the world. Today, we have more than 60 million. At that time, we had had, recently, some conflicts that were solved. Now, we see a multiplication of new conflicts and the old conflicts never died: Afghanistan, Somalia, Democratic Republic of Congo. It is clear that the world today is much more dangerous than it was. It is clear that the capacity of the international community to prevent conflicts and to timely solve them, is, unfortunately, much worse than what it was 10 years ago. There are no clear power relations in the world, no global governance mechanisms that work, which means that we live in a situation where impunity and unpredictability tend to prevail, and that means that more and more people suffer, namely those that are displaced by conflicts.
安东尼奥:好吧,我们来看, 2005年,我们帮助了100万人重返家园, 让他们重获安稳和尊严, 因为那一年, 许多地区冲突告一段落。 去年,我们仅帮助了12万4千人。 2005年,由于地区冲突而 背井离乡的人大约有3800万, 今天,有六千多万。 在那个时候,我们解决了一些 当时新近产生的冲突。 而现在,新的冲突成倍增加, 旧有冲突却依然存在, 比如阿富汗问题,索马里问题,刚果问题。 很明显,当今世界更为危险。 很明显,国际社会预防和 及时解决冲突的能力, 很遗憾,不及10年前。 世界上还没有任何明确的权力关系 或全球治理机制起作用, 这说明,我们生存的社会 缺乏完善的惩处机制且愈加不可预测, 越来越多的人因此遭受苦难, 特别是那些因地区冲突而离开家园的人。
BG: It's a tradition in American politics that when a President leaves the Oval Office for the last time, he leaves a handwritten note on the desk for his successor that walks in a couple of hours later. If you had to write such a note to your successor, Filippo Grandi, what would you write?
布鲁诺:美国政治中有一个传统, 上任总统最后离开总统办公室的时候, 会在办公桌上 给几个小时后走进办公室的继任者 留下一张手写的便条。 如果让您给您的继任者菲利普·格兰迪 写一张这样的便条, 您会写些什么呢?
AG: Well, I don't think I would write any message. You know, one of the terrible things when one leaves an office is to try to become the backseat driver, always telling the new one what to do. So that, I will not do. If I had to say something to him, it would be, "Be yourself, and do your best."
安东尼奥:我想我什么都不会写。 你知道,离任者总想对继任者的工作指手画脚, 告诉他们应该怎样做。 这不太好。 所以我不会这么做。 如果让我对他说点儿什么, 我会告诉他:“坚守本心,全力以赴。”
BG: Commissioner, thank you for the job you do. Thank you for coming to TED.
布鲁诺:专员,感谢您所做的工作。 感谢您来TED演讲。
(Applause)
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