The writer George Eliot cautioned us that, among all forms of mistake, prophesy is the most gratuitous. The person that we would all acknowledge as her 20th-century counterpart, Yogi Berra, agreed. He said, "It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future."
Spisateljica Džordž Eliot upozorila nas je, da je među svim greškama, predviđanje najbespotrebnija. Osoba za koju bismo se složili da je njen istomišljenik iz XX veka, Jogi Bera, složio se. On kaže: "Teško je predviđati, naročito u vezi sa budućnošću."
I'm going to ignore their cautions and make one very specific forecast. In the world that we are creating very quickly, we're going to see more and more things that look like science fiction, and fewer and fewer things that look like jobs. Our cars are very quickly going to start driving themselves, which means we're going to need fewer truck drivers. We're going to hook Siri up to Watson and use that to automate a lot of the work that's currently done by customer service reps and troubleshooters and diagnosers, and we're already taking R2D2, painting him orange, and putting him to work carrying shelves around warehouses, which means we need a lot fewer people to be walking up and down those aisles.
Ja ću ignorisati njihova upozorenja i predvideću nešto veoma specifično. U svetu gde stvaramo novine veoma brzo, videćemo sve više i više stvari kao iz naučne fantastike, a sve manje stvari koje izgledaju kao posao. Naša kola će uskoro početi sama da se voze, što znači da će nam trebati sve manje vozača kamiona. Povezaćemo Siri i Votsona i koristitćemo ih za automatizaciju posla koji trenutno obavlja služba za rad sa strankama i kontrolori i predviđači, a već upotrebljavamo robota "Artu-Ditu" (iz "Ratova zvezda"), narandžaste boje, kog uključujemo u poslove nošenja delova u skladištima, što znači da nam je potrebno manje ljudi da šeta ovim prolazima.
Now, for about 200 years, people have been saying exactly what I'm telling you -- the age of technological unemployment is at hand — starting with the Luddites smashing looms in Britain just about two centuries ago, and they have been wrong. Our economies in the developed world have coasted along on something pretty close to full employment.
Već oko 200 godina, ljudi govore upravo ovo što pričam, doba tehnološke nezaposlenosti je nadomak ruke - počevši od Ladovog pokreta uništavanja mašina u Velikoj Britaniji od pre dva veka, što se pokazalo pogrešnim. Ekonomija našeg razvijenog sveta razvijala se na skoro potpunoj zaposlenosti.
Which brings up a critical question: Why is this time different, if it really is? The reason it's different is that, just in the past few years, our machines have started demonstrating skills they have never, ever had before: understanding, speaking, hearing, seeing, answering, writing, and they're still acquiring new skills. For example, mobile humanoid robots are still incredibly primitive, but the research arm of the Defense Department just launched a competition to have them do things like this, and if the track record is any guide, this competition is going to be successful. So when I look around, I think the day is not too far off at all when we're going to have androids doing a lot of the work that we are doing right now. And we're creating a world where there is going to be more and more technology and fewer and fewer jobs. It's a world that Erik Brynjolfsson and I are calling "the new machine age."
Što nas dovodi do ključnog pitanja: zašto je ovo vreme drugačije, ako zaista jeste? Različito je jedino zato što su u proteklih nekoliko godina, mašine demonstrirale veštine koje ranije nisu imale, a to su: razumevanje, pričanje, slušanje, gledanje, odgovaranje, pisanje, a još uvek stiču i nove veštine. Na primer, mobilni humaidni roboti još uvek su veoma nerazvijeni, ali odeljenje za istraživanja Ministarstva odbrane upravo je pokrenulo nadmetanje za robote koji bi radili ovakve stvari i ako je ostvaren učinak nekakav pokazatelj, ovo takmičenje biće uspešno. Kada pogledam oko sebe, mislim da taj dan kada ćemo imati androide nije uopšte daleko, oni će obavljati mnoge poslove koje danas mi radimo. Stvaramo svet u kome će biti sve više tehnologije, a sve manje angažovanja ljudske radne snage. To je svet koji Erik Brinjolfson i ja zovemo "novo mašinsko doba".
The thing to keep in mind is that this is absolutely great news. This is the best economic news on the planet these days. Not that there's a lot of competition, right? This is the best economic news we have these days for two main reasons. The first is, technological progress is what allows us to continue this amazing recent run that we're on where output goes up over time, while at the same time, prices go down, and volume and quality just continue to explode. Now, some people look at this and talk about shallow materialism, but that's absolutely the wrong way to look at it. This is abundance, which is exactly what we want our economic system to provide. The second reason that the new machine age is such great news is that, once the androids start doing jobs, we don't have to do them anymore, and we get freed up from drudgery and toil.
Ono što treba imati na umu jeste da je to odlična vest. To je najbolja vest na svetu za našu privredu. Nije da postoji mnogo konkurencije, zar ne? Ovo je najbolja vest u privredi ovih dana iz dva glavna razloga. Prvi je, tehnološki napredak nam dozvoljava da nastavimo ovaj neverovatni napredak, gde proizvodnja sve više raste vremenom, dok u isto vreme, cene padaju, a količina i kvalitet samo nastavljaju s ekspanzijom. Neki ljudi gledaju ovo i govore o površnom materijalizmu, ali to je pogrešan način gledanja. Ovo je izobilje, koje je tačno ono što želimo da naša privreda obezbeđuje. Drugi razlog zašto je novo mašinsko doba tako dobra vest, jeste i to što kada jednom androidi počnu s obavljanjem poslova, mi nećemo morati da ih radimo, bićemo oslobođeni od napora i truda.
Now, when I talk about this with my friends in Cambridge and Silicon Valley, they say, "Fantastic. No more drudgery, no more toil. This gives us the chance to imagine an entirely different kind of society, a society where the creators and the discoverers and the performers and the innovators come together with their patrons and their financiers to talk about issues, entertain, enlighten, provoke each other." It's a society really, that looks a lot like the TED Conference. And there's actually a huge amount of truth here. We are seeing an amazing flourishing taking place. In a world where it is just about as easy to generate an object as it is to print a document, we have amazing new possibilities. The people who used to be craftsmen and hobbyists are now makers, and they're responsible for massive amounts of innovation. And artists who were formerly constrained can now do things that were never, ever possible for them before. So this is a time of great flourishing, and the more I look around, the more convinced I become that this quote, from the physicist Freeman Dyson, is not hyperbole at all. This is just a plain statement of the facts. We are in the middle of an astonishing period.
Kada o ovome pričam s prijateljima u Kembridžu i Silicijumskoj dolini, kažu: "Fantastično. Nema više napora, nema više truda. Ovo nam pruža šansu da maštamo o potpuno drugom društvu, društvu gde kreativci i pronalazači, kao i izvođači i inovatori mogu da sednu sa svojim sponzorima ili finansijerima, i da raspravljaju o raznim stvarima, zabavljaju se, obrazuju ili izazivaju jedni druge." To je zapravo društvo koje liči na TED konferenciju. Ovde zaista leži dosta istine. Gledamo kako nastaje neverovatan napredak. U svetu gde je jednako jdnostavno stvoriti objekat kao što je jednostavno odštampati dokument, imamo neverovatne mogućnosti. Zanatlije i ljubitelji hobija su sada stvaraoci, odgovorni za mnoštvo inovacija. A umetnici koji su ranije bili ograničeni sada mogu raditi stvari koje nikad nisu bile moguće za njih ranije. Tako da je u pitanju vreme velikog procvata i što više posmatram, uvereniji sam da sledeći citat fizičara Frimena Dajsona, nije više preterivanje. To je samo obična izjava činjenica. Nalazimo se usred zapanjujućeg perioda.
["Technology is a gift of God. After the gift of life it is perhaps the greatest of God's gifts. It is the mother of civilizations, of arts and of sciences." — Freeman Dyson]
["Tehnologija je poklon od boga. Nakon života, ovo je možda najveći božiji dar. Ona je rodila civilizacije, umetnosti i nauke" - Frimen Dajson]
Which brings up another great question: What could possibly go wrong in this new machine age? Right? Great, hang up, flourish, go home. We're going to face two really thorny sets of challenges as we head deeper into the future that we're creating.
Što nas dovodi do sledećeg pitanja: šta bi moglo poći naopako u novoj mašinskoj eri? Zar ne? Super, spusti slušalicu, napreduj, idi kući. Suočićemo se s dve bodljikave skupine izazova, što se više udubljujemo u budućnost koju stvaramo.
The first are economic, and they're really nicely summarized in an apocryphal story about a back-and-forth between Henry Ford II and Walter Reuther, who was the head of the auto workers union. They were touring one of the new modern factories, and Ford playfully turns to Reuther and says, "Hey Walter, how are you going to get these robots to pay union dues?" And Reuther shoots back, "Hey Henry, how are you going to get them to buy cars?"
Prvo je privreda, vrlo je lepo sumirana u sumnjivoj priči o razgovoru između Henrija Forda II i Valtera Rutera, koji je bio predsedavajući udruženja auto majstora. Oni su obilazili jednu od novih modernih fabrika i Ford se veselo okrenuo Ruteru i pitao: "Hej Voltere, kako ćeš naterati te robote da plaćaju sindikalne članarine?" A Ruter je uzviknuo zauzvrat: "Henri, kako ćeš ih naterati da kupuju automobile?"
Reuther's problem in that anecdote is that it is tough to offer your labor to an economy that's full of machines, and we see this very clearly in the statistics. If you look over the past couple decades at the returns to capital -- in other words, corporate profits -- we see them going up, and we see that they're now at an all-time high. If we look at the returns to labor, in other words total wages paid out in the economy, we see them at an all-time low and heading very quickly in the opposite direction.
Ruterov problem u anegdoti je taj što je teško nuditi vaš rad privredi koja je puna mašina, a što možemo videti iz statistika. Ako pogeldate, prethodnih par decenija, zarada - drugim rečima, korporativni profit - raste, a vidimo da je trenutno najviša u istoriji. Ukoliko pogledamo zaradu za rad, drugim rečima ukupne zarade isplaćene u privredi, najniže su do sada, a ubrzano počinju da se kreću u suprotnom pravcu.
So this is clearly bad news for Reuther. It looks like it might be great news for Ford, but it's actually not. If you want to sell huge volumes of somewhat expensive goods to people, you really want a large, stable, prosperous middle class. We have had one of those in America for just about the entire postwar period. But the middle class is clearly under huge threat right now. We all know a lot of the statistics, but just to repeat one of them, median income in America has actually gone down over the past 15 years, and we're in danger of getting trapped in some vicious cycle where inequality and polarization continue to go up over time.
Ovo je očito loša vest za Rutera. Izgleda da bi mogla biti dobra vest za Forda, ali zapravo nije. Ako želite prodati velike količine skupog dobra kupcima, trebaće vam brojna, stabilna, srednja klasa. To smo imali u Americi u posleratnom periodu. No, srednja klasa je očigledno vrlo ugrožena danas. Svi znamo mnogo staistika, ali čisto da ponovim jednu od njih, srednji prihodi u Americi su u stvari opali u zadnjih 15 godina i možemo upasti u zamku nekog začaranog kruga, gde nejednakost i polarizacija nastavljaju da se produbljuju vremenom.
The societal challenges that come along with that kind of inequality deserve some attention. There are a set of societal challenges that I'm actually not that worried about, and they're captured by images like this. This is not the kind of societal problem that I am concerned about. There is no shortage of dystopian visions about what happens when our machines become self-aware, and they decide to rise up and coordinate attacks against us. I'm going to start worrying about those the day my computer becomes aware of my printer.
Društveni izazovi koji dolaze sa ovakvim nejednakostima zaslužuju pažnju. Javlja se niz društvenih izazova oko kojih nisam toliko zabrinut, a oni su prikazani u ovakvim prizorima. Ja nisam zabrinut za ovu vrstu društvenih problema. Ne postoji nestašica distopijske vizije, u vezi s tim šta se dešava kad mašine postanu svesne, pa odluče da ustanu da se pobune protiv nas. O ovim stvarima počeću da brinem dana kad moj kompjuter postane svestan štampača.
(Laughter) (Applause)
(Smeh) (Aplauz)
So this is not the set of challenges we really need to worry about. To tell you the kinds of societal challenges that are going to come up in the new machine age, I want to tell a story about two stereotypical American workers. And to make them really stereotypical, let's make them both white guys. And the first one is a college-educated professional, creative type, manager, engineer, doctor, lawyer, that kind of worker. We're going to call him "Ted." He's at the top of the American middle class. His counterpart is not college-educated and works as a laborer, works as a clerk, does low-level white collar or blue collar work in the economy. We're going to call that guy "Bill."
Dakle, to nije problem koji zabrinjava. Da bih vam rekao kakvi društveni problemi dolaze sa novom mašinskom erom, želim prvo da ispričam jednu priču o dva tipična američka radnika. A da bih mogao da ih prikažem kao stereotipe, recimo da su u pitanju dva belca. Prvi je završio fakultet, profesionalac, kreativan tip, menadžer, inženjer, doktor, advokat, ta vrsta radnika. Zvaćemo ga "Ted." On je sa vrha američke srednje klase. Njegov kolega nije fakultetski obrazovan i radi kao običan radnik, službenik, radi kao niži administrativac ili radi u privredi. Zvaćemo ga "Bil."
And if you go back about 50 years, Bill and Ted were leading remarkably similar lives. For example, in 1960 they were both very likely to have full-time jobs, working at least 40 hours a week. But as the social researcher Charles Murray has documented, as we started to automate the economy, and 1960 is just about when computers started to be used by businesses, as we started to progressively inject technology and automation and digital stuff into the economy, the fortunes of Bill and Ted diverged a lot. Over this time frame, Ted has continued to hold a full-time job. Bill hasn't. In many cases, Bill has left the economy entirely, and Ted very rarely has. Over time, Ted's marriage has stayed quite happy. Bill's hasn't. And Ted's kids have grown up in a two-parent home, while Bill's absolutely have not over time. Other ways that Bill is dropping out of society? He's decreased his voting in presidential elections, and he's started to go to prison a lot more often. So I cannot tell a happy story about these social trends, and they don't show any signs of reversing themselves. They're also true no matter which ethnic group or demographic group we look at, and they're actually getting so severe that they're in danger of overwhelming even the amazing progress we made with the Civil Rights Movement.
Ako se vratite za oko 50 godina unazad, Bil i Ted su živeli dosta sličnim životom. Na primer, 1960-ih, obojica su vrlo verovatno imali stalan posao, radeći najmanje 40 sati nedeljno. Ali kao što je istraživač sociolog Čarls Mari zabeležio, što smo više automatizovali privredu, a 1960-te su godine kad kompjuteri ulaze u poslovanje, kako smo počeli da ubrzano implementiramo tehnologiju i automatizaciju i digitalni svet u privredu, sudbine Bila i Teda su se razišle. Tokom ovog vremenskog okvira, Ted i dalje ima stalan posao. Bil nema. U mnogo slučajeva, Bil je potpuno napustio privredu, dok je to Ted retko činio. Kroz vreme, Todov brak ostao je prilično srećan, Bilov nije. Tedova deca su odrasla u domu sa oba svoja roditelja, dok Bilova deca nisu. Još neki dokaz da Bil ispada iz društva? Sve ređe izlazi na izbore i sve češće ide u zatvor. Nemam priču sa srećnim krajem u vezi sa ovim društvenim tendencijama, a takođe ni one ne pokazuju suprotne težnje. Tačne su bez obzira na etničku pripadnost ili demografsku grupu koju gledamo, i postaju tako ozbiljne da postoji teškoća u njihovom prevazilaženju čak i uz napredak koji smo učinili sa pokretom za Građanska prava.
And what my friends in Silicon Valley and Cambridge are overlooking is that they're Ted. They're living these amazingly busy, productive lives, and they've got all the benefits to show from that, while Bill is leading a very different life. They're actually both proof of how right Voltaire was when he talked about the benefits of work, and the fact that it saves us from not one but three great evils.
I ono što moji prijatelji iz Silicijumske doline i Kembridža previđaju, jeste da su oni Ted. Žive te svoje potpuno okupirane, produktivne živote, i imaju sve predosti toga, dok Bil vodi drugačiji život. Oni su zapravo dokaz da je Volter bio u pravu kada je pričao o prednostima posla, i činjenici da nas on spašava ne jednog, već od tri zla.
["Work saves a man from three great evils: boredom, vice and need." — Voltaire]
["Posao spašava čoveka od tri velika zla: dosade, poroka i potreba." - Volter]
So with these challenges, what do we do about them?
Šta ćemo uraditi sa ovim izazovima?
The economic playbook is surprisingly clear, surprisingly straightforward, in the short term especially. The robots are not going to take all of our jobs in the next year or two, so the classic Econ 101 playbook is going to work just fine: Encourage entrepreneurship, double down on infrastructure, and make sure we're turning out people from our educational system with the appropriate skills.
Privredna pravila su iznenađujuće jasna, i iznenađujuće jednostavna, posebno u kraćem roku. Roboti neće preuzeti sve naše poslove u narednih godinu-dve, te će klasični udžbenik osnova ekonomije funkcionisati sasvim dobro: podsticati preduzetništvo, udvostručiti infrastrukturu, i postarati se da proizvodimo ljude koji su adekvatno osposobljeni obrazovanjem.
But over the longer term, if we are moving into an economy that's heavy on technology and light on labor, and we are, then we have to consider some more radical interventions, for example, something like a guaranteed minimum income. Now, that's probably making some folk in this room uncomfortable, because that idea is associated with the extreme left wing and with fairly radical schemes for redistributing wealth. I did a little bit of research on this notion, and it might calm some folk down to know that the idea of a net guaranteed minimum income has been championed by those frothing-at-the-mouth socialists Friedrich Hayek, Richard Nixon and Milton Friedman. And if you find yourself worried that something like a guaranteed income is going to stifle our drive to succeed and make us kind of complacent, you might be interested to know that social mobility, one of the things we really pride ourselves on in the United States, is now lower than it is in the northern European countries that have these very generous social safety nets. So the economic playbook is actually pretty straightforward.
Ali na duge staze, ako uđemo u privredu, koja ima mnogo tehnologije i malo ljudskog rada, a to je neminovno, onda moramo razmotriti i neke radikalnije poteze, na primer, nešto kao garantovani minimalac. Nekima će ovo biti neprijatno, zbog toga što je sama ova ideja povezana sa ekstremnom levicom i prilično drastičnim planom za preraspodelu dobara. Malo sam istraživao, i može nas umiriti to što znamo da je ideja o neto garantovanom minimalnom prihodu, povezana sa zapenjenim socijalistima, Fridrihom Hajekom, Ričardom Niksonom, Miltonom Fridmenom. I ako se brinete da će nešto kao garantovani minalni prihod ugušiti težnju za uspehom, i učiniti nas na neki način zadovoljnim, možda ćete biti zainteresovani za činjenicu da je društvena pokretljivost, jedna od stvari kojom se zaista ponosimo u SAD-u, sada manja nego u zemljama severne Evrope koje imaju vrlo velikodušnu socijalnu zaštitu. Privredna pravila su prilično jednostavna.
The societal one is a lot more challenging. I don't know what the playbook is for getting Bill to engage and stay engaged throughout life.
Društvena su mnogo izazovnija. Ne znam šta su pravila za omogućavanje Bilu da se uključi i ostane takav kroz život.
I do know that education is a huge part of it. I witnessed this firsthand. I was a Montessori kid for the first few years of my education, and what that education taught me is that the world is an interesting place and my job is to go explore it. The school stopped in third grade, so then I entered the public school system, and it felt like I had been sent to the Gulag. With the benefit of hindsight, I now know the job was to prepare me for life as a clerk or a laborer, but at the time it felt like the job was to kind of bore me into some submission with what was going on around me. We have to do better than this. We cannot keep turning out Bills.
Ali znam da obrazovanje igra veliku ulogu. Svedok sam toga iz prve ruke. Bio sam u Montesori programu prvih godina svog obrazovanja, i ono čemu me je to obrazovanje naučilo, je da je svet interesantno mesto, a moja svrha je da ga istražim. Takva škola prestaje u trećem razredu, kada upisujem državnu školu, a osećam se kao da sam poslat u Gulag. Sa sadašnjim iskustvom, znam da je to trebalo da me pripremi za život radnika, ali sam tad mislio da će me ubiti od dosade i pokoriti. Moramo uraditi nešto bolje. Ne možemo da stvaramo samo radnike.
So we see some green shoots that things are getting better. We see technology deeply impacting education and engaging people, from our youngest learners up to our oldest ones. We see very prominent business voices telling us we need to rethink some of the things that we've been holding dear for a while. And we see very serious and sustained and data-driven efforts to understand how to intervene in some of the most troubled communities that we have.
A vidimo neke izdanke ka boljitku. Tehnologija duboko utiče na obrazovanje, a koriste je ljudi od najmlađih učeničkih dana do najstarijih. Vidimo da ugledni poslovni ljudi govore da treba ponovo razmislimo o stvarima koje volimo već dugo. I vidimo vrlo ozbiljne i konstantne napore podržane podacima, za razumevanje načina intervenisanja u nekim najkritičnijim zajednicama.
So the green shoots are out there. I don't want to pretend for a minute that what we have is going to be enough. We're facing very tough challenges. To give just one example, there are about five million Americans who have been unemployed for at least six months. We're not going to fix things for them by sending them back to Montessori. And my biggest worry is that we're creating a world where we're going to have glittering technologies embedded in kind of a shabby society and supported by an economy that generates inequality instead of opportunity.
Dakle, počeci postoje. Ja ne želim ni malo da se pretvaram da je ovo što imamo dovoljno. Suočeni smo s teškim izazovima. Da dam samo jedan primer, postoji oko pet miliona Amerikanaca koji su nezaposleni bar šest meseci. Nećemo popraviti njihovu situaciju tako što ćemo ih poslati nazad u Montesori. A moja najveća briga je to što mi stvaramo svet gde ćemo imati sjajne tehnologije ugrađene u zastarelo društvo koje podržava privreda koja protežira nejednakost umesto prilika.
But I actually don't think that's what we're going to do. I think we're going to do something a lot better for one very straightforward reason: The facts are getting out there. The realities of this new machine age and the change in the economy are becoming more widely known. If we wanted to accelerate that process, we could do things like have our best economists and policymakers play "Jeopardy!" against Watson. We could send Congress on an autonomous car road trip. And if we do enough of these kinds of things, the awareness is going to sink in that things are going to be different. And then we're off to the races, because I don't believe for a second that we have forgotten how to solve tough challenges or that we have become too apathetic or hard-hearted to even try.
Ali svakako da ne mislim da je to ono što ćemo i učiniti. Mislim da ćemo uraditi nešto mnogo bolje, iz jednog jednostavnog razloga: činjenice postaju poznate. Realnost ovog modernog doba mašina i promene u privredi postaju široko prepoznate. Ako želimo da ubrzamo taj proces, možemo pustiti najbolje ekonomiste i zakonodavce da igraju kviz protiv Votsona. Možemo poslati Kongres na putovanje kolima bez vozača. Ako uradimo dovoljno ovakvih stvari, razviće se svest da će stvari biti drugačije. I onda idemo na takmičenje, jer ne verujem ni trenutka da smo zaboravili da rešavamo teške izazove ili da smo postali apatični ili tvrdog srca da bismo i pokušali.
I started my talk with quotes from wordsmiths who were separated by an ocean and a century. Let me end it with words from politicians who were similarly distant.
Počeo sam svoj govor rečima mudraca, koje su razdvajali okean i vek. Završiću rečima političara koji su bili slično udaljeni.
Winston Churchill came to my home of MIT in 1949, and he said, "If we are to bring the broad masses of the people in every land to the table of abundance, it can only be by the tireless improvement of all of our means of technical production."
Vinston Čerčil je došao na Tehnološki Institut Masačusetsa 1949., i rekao: "Da treba da dovedemo izobilje širokim narodnim masama svih zemalja, to možemo učiniti samo konstantnim napretkom naše tehničke proizvodnje."
Abraham Lincoln realized there was one other ingredient. He said, "I am a firm believer in the people. If given the truth, they can be depended upon to meet any national crisis. The great point is to give them the plain facts."
Abraham Linkoln je shvatio da postoji jedan drugi sastojak. Rekao je: "Ja čvrsto verujem u ljude. Ako im se da istina, možemo se osloniti da će prevazići svaku nacionalnu krizu. Suština je dati im činjenice."
So the optimistic note, great point that I want to leave you with is that the plain facts of the machine age are becoming clear, and I have every confidence that we're going to use them to chart a good course into the challenging, abundant economy that we're creating.
Optimistička poruka sa kojom bih vas ostavio je to da su činjenice o mašinskom vremenu jasne, a ja verujem da će nam koristiti u odabiru dobrog puta u izazovnu i bogatu privredu koju stvaramo.
Thank you very much.
Hvala vam na pažnji.
(Applause)
(Aplauz)