As it turns out, when tens of millions of people are unemployed or underemployed, there's a fair amount of interest in what technology might be doing to the labor force. And as I look at the conversation, it strikes me that it's focused on exactly the right topic, and at the same time, it's missing the point entirely. The topic that it's focused on, the question is whether or not all these digital technologies are affecting people's ability to earn a living, or, to say it a little bit different way, are the droids taking our jobs? And there's some evidence that they are.
Izgleda da, kada je desetine miliona ljudi nezaposleno ili nedovoljno zaposleno, ima puno interesovanja za ono što tehnologija možda čini za radnu snagu. I kad pogledam taj razgovor, upada mi u oči da je fokusiran na pravu temu, i u isto vreme, promašuje suštinu u potpunosti. Tema na koju je fokusiran, pitanje da li ili ne sve ove digitalne tehnologije utiču na sposobnost ljudi da zarade za život ili da kažemo to na malo drugačiji način da li nam androidi uzimaju poslove? I evo nekih dokaza da to rade.
The Great Recession ended when American GDP resumed its kind of slow, steady march upward, and some other economic indicators also started to rebound, and they got kind of healthy kind of quickly. Corporate profits are quite high; in fact, if you include bank profits, they're higher than they've ever been. And business investment in gear -- in equipment and hardware and software -- is at an all-time high. So the businesses are getting out their checkbooks. What they're not really doing is hiring. So this red line is the employment-to-population ratio, in other words, the percentage of working-age people in America who have work. And we see that it cratered during the Great Recession, and it hasn't started to bounce back at all.
Velika recesija se završila kad je američki bruto domaći proizvod povratio svoj spori, postojani hod naviše i neki drugi ekonomski pokazatelji su takođe počeli da skaču i brzo su se oporavili. Korporativni profiti su prilično visoki. U stvari, ako uključite profite banaka, oni su veći nego ikada. I poslovno ulaganje u pribor, u opremu i hardver i softver je najveće ikada. Tako da firme vade svoje čekovne knjižice. A to ne rade da bi zapošljavale. Ova crvena linija je odnos zaposlenosti i populacije, drugim rečima, procenat radno sposobnih ljudi u Americi koji imaju posao. I vidimo da se sunovratila tokom Velike recesije, i nije uopšte počela da se ponovo podiže. Ali priča nije samo priča o recesiji.
But the story is not just a recession story. The decade that we've just been through had relatively anemic job growth all throughout, especially when we compare it to other decades, and the 2000s are the only time we have on record where there were fewer people working at the end of the decade than at the beginning. This is not what you want to see. When you graph the number of potential employees versus the number of jobs in the country, you see the gap gets bigger and bigger over time, and then, during the Great Recession, it opened up in a huge way.
Decenija koju smo upravo prošli imala je relativno anemičan porast posla za sve vreme njenog trajanja, naročito kada je uporedimo sa drugim decenijama i 2000-te su jedini period kada smo zabeležili da manje ljudi radi na kraju decenije nego na početku. To nije nešto što želite da vidite. Kada crtate grafikon broja potencijalnih zaposlenih suprotstavljen broju poslova u zemlji, vidite da jaz postaje sve veći i veći tokom vremena i onda, u toku Velike recesije, se mnogo proširio.
I did some quick calculations. I took the last 20 years of GDP growth and the last 20 years of labor-productivity growth and used those in a fairly straightforward way to try to project how many jobs the economy was going to need to keep growing, and this is the line that I came up with. Is that good or bad? This is the government's projection for the working-age population going forward. So if these predictions are accurate, that gap is not going to close.
Uradio sam neke brze proračune. Uzeo sam rast bruto domaćeg proizvoda u zadnjih 20 godina i rast radne produktivnosti u zadnjih 20 godina i iskoristio sam ih na prilično uobičajen način da pokušam da predvidim koliko će poslova ekonomiji biti potrebno na nastavi rast, i ovo je linija koju sam dobio. Je li to dobro ili loše? Ovo je predviđanje vlade za radno sposobno stanovništvo unapred. Ako su ova predviđanja tačna, taj jaz se neće zatvoriti. Problem je taj što ja ne mislim da su ova predviđanja tačna.
The problem is, I don't think these projections are accurate. In particular, I think my projection is way too optimistic, because when I did it, I was assuming that the future was kind of going to look like the past, with labor productivity growth, and that's actually not what I believe. Because when I look around, I think that we ain't seen nothing yet when it comes to technology's impact on the labor force.
U stvari, mislim da je moje predviđanje suviše optimistično jer kad sam ga radio, pretpostavljao sam da će budućnost izgledati otprilike isto kao i prošlost sa rastom radne produktivnosti, a to u stvari nije ono u šta verujem, jer kad se osvrnem, mislim da još ništa nismo videli kad je u pitanju uticaj tehnologije na radnu snagu. Samo u poslednjih nekoliko godina, videli smo digitalne alate
Just in the past couple years, we've seen digital tools display skills and abilities that they never, ever had before, and that kind of eat deeply into what we human beings do for a living. Let me give you a couple examples.
koji pokazuju veštine i mogućnosti koje nikad ranije nisu imali, i to se nekako uvlači duboko u ono što mi kao ljudska bića radimo da bi se izdržavali. Daću vam par primera.
Throughout all of history, if you wanted something translated from one language into another, you had to involve a human being. Now we have multi-language, instantaneous, automatic translation services available for free via many of our devices, all the way down to smartphones. And if any of us have used these, we know that they're not perfect, but they're decent.
Tokom cele istorije, ako ste želeli da nešto prevedete sa jednog jezika na drugi, morali ste da uključite ljudsko biće u to. Sada imamo multijezičke, trenutne, automatske prevodilačke servise dostupne besplatno preko mnogih naših uređaja sve do smart telefona. I ako smo ih nekad koristili, znamo da nisu savršeni, ali su pristojni.
Throughout all of history, if you wanted something written, a report or an article, you had to involve a person. Not anymore. This is an article that appeared in Forbes online a while back, about Apple's earnings. It was written by an algorithm. And it's not decent -- it's perfect.
Kroz celu istoriju, ako ste hteli nešto napisano, izveštaj ili članak, morali ste da uključite osobu. Ne više. Ovo je članak koji se pojavio u Forbsu na internetu pre nekog vremena, o Eplovim zaradama. Napisao ga je algoritam. I nije pristojan. Savršen je.
A lot of people look at this and they say, "OK, but those are very specific, narrow tasks, and most knowledge workers are actually generalists. And what they do is sit on top of a very large body of expertise and knowledge and they use that to react on the fly to kind of unpredictable demands, and that's very, very hard to automate." One of the most impressive knowledge workers in recent memory is a guy named Ken Jennings. He won the quiz show "Jeopardy!" 74 times in a row. Took home three million dollars. That's Ken on the right, getting beat three-to-one by Watson, the Jeopardy-playing supercomputer from IBM. So when we look at what technology can do to general knowledge workers, I start to think there might not be something so special about this idea of a generalist, particularly when we start doing things like hooking Siri up to Watson, and having technologies that can understand what we're saying and repeat speech back to us.
Mnogi vide ovo i kažu: "Okej, ali to su vrlo specifični, uski zadaci, a većina radnika koji koriste znanje u stvari ima opšte znanje, i ono što oni rade je da koriste veoma veliki skup stručnosti i znanja i to koriste da reaguju u hodu na donekle nepredvidive zahteve, a to je jako, jako teško automatizovati." Jedan od najimpresivnijih radnika koji koriste znanje u svom radu u skorijem sećanju je čovek po imenu Ken Dženings. On je pobedio u kvizu "Džepardi!" 74 puta zaredom, odnevši kući tri miliona dolara. Ovo desno je Ken koga sa 3-1 pobeđuje Votson, superkompjuter za igranje "Džepardija" iz IBM-a. Tako da kad vidimo šta tehnologija može da uradi radnicima sa opštim znanjem, počinjem da mislim da možda nema ničeg posebnog u ovoj ideji o radnicima opšteg znanja, posebno kad počnemo da radimo stvari kao što su spajanje Siri i Votsona i dobijemo uređaje koji mogu da razumeju šta govorimo i ponove nam govor.
Now, Siri is far from perfect, and we can make fun of her flaws, but we should also keep in mind that if technologies like Siri and Watson improve along a Moore's law trajectory, which they will, in six years, they're not going to be two times better or four times better, they'll be 16 times better than they are right now. So I start to think a lot of knowledge work is going to be affected by this.
Siri je daleko od savršenog, i možemo da se smejemo njenim manama, ali takođe treba da imamo na umu da ako tehnologije kao Siri i Votson napreduju sledeći liniju Murovog zakona, što hoće, za šest godina, one neće biti dva puta bolje ili četiri puta bolje, nego će biti 16 puta bolje nego što su sada. Tako da mislim da će ovo da utiče na mnoge vrste rada koji koriste znanje.
And digital technologies are not just impacting knowledge work, they're starting to flex their muscles in the physical world as well. I had the chance a little while back to ride in the Google autonomous car, which is as cool as it sounds.
I digitalne tehnologije ne zadaju udarce samo radu u kome se koristi znanje. One počinju da stežu svoje mišiće i u fizičkom svetu. Imao sam priliku pre nekog vremena da se vozim u Guglovom autonomnom vozilu, koje je baš tako kul kao što zvuči.
(Laughter)
(Smeh)
And I will vouch that it handled the stop-and-go traffic on US 101 very smoothly. There are about three and a half million people who drive trucks for a living in the United States; I think some of them are going to be affected by this technology. And right now, humanoid robots are still incredibly primitive. They can't do very much. But they're getting better quite quickly and DARPA, which is the investment arm of the Defense Department, is trying to accelerate their trajectory.
I posvedočiću da se snašao u kreni-stani saobraćaju na putu U.S. 101 vrlo glatko. Ima oko tri i po miliona ljudi koji profesionalno voze kamione u Sjedinjenim Državama. Mislim da će na neke od njih uticati ova tehnologija. A sada, humanoidni roboti su još neverovatno primitivni. Oni ne mogu da urade mnogo. Ali napreduju prilično brzo i DARPA, koja je investiciona ruka Ministarstva odbrane, pokušava da ubrza njihovu putanju.
So, in short, yeah, the droids are coming for our jobs. In the short term, we can stimulate job growth by encouraging entrepreneurship and by investing in infrastructure, because the robots today still aren't very good at fixing bridges. But in the not-too-long-term, I think within the lifetimes of most of the people in this room, we're going to transition into an economy that is very productive, but that just doesn't need a lot of human workers. And managing that transition is going to be the greatest challenge that our society faces. Voltaire summarized why; he said, "Work saves us from three great evils: boredom, vice and need."
Ukratko, da, androidi će preuzeti naše poslove. Na kratak rok, možemo da podstičemo porast radnih mesta podsticanjem preduzetništva i ulaganjem u infrastrukturu, zato što roboti danas još nisu baš dobri u popravljanju mostova. Ali u ne tako dugom periodu, misaim u toku životnog veka većine ljudi u ovoj prostoriji, ući ćemo u tranziciju ka ekonomiji koja je vrlo produktivna ali kojoj ne treba mnogo ljudskih radnika, i rukovođenje tom tranzicijom će biti najveći izazov sa kojim se suočava naše društvo. Volter je sumirao zbog čega. On kaže: "Rad nas spašava od tri najveća zla: dosade, poroka i oskudice."
But despite this challenge -- personally, I'm still a huge digital optimist, and I am supremely confident that the digital technologies that we're developing now are going to take us into a Utopian future, not a dystopian future. And to explain why, I want to pose a ridiculously broad question. I want to ask: what have been the most important developments in human history?
Ali uprkos ovom izazovu, ja sam lično, još uvek veliki digitalni optimista i krajnje sam uveren da će nas digitalne tehnologije koje sada razvijamo odvesti u utopijsku budućnost, a ne distopijsku. I da bih objasnio zašto, želim da postavim jedno apsurdno široko pitanje. Želim da pitam koja su bila najvažnija dostignuća u ljudskoj istoriji?
Now, I want to share some of the answers that I've gotten in response to this question. It's a wonderful question to ask and start an endless debate about, because some people are going to bring up systems of philosophy in both the West and the East that have changed how a lot of people think about the world. And then other people will say, "No, actually, the big stories, the big developments are the founding of the world's major religions, which have changed civilizations and have changed and influenced how countless people are living their lives." And then some other folk will say, "Actually, what changes civilizations, what modifies them and what changes people's lives are empires, so the great developments in human history are stories of conquest and of war." And then some cheery soul usually always pipes up and says, "Hey, don't forget about plagues!"
Želim da podelim sa vama neke od odgovora koje sam dobio na ovo pitanje. To je divno pitanje u vezi s kojim se otvara beskonačna rasprava zato što će neki ljudi izneti filozofske sisteme Zapada i Istoka koji su promenili način na koji mnogi ljudi razmišljaju o svetu. I onda drugi ljudi će reći: "Ne, u stvari, velike priče, velika dostignuća su osnivanje najvećih svetskih religija, koje su promenile civilizacije i promenile i uticale na to kako nebrojeni ljudi žive svoje živote." I onda neki drugi će reći: "U stvari, ono što menja civilizacije, ono što ih modifikuje i što menja živote ljudi su carstva, tako da su velika dostignuća u ljudskoj istoriji priče o osvajanju i ratu." I onda neka vesela duša obično zapeva i kaže: "Hej, ne zaboravite kugu."
(Laughter)
(Smeh)
There are some optimistic answers to this question, so some people will bring up the Age of Exploration and the opening up of the world. Others will talk about intellectual achievements in disciplines like math that have helped us get a better handle on the world, and other folk will talk about periods when there was a deep flourishing of the arts and sciences. So this debate will go on and on. It's an endless debate and there's no conclusive, single answer to it. But if you're a geek like me, you say, "Well, what do the data say?" And you start to do things like graph things that we might be interested in -- the total worldwide population, for example, or some measure of social development or the state of advancement of a society. And you start to plot the data, because, by this approach, the big stories, the big developments in human history, are the ones that will bend these curves a lot.
Ima nekih optimističkih odgovora na ovo pitanje, pa će neki ljudi izneti razdoblje velikih geografskih otkrića i otvaranje sveta. Drugi će pričati o intelektualnim dostignućima u disciplinama kao što je matematika koja su nam pomogla da bolje upravljamo svetom, a drugi će pričati o periodima kada su cvetali umetnost i nauke. Tako će se ova rasprava nastaviti. To je beskrajna rasprava, i ne postoji nijedan zaključni, jedan odgovor na to. Ali ako ste štreber kao ja, reći ćete: "Šta kažu podaci?" I počinjete da radite stvari kao što su grafikoni koji bi nas možda interesovali, cela svetska populacija na primer ili neka mera društvenog razvoja ili stanje napretka društva, i počinjete da povezujete podatke, jer, po ovom pristupu velike priče, velika dostignuća u ljudskoj istoriji, su ona koja puno savijaju ove krive. Tako da kad uradite ovo i kad povežete podatke,
So when you do this and when you plot the data, you pretty quickly come to some weird conclusions. You conclude, actually, that none of these things have mattered very much.
vrlo brzo dođete do nekih čudnih zaključaka. Zaključite u stvari da ništa od ovih stvari nije bilo naročito važno.
(Laughter)
(Smeh)
They haven't done a darn thing to the curves. There has been one story, one development in human history that bent the curve, bent it just about 90 degrees, and it is a technology story.
One nisu nimalo uticale na krive. Bila je jedna priča, jedno dostignuće u ljudskoj istoriji koje je savilo krivu, savilo je otprilike za 90 stepeni i to je tehnološki događaj.
The steam engine and the other associated technologies of the Industrial Revolution changed the world and influenced human history so much, that in the words of the historian Ian Morris, "... they made mockery out of all that had come before." And they did this by infinitely multiplying the power of our muscles, overcoming the limitations of our muscles. Now, what we're in the middle of now is overcoming the limitations of our individual brains and infinitely multiplying our mental power. How can this not be as big a deal as overcoming the limitations of our muscles?
Parna mašina i druge povezane tehnologije industrijske revolucije su promenile svet i uticale na ljudsku istoriju toliko, da, po rečima istoričara Ijana Morisa, narugale su se svemu što je bilo pre. I ovo su uradile tako što su beskonačno umnožile snagu naših mišića, prevazilazeći ograničenja naših mišića. Ono usred čega se nalazimo sada je prevazilaženje ograničenja naših individualnih mozgova i beskonačno umnožavanje naše mentalne snage. Kako to može da ne bude isto tako važno kao i prevazilaženje ograničenja naših mišića?
So at the risk of repeating myself a little bit, when I look at what's going on with digital technology these days, we are not anywhere near through with this journey. And when I look at what is happening to our economies and our societies, my single conclusion is that we ain't seen nothing yet. The best days are really ahead.
Rizikujući da se malo ponavljam, kad pogledam šta se dešava sa digitalnom tehnologijom danas, nismo ni izbliza gotovi sa ovim putovanjem i kad pogledam šta se dešava sa našim ekonomijama i našim društvima, moj jedini zaključak je da nismo još ništa videli.
Let me give you a couple examples. Economies don't run on energy. They don't run on capital, they don't run on labor. Economies run on ideas. So the work of innovation, the work of coming up with new ideas, is some of the most powerful, most fundamental work that we can do in an economy. And this is kind of how we used to do innovation. We'd find a bunch of fairly similar-looking people ...
Najbolji dani su tek ispred nas. Da vam dam nekoliko primera. Ekonomije ne pokreće energija. Njih ne pokreće kapital, ne pokreće ih radna snaga. Ekonomije pokreću ideje. Tako da je rad na inovacijama, rad na pronalaženju novih ideja, jedan od najsnažnijih, jedan od najosnovnijih radova koje možemo da obavljamo u ekonomiji. Ovako smo radili na inovaciji. Našli bismo gomilu ljudi koji prilično liče jedni na druge
(Laughter)
- (Smeh) -
We'd take them out of elite institutions, we'd put them into other elite institutions and we'd wait for the innovation. Now --
izvadili bismo ih iz elitnih institucija, stavili bismo ih u druge elitne institucije i čekali na inovaciju. Sad - (Smeh) -
(Laughter)
kao belac koji je proveo celu svoju karijeru na MIT-u i Harvardu,
as a white guy who spent his whole career at MIT and Harvard, I've got no problem with this.
ja nemam problem s tim. (Smeh)
(Laughter)
But some other people do, and they've kind of crashed the party and loosened up the dress code of innovation.
Ali neki drugi ljudi imaju i oni su nekako upali na žurku i olabavili kodeks odevanja inovacije.
(Laughter)
(Smeh)
So here are the winners of a Topcoder programming challenge, and I assure you that nobody cares where these kids grew up, where they went to school, or what they look like. All anyone cares about is the quality of the work, the quality of the ideas.
Evo pobednika "Top koder" takmičenja u programiranju i uveravam vas da nikog nije briga gde su ovi klinci odrasli, gde su išli u školu ili kako izgledaju. Sve što ikoga zanima je kvalitet rada, kvalitet ideja.
And over and over again, we see this happening in the technology-facilitated world. The work of innovation is becoming more open, more inclusive, more transparent and more merit-based, and that's going to continue no matter what MIT and Harvard think of it, and I couldn't be happier about that development.
I opet iznova, vidimo da se ovo dešava u svetu koji je olakšan tehnologijom. Rad na inovacijama postaje otvoreniji, uključeniji, transparentniji i više zasnovan na zaslugama, i to će se nastaviti bez obzira šta MIT i Harvard misle o tome i ja ne mogu biti srećniji zbog tog razvoja.
I hear once in a while, "OK, I'll grant you that, but technology is still a tool for the rich world, and what's not happening, these digital tools are not improving the lives of people at the bottom of the pyramid." And I want to say to that very clearly: nonsense. The bottom of the pyramid is benefiting hugely from technology. The economist Robert Jensen did this wonderful study a while back where he watched, in great detail, what happened to the fishing villages of Kerala, India, when they got mobile phones for the very first time. And when you write for the Quarterly Journal of Economics, you have to use very dry and very circumspect language. But when I read his paper, I kind of feel Jensen is trying to scream at us and say, "Look, this was a big deal. Prices stabilized, so people could plan their economic lives. Waste was not reduced -- it was eliminated. And the lives of both the buyers and the sellers in these villages measurably improved."
Čujem ponekad: "Okej, priznajem to, ali tehnologija je još uvek alat za bogati svet i ono što se ne dešava, je da ovi digitalni alati ne poboljšavaju živote ljudi na dnu piramide." I ja želim da kažem vrlo jasno: gluposti. Dno piramide ima ogromne koristi od tehnologije. Ekonomista Robert Džensen je uradio ovu divnu studiju pre nekog vremena gde smo videli, jako detaljno, šta se desilo sa ribarskim selima u Kerali, u Indiji, kada su dobili mobilne telefone prvi put, i kada pišete za "Quarterly Journal of Economics", morate da koristite vrlo suv i oprezan jezik ali kada čitam njegov rad, imam utisak da Džensen pokušava da nam vikne, i kaže: vide, ovo je bila velika stvar. Cene su stabilizovane, tako da ljudi mogu da planiraju svoje živote. Otpad nije smanjen; eliminisan je. I životi i kupaca i prodavaca u ovim selima su se primetno poboljšali.
Now, what I don't think is that Jensen got extremely lucky and happened to land in the one set of villages where technology made things better. What happened instead is he very carefully documented what happens over and over again when technology comes for the first time to an environment and a community: the lives of people, the welfares of people, improve dramatically.
Ne mislim da je Džensen imao neverovatnu sreću i da se slučajno zaustavio u jednom skupu sela gde je tehnologija poboljšala stvari. Ono što se u stvari desilo je da je on brižljivo dokumentovao šta se dešava stalno iznova kada tehnologija stigne po prvi put u okolinu i u zajednicu. Životi ljudi, blagostanja ljudi, poboljšavaju se dramatično.
So as I look around at all the evidence and I think about the room that we have ahead of us, I become a huge digital optimist and I start to think that this wonderful statement from the physicist Freeman Dyson is actually not hyperbole. This is an accurate assessment of what's going on. Our technologies are great gifts, and we, right now, have the great good fortune to be living at a time when digital technology is flourishing, when it is broadening and deepening and becoming more profound all around the world.
Tako da kad se osvrnem na sve dokaze i pomislim na prostor koji imamo ispred nas, postajem veliki digitalni optimista, i počinjem da mislim da ova divna izjava fizičara Frimena Dajsona nije u stvari hiperbola. To je tačna procena onoga što se dešava. Naše tehnologije su veliki pokloni, i mi sada imamo veliku sreću da živimo u vreme kad digitalna tehnologija cveta, kada se širi i produbljuje i postaje temeljnija širom sveta.
So, yeah, the droids are taking our jobs, but focusing on that fact misses the point entirely. The point is that then we are freed up to do other things, and what we're going to do, I am very confident, what we're going to do is reduce poverty and drudgery and misery around the world. I'm very confident we're going to learn to live more lightly on the planet, and I am extremely confident that what we're going to do with our new digital tools is going to be so profound and so beneficial that it's going to make a mockery out of everything that came before. I'm going to leave the last word to a guy who had a front-row seat for digital progress, our old friend Ken Jennings. I'm with him; I'm going to echo his words: "I, for one, welcome our new computer overlords."
I da, androidi preuzimaju naše poslove, ali fokusiranjem na tu činjenicu, potpuno se propušta poenta. Poenta je da smo onda slobodni da radimo druge stvari, i ono što ćemo da uradimo, ubeđen sam, ono što ćemo da uradimo je da smanjimo siromaštvo i kulučenje i bedu širom sveta. Ubeđen sam da ćemo naučiti da živimo lakše na planeti, i krajnje sam ubeđen da će ono što ćemo uraditi sa našim novim digitalnim alatima biti toliko duboko i toliko korisno da će izvrgnuti ruglu sve što je bilo pre. Ostaviću zadnju reč čoveku koji je bio u prvim redovima digitalnog napretka, našem starom prijatelju Kenu Dženingsu. Slažem se s njim. Ponoviću njegove reči: "Poželeću, za početak, dobrodošlicu našim novim kompjuterskim gospodarima."
(Laughter)
(Smeh)
Thanks very much.
Hvala mnogo. (Aplauz)
(Applause)