I am British.
我係英國人
(Laughter)
(笑聲)
(Applause)
(掌聲)
Never before has the phrase "I am British" elicited so much pity.
「我係英國人」呢句說話
(Laughter)
從來未引起過咁多人同情
(笑聲)
I come from an island where many of us like to believe there's been a lot of continuity over the last thousand years. We tend to have historically imposed change on others but done much less of it ourselves.
我嚟自一個島國 好多人都相信 過去咁多年有好多嘢持續發生緊 歷史上,我哋傾向改變其他國家 但好少改變自己
So it came as an immense shock to me when I woke up on the morning of June 24 to discover that my country had voted to leave the European Union, my Prime Minister had resigned, and Scotland was considering a referendum that could bring to an end the very existence of the United Kingdom. So that was an immense shock for me, and it was an immense shock for many people, but it was also something that, over the following several days, created a complete political meltdown in my country. There were calls for a second referendum, almost as if, following a sports match, we could ask the opposition for a replay. Everybody was blaming everybody else. People blamed the Prime Minister for calling the referendum in the first place. They blamed the leader of the opposition for not fighting it hard enough. The young accused the old. The educated blamed the less well-educated. That complete meltdown was made even worse by the most tragic element of it: levels of xenophobia and racist abuse in the streets of Britain at a level that I have never seen before in my lifetime. People are now talking about whether my country is becoming a Little England, or, as one of my colleagues put it, whether we're about to become a 1950s nostalgia theme park floating in the Atlantic Ocean.
所以當我六月廿四號朝早起身 發現我個國家公投結果係脫歐之後 我好震驚 首相辭咗職 蘇格蘭講緊第二場公投 有可能令英國瓦解 所以成件事對於我嚟講都幾震撼 對於好多人嚟講都係 但呢件事幾日後 發展成我國家嘅一個政治危機 有呼聲話要舉行第二場公投 呢個情況就好似運動比賽完咗 我哋叫對手重新比賽一樣 每個人都指責其他人 人民指責首相 話佢當初做咩搞公投 啲人鬧在野黨黨魁唔夠努力爭取 後生指控老人家 受過教育責備無受過良好教育嘅 危機裏面最不幸嘅事 令成個危機更差 仇外同種族情緒充斥喺英國街頭 去到我前所未見嘅水平 啲人宜家講緊究竟我個國家 會變成小英格蘭 定係好似我同事話齋 變成一個浮沉喺大西洋嘅 五十年代懷舊公園
(Laughter)
(笑聲)
But my question is really, should we have the degree of shock that we've experienced since? Was it something that took place overnight? Or are there deeper structural factors that have led us to where we are today? So I want to take a step back and ask two very basic questions. First, what does Brexit represent, not just for my country, but for all of us around the world? And second, what can we do about it? How should we all respond?
但我嘅問題係 我哋應唔應該保持震驚嘅程度呢? 究竟脫歐係咪一夜之間出現呢? 定係有深層結構性因素 令我哋走到今日咁嘅地步? 我想退一步,問兩個好基本嘅問題 第一,英國脫歐代表咩? 唔只對我國家 佢對全世界有咩意思? 第二,我哋可以喺脫歐之後做啲乜? 我哋要點樣應對?
So first, what does Brexit represent? Hindsight is a wonderful thing. Brexit teaches us many things about our society and about societies around the world. It highlights in ways that we seem embarrassingly unaware of how divided our societies are. The vote split along lines of age, education, class and geography. Young people didn't turn out to vote in great numbers, but those that did wanted to remain. Older people really wanted to leave the European Union. Geographically, it was London and Scotland that most strongly committed to being part of the European Union, while in other parts of the country there was very strong ambivalence. Those divisions are things we really need to recognize and take seriously. But more profoundly, the vote teaches us something about the nature of politics today. Contemporary politics is no longer just about right and left. It's no longer just about tax and spend. It's about globalization. The fault line of contemporary politics is between those that embrace globalization and those that fear globalization.
返去第一條問題,英國脫歐代表咩? 事後孔明係一件有趣嘅事 脫歐教曉好多關於我哋社會嘅嘢 以至世界上其他社會嘅嘢 脫歐呢件事反映咗 我哋唔為意我哋社會有幾分裂 投票取向因年齡、教育程度、 階級同地理位置而唔同 年輕人唔踴躍投票 但出咗嚟投票嘅年輕人都投咗留歐 長者想脫歐 地理上,倫敦同蘇格蘭最想留歐 而其他地方就一半一半 取態唔同係我哋需要認真看待嘅嘢 但更重要既係 公投話咗畀我哋聽今日嘅政治形勢 當代政治唔再只係左翼同右翼 唔再只係交稅同開支 當代政治係講緊全球化 當代政治嘅分裂在於 鍾意同害怕全球化之間
(Applause)
(掌聲)
If we look at why those who wanted to leave -- we call them "Leavers," as opposed to "Remainers" -- we see two factors in the opinion polls that really mattered. The first was immigration, and the second sovereignty, and these represent a desire for people to take back control of their own lives and the feeling that they are unrepresented by politicians. But those ideas are ones that signify fear and alienation. They represent a retreat back towards nationalism and borders in ways that many of us would reject. What I want to suggest is the picture is more complicated than that, that liberal internationalists, like myself, and I firmly include myself in that picture, need to write ourselves back into the picture in order to understand how we've got to where we are today. When we look at the voting patterns across the United Kingdom, we can visibly see the divisions. The blue areas show Remain and the red areas Leave. When I looked at this, what personally struck me was the very little time in my life I've actually spent in many of the red areas. I suddenly realized that, looking at the top 50 areas in the UK that have the strongest Leave vote, I've spent a combined total of four days of my life in those areas. In some of those places, I didn't even know the names of the voting districts. It was a real shock to me, and it suggested that people like me who think of ourselves as inclusive, open and tolerant, perhaps don't know our own countries and societies nearly as well as we like to believe.
如果我哋睇下想脫歐嘅人 我哋叫佢哋做脫歐陣營 相反嘅係留歐陣營 我哋見到民意調查裏面 兩個好重要嘅因素 第一係移民,其次係國家主權 呢兩樣都代表咗 啲人想爭取返佢哋生活嘅自主權 代表佢哋覺得 參政嘅人唔代表佢哋 但呢啲脫歐諗法意味住恐懼同孤立 代表倒退到民族主義同邊界管制嘅年代 而我哋好多人都接受唔到 我想講成件事嘅更加複雜 自由國際主義者,好似我咁 需要將自己擺埋落成件事裏面 至可以明白 我哋點樣走到今時今日嘅地步 我哋睇返投票分佈 我哋見到分裂 藍色係留歐 紅色係脫歐 當我睇到呢幅圖 我覺得好震撼嘅係 我人生冇幾多時間喺紅色嘅地方生活 望住頭五十個最想脫歐嘅地方 我突然意識到 我只係花咗四日喺呢啲哋方生活 呢五十個地方當中 我甚至唔知道一啲選區嘅名 我對呢樣嘢好驚訝 呢樣嘢亦都反映 好似我以為自己包容、開放、忍耐嘅人 或者對於我哋嘅國家同社會 同自己願意去相信嘅事物一樣咁唔清楚
(Applause)
(掌聲)
And the challenge that comes from that is we need to find a new way to narrate globalization to those people, to recognize that for those people who have not necessarily been to university, who haven't necessarily grown up with the Internet, that don't get opportunities to travel, they may be unpersuaded by the narrative that we find persuasive in our often liberal bubbles.
而伴隨著嘅挑戰係我哋要搵新方法 向支持脫歐嘅人解釋全球化 同埋要明白呢啲人未必讀過大學 互聯網未必陪伴佢哋成長 佢哋未必去過旅行 佢哋可能未被我哋自由社會裏面 覺得有說服嘅嘢說服
(Applause)
(掌聲)
It means that we need to reach out more broadly and understand. In the Leave vote, a minority have peddled the politics of fear and hatred, creating lies and mistrust around, for instance, the idea that the vote on Europe could reduce the number of refugees and asylum-seekers coming to Europe, when the vote on leaving had nothing to do with immigration from outside the European Union. But for a significant majority of the Leave voters the concern was disillusionment with the political establishment. This was a protest vote for many, a sense that nobody represented them, that they couldn't find a political party that spoke for them, and so they rejected that political establishment.
即係話我哋要接觸同埋理解更多 喺呢次公投裏面 小數人激起政治恐懼同憎恨 導致謊言同唔信任四起 例如,留歐其實可以減少 嚟歐洲嘅難民同申請庇護嘅人數 但脫歐就一啲都做唔到 大多數脫歐支持者嘅憂慮 係對政治體制嘅幻滅 呢場公投其實係一場抗議 抗議政制裏面無人代表到佢哋 佢哋搵唔到為佢哋發聲嘅政黨 於是佢哋唔要宜家嘅政治體制
This replicates around Europe and much of the liberal democratic world. We see it with the rise in popularity of Donald Trump in the United States, with the growing nationalism of Viktor Orbán in Hungary, with the increase in popularity of Marine Le Pen in France. The specter of Brexit is in all of our societies.
呢種不滿政制嘅情況喺歐洲 同好多自由民主嘅國家重覆出現 同時,我哋見到特朗普喺美國冒起 匈牙利總理奧班嘅民族主義喺當地冒起 馬琳 · 勒龐喺法國嘅愈嚟愈受歡迎 成個社會裏面都有支持英國脫歐嘅人
So the question I think we need to ask is my second question, which is how should we collectively respond? For all of us who care about creating liberal, open, tolerant societies, we urgently need a new vision, a vision of a more tolerant, inclusive globalization, one that brings people with us rather than leaving them behind.
咁我哋就要問第二個問題 我哋要點樣一齊應對? 對於我哋關心營造 自由、開放、寛容社會嘅人嚟講 我哋急需要新願景 營造更包容同更寛容嘅全球化 令我哋走埋一齊,而唔係拋低邊個
That vision of globalization is one that has to start by a recognition of the positive benefits of globalization. The consensus amongst economists is that free trade, the movement of capital, the movement of people across borders benefit everyone on aggregate. The consensus amongst international relations scholars is that globalization brings interdependence, which brings cooperation and peace. But globalization also has redistributive effects. It creates winners and losers. To take the example of migration, we know that immigration is a net positive for the economy as a whole under almost all circumstances. But we also have to be very aware that there are redistributive consequences, that importantly, low-skilled immigration can lead to a reduction in wages for the most impoverished in our societies and also put pressure on house prices. That doesn't detract from the fact that it's positive, but it means more people have to share in those benefits and recognize them.
而當呢個全球化願景開始嘅時候 我哋需要認識全球化嘅好處 經濟學家都有共識 全球化有利自由貿易、資金同人嘅流動 有利所有走埋一齊嘅人 至於國際關係學者都同意 全球化令國與國更加倚靠對方 促成合作同和平 但全球化有重新分配嘅效果 佢創造贏家同輸家 用移民做例子 我哋知道移民喺大多數情況下 對經濟都係正面嘅 但我哋亦都要好小心 全球化帶嚟重新分配嘅結果 尤其低技術移民 可以令社會最貧困嘅一群工資下降 而且低技術移民會推高物業價格 但以上都削弱唔到全球化嘅正面影響 全球化只會令更多人受到正面影響
In 2002, the former Secretary-General of the United Nations, Kofi Annan, gave a speech at Yale University, and that speech was on the topic of inclusive globalization. That was the speech in which he coined that term. And he said, and I paraphrase, "The glass house of globalization has to be open to all if it is to remain secure. Bigotry and ignorance are the ugly face of exclusionary and antagonistic globalization."
2002 年,前聯合國秘書長安南 喺耶魯大學發表演講 演講圍繞包容性全球化 佢喺演講裏面創造咗 「包容性全球化」呢個詞 我轉述返佢講嘅嘢︰ 「全球化如果要保持穩當嘅話 佢嘅大門就要向所有人打開 偏執同無知係排外同對抗全球化」
That idea of inclusive globalization was briefly revived in 2008 in a conference on progressive governance involving many of the leaders of European countries. But amid austerity and the financial crisis of 2008, the concept disappeared almost without a trace. Globalization has been taken to support a neoliberal agenda. It's perceived to be part of an elite agenda rather than something that benefits all. And it needs to be reclaimed on a far more inclusive basis than it is today.
2008 年,好多歐洲國家領袖參與 一個有關漸進式管治嘅會議 包容性全球化嘅概念再次被提出 但 2008 年金融海嘯 同實行緊縮措施嗰陣 呢個概念消失得無影無蹤 全球化一直用喺新自由綱領裏面 全球化被認為係精英人士嘅綱領 多過係有利各方嘅事物 明日嘅全球化應該要比今日更加包容
So the question is, how can we achieve that goal? How can we balance on the one hand addressing fear and alienation while on the other hand refusing vehemently to give in to xenophobia and nationalism? That is the question for all of us. And I think, as a social scientist, that social science offers some places to start. Our transformation has to be about both ideas and about material change, and I want to give you four ideas as a starting point.
咁問題係,我哋點樣做到呢? 我哋點樣顧及恐懼、孤立嘅情緒 而拒絕仇外、民族主義呢? 呢條問題係畀我哋所有人 作為社會科學家 我覺得社會科學係解決問題嘅好開始 我哋需要係意念上同物質上轉變 我想講四個諗法作為你哋嘅開始
The first relates to the idea of civic education. What stands out from Brexit is the gap between public perception and empirical reality. It's been suggested that we've moved to a postfactual society, where evidence and truth no longer matter, and lies have equal status to the clarity of evidence. So how can we --
第一係同公民教育有關 英國脫歐最突出嘅係 公眾認知同現實差距 有人話我哋社會變成唔講事實 證據同真相唔再重要 反而大話同證據有同等地位 咁我哋點…
(Applause)
(掌聲)
How can we rebuild respect for truth and evidence into our liberal democracies? It has to begin with education, but it has to start with the recognition that there are huge gaps.
喺呢個自由民主嘅社會裏面 我哋點重新尊重真相同證據? 咁就要由教育著手 但要由認識巨大嘅差距開始
In 2014, the pollster Ipsos MORI published a survey on attitudes to immigration, and it showed that as numbers of immigrants increase, so public concern with immigration also increases, although it obviously didn't unpack causality, because this could equally be to do not so much with numbers but the political and media narrative around it. But the same survey also revealed huge public misinformation and misunderstanding about the nature of immigration. For example, in these attitudes in the United Kingdom, the public believed that levels of asylum were a greater proportion of immigration than they were, but they also believed the levels of educational migration were far lower as a proportion of overall migration than they actually are. So we have to address this misinformation, the gap between perception and reality on key aspects of globalization. And that can't just be something that's left to our schools, although that's important to begin at an early age. It has to be about lifelong civic participation and public engagement that we all encourage as societies.
2014 年,民意調查機構 Ipsos MORI 公佈一個英國人對於移民嘅態度調查 調查顯示移民嚟英國嘅人愈多 公眾愈關注移民嘅情況 雖然調查明顯無解構其中嘅因果關係 因為可能唔太關數字事 但政治同傳媒方面就覺得兩者有關係 但同一個調查發現 公眾對於移民有好大嘅誤解 例如,英國公眾相信 難民佔移民嘅比例比實際高 但佢哋同時相信 受教育嘅移民嘅比例遠低於實際 我哋要重視呢個觀感同現實嘅落差 呢個係全球化重要嘅方面 但呢樣嘢唔可以剩係由學校做 雖然由細個開始著手係重要嘅 處理落差需要花成世時間做公民參與 而呢樣正係社會所期望嘅
The second thing that I think is an opportunity is the idea to encourage more interaction across diverse communities.
第二樣我覺得同時係機遇嘅係 我哋可以鼓勵呢個分裂嘅社群 有更多交流
(Applause)
(掌聲)
One of the things that stands out for me very strikingly, looking at immigration attitudes in the United Kingdom, is that ironically, the regions of my country that are the most tolerant of immigrants have the highest numbers of immigrants. So for instance, London and the Southeast have the highest numbers of immigrants, and they are also by far the most tolerant areas. It's those areas of the country that have the lowest levels of immigration that actually are the most exclusionary and intolerant towards migrants.
當我睇返英國人對於移民態度嘅時候 其中一樣非常引起我注意 好諷刺地 最包融移民嘅地方有最多移民 例如倫敦同東南部有最多移民 而呢兩個地方都係最接納到移民 至於,有最少移民嘅地方 就最排斥同最唔能夠包融移民
So we need to encourage exchange programs. We need to ensure that older generations who maybe can't travel get access to the Internet. We need to encourage, even on a local and national level, more movement, more participation, more interaction with people who we don't know and whose views we might not necessarily agree with.
所以我哋要鼓勵交流計劃嘅出現 我哋要令未必能夠旅行嘅 上一代可以上到網 係本地或者國家層面 我哋都要鼓勵更多嘅流動、參與 鼓勵同唔識嘅人 同睇法不完全一樣嘅人 有更多嘅交流
The third thing that I think is crucial, though, and this is really fundamental, is we have to ensure that everybody shares in the benefits of globalization. This illustration from the Financial Times post-Brexit is really striking. It shows tragically that those people who voted to leave the European Union were those who actually benefited the most materially from trade with the European Union. But the problem is that those people in those areas didn't perceive themselves to be beneficiaries. They didn't believe that they were actually getting access to material benefits of increased trade and increased mobility around the world.
第三我覺得關鍵而又好基本嘅係 我哋要確保每個人 都可以享受到全球化嘅成果 呢幅圖由金融時報做 係有關後脫歐時代,好震撼 幅圖顯示想脫歐嘅人其實係 最受惠於歐盟貿易嘅物質成果 但問題係 嗰啲喺想脫歐嘅地方嘅人 唔覺得佢哋係受惠於歐盟嘅一群 佢哋唔信佢哋受惠緊 世界貿易同流動上升 所帶嚟嘅物質成果
I work on questions predominantly to do with refugees, and one of the ideas I spent a lot of my time preaching, mainly to developing countries around the world, is that in order to encourage the integration of refugees, we can't just benefit the refugee populations, we also have to address the concerns of the host communities in local areas. But in looking at that, one of the policy prescriptions is that we have to provide disproportionately better education facilities, health facilities, access to social services in those regions of high immigration to address the concerns of those local populations. But while we encourage that around the developing world, we don't take those lessons home and incorporate them in our own societies.
我主要鑽研難民問題 而我其中一個針對發展中國家 花咗好多時間宣揚嘅諗法 係若然要鼓勵難民融合 我哋唔可以剩係令難民受惠 我哋亦要顧及本土社區嘅憂慮 但睇返其中一項政策 我哋要喺有大量移民嘅地區 提供唔合比例地好嘅 教育設施、醫療設施、社會服務 以回應當地居民嘅憂慮 但當我哋喺發展中國家行呢套嘅同時 我哋冇將呢套帶返嚟我哋自己國家 用喺我哋自己社會入面
Furthermore, if we're going to really take seriously the need to ensure people share in the economic benefits, our businesses and corporations need a model of globalization that recognizes that they, too, have to take people with them.
再講,如果我哋真係要 確保人人都可以享受經濟成果 公司同企業就要一個全球化嘅示範 令佢哋明白佢哋都要對人有所承擔
The fourth and final idea I want to put forward is an idea that we need more responsible politics. There's very little social science evidence that compares attitudes on globalization. But from the surveys that do exist, what we can see is there's huge variation across different countries and time periods in those countries for attitudes and tolerance of questions like migration and mobility on the one hand and free trade on the other. But one hypothesis that I think emerges from a cursory look at that data is the idea that polarized societies are far less tolerant of globalization. It's the societies like Sweden in the past, like Canada today, where there is a centrist politics, where right and left work together, that we encourage supportive attitudes towards globalization. And what we see around the world today is a tragic polarization, a failure to have dialogue between the extremes in politics, and a gap in terms of that liberal center ground that can encourage communication and a shared understanding. We might not achieve that today, but at the very least we have to call upon our politicians and our media to drop a language of fear and be far more tolerant of one another.
第四個,亦係最後一個就係 我哋需要更負責任嘅政治 但我哋得好少社會科學嘅證據 比較啲人對全球化嘅態度 但睇返現有嘅調查 我哋可以睇到 國家之間 就算同一個國家喺唔同嘅時間 對於移民、人口流動 自由貿易嘅態度同承受能力 都有好大差別 但從呢啲數據得出一個假設係 兩極化社會更加接受唔到全球化 好似以前嘅瑞典同宜家嘅加拿大咁 都有中間路線嘅政治 左翼同右翼合作 鼓勵支持全球化 但我哋今時今日見到嘅兩極化係悲慘嘅 政治極端兩邊嘅人冇辦法對話 兩班人都失去咗中間自由嘅光譜 而呢個中間地帶 卻可以鼓勵兩邊溝通同體諒對方 我哋未必今日做到 但至少我哋要呼籲政客同傳媒 用詞唔好再係表達恐懼
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而係更包容呢兩個極端
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These ideas are very tentative, and that's in part because this needs to be an inclusive and shared project.
呢啲諗法都係初步 咁係因為解決方案需要多方意見
I am still British. I am still European. I am still a global citizen. For those of us who believe that our identities are not mutually exclusive, we have to all work together to ensure that globalization takes everyone with us and doesn't leave people behind. Only then will we truly reconcile democracy and globalization.
我仲係英國人 我仲係歐洲人 我仲係世界公民 相信我哋身份並唔係互相排斥嘅我哋 我哋要走埋一齊 確保全球化唔會抌低我哋任何一個 只有嗰陣
Thank you.
我哋先真正將民主同全球化調和
多謝
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